I've always been a Webb fan and I hope to see him do well.
He's certainly looking fit, as everyone's mentioned. And his kick is getting slightly better. He didn't get dropped quite as bad at Oxy as he did at Stanford, and he was racing against better kickers. He's rounding into shape.
That said, his last 300 especially is still leaving something to be desired. It appears that he's been holding back on speedwork, and is running mostly off strength. 3:38/13:49 and 1:51 and 3:37 season bests speak to that. It appears he's been racing tired while running high mileage, and possibly not even kicking all out on the last lap. We'd all like to believe that Vig and he have this master plan and that he'll be developing the speed over the next month and will show up at the trials with a big kick. It's a popular theory and I hope it's true.
However, it's also just as likely that the lack of speed development is unintentional. Or that they've been holding back from speed to be cautious to avoid a specific injury in a sensitive area. That he hasn't laid it all out in the last 200 to avoid hurting himself. When it gets to be the last few weeks before the trials, they'll have to roll the dice and sharpen up. Hopefully that results in a fast and fit Webb at the trials, not an injured one.
We'll see which one turns out to be true. I certainly would love to see him do well. I was a HS class of '01 guy and Webb's been one of my running heroes since I was 17, despite the highs and lows. I would love to see him make the team.
But I worry that we'll see something similar to the '08 trials. He could sharpen up quite a bit in the next month, and develop a decent kick. A kick good enough to beat most of the field. But not quite good enough to beat the best kickers. I can't see him in the next month sharpening up enough to beat guys like Centro, Manzano, Lomong, Torrence, Andrews (who knows if he's running the 1500) or Wheating (who knows what shape he'll be in) at their best. When they're on, several of those guys have very lethal kicks. Webb could have a fantastic race and still finish 4th or 5th again.
His best bet would be to throw down with about 700 left like he did in '04. He didn't really need to do it back then, but now he would. However he hasn't shown any indication he'll be able to do that. Maybe he can...
I see Webb getting better...but if those 6 are there at 400 to go, plus Torrence...I have a hard time seeing 2012 Webb in the top 3. He probably wouldn't get last, but not in the top 3.
I'd love it if he proves me wrong. I hope he does. But whether he makes it or not, if he stays healthy, I would not be surprised to see him run 3:33 in August or September. A little bit of Adam Goucher style vengeance if he can have the fastest American time of the year.