His 1500 time is about what you would expect based on his 10k/5k capabilities. I would say a low 3:34x if he got into the right race and maybe even 3:33 if he dedicated himself to it, but it would be at the expense of the long stuff. You can only serve one or 2 masters, not three. An athlete is generally only capable of moving up or down one event and maintain the same level of competitiveness. Also, as a 1:49 800m runners, there is always going to be a practical limit to how fast Rupp can run a 1500m. When get into the 3:32 range, the athletes are almost always 1:45x 800m runner.
Could Rupp get down to 3:31 or even 3:30 for the 1500 if he trained for it?
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TrackCoach wrote:
His 1500 time is about what you would expect based on his 10k/5k capabilities. I would say a low 3:34x if he got into the right race and maybe even 3:33 if he dedicated himself to it, but it would be at the expense of the long stuff. You can only serve one or 2 masters, not three. An athlete is generally only capable of moving up or down one event and maintain the same level of competitiveness. Also, as a 1:49 800m runners, there is always going to be a practical limit to how fast Rupp can run a 1500m. When get into the 3:32 range, the athletes are almost always 1:45x 800m runner.
I think the OP was being mostly hypothetical, as in IF rupp focused on and trained for the 1500, which he won't. I'd argue that if rupp got into a diamond league 1500 even as he currently trains he could go 3:32, maybe under. 3:34 earlier this season was essentially an opener and a workout for rupp. Now imagine after 2 more months of training, racing and finally peaking at a diamond league 1500.
I have a hard time believing that wheating from a couple years ago is 2 seconds better than rupp currently. -
Rupp is an incredible talent. I could see 3:29 high if he put in a good year of work on just the 1500. The guy is probably in sub 12:50 shape, which is certainly around 3:30.00
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What are Rupp's 200 and 400 capabilities? "Out of the blocks," not relay.
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It makes way more sense that he can run 3:31for 1500 than 2:06 in the marathon but letsrun experts think he will be a great marathoner.
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Great tactic wrote:
It makes way more sense that he can run 3:31for 1500 than 2:06 in the marathon but letsrun experts think he will be a great marathoner.
I don't know a lot about the marathon, but debuting in 60 minutes in NYC seems a very good sign. -
I think if he got in the right race in Europe and paced himself properly, he would do it on the training he does now.
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no 3:32 maybe but who cares
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this year, not previous years, but this year he has shown the speed to run a fine 1500m, between oxy 1500m and trials 5000m, and I would think that Salazar would have him run some underdistance races prior to the Olympics to sharpen and get him ready for the speed it will take to win. There isn't that much time left and his first event is the 10000m, so I think that he will run a 1500m or 3000m and probably a fast 5000m to get some confidence that he can run with those sub 12:50 guys.
But if he does not race underdistance beforehand, he'll surely be going for the American record after the Olympics in several distances, which might be aided by a fast 1500m.
My guesses:
1500m-3:32.5
3000m-7:27
5000m-12:47
10000m-26:31 -
Why do we think Rupp is slower than Mottram? Rupp is way better than Mottram ever was. Mottram ran 3:48.
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you guys are delusional. It seems like the majority of you think he can go 3:31 in the 1500, and then 2:04/5 some day in the marathon. And probably near WR's at every other distance in between?? (that would be the logical conclusion of such range). Don't hold your breath for a 12:45 or 26:30. Please don't be delusional. He's the best (time-wise) US distance runner ever. He's run under 26:50 and under 13:00. That is amazing. Let's not get carried away and now predict absurd jumps from there.
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mottram was 3-5 in the world.
probably was a sub 12:50 guy with 3:48 mile.
which is the identical territory that moorcroft was in 20 or so years ago.
rupp has entered that stratosphere. i got him 332 in the right race.
the next and final stratosphere is occupied by only kohmen, bekele and gebreselasse.
this OG it may take a "final stratosphere" effort to go gold.
we'll see. -
Paula Cliffebar wrote:
you guys are delusional. It seems like the majority of you think he can go 3:31 in the 1500, and then 2:04/5 some day in the marathon. And probably near WR's at every other distance in between?? (that would be the logical conclusion of such range). Don't hold your breath for a 12:45 or 26:30. Please don't be delusional. He's the best (time-wise) US distance runner ever. He's run under 26:50 and under 13:00. That is amazing. Let's not get carried away and now predict absurd jumps from there.
This post is worth remembering. Anyone who can open up their season essentially with at 3:34 in the states, while training for the olympics in the 10K can certainly take off a few seconds in a diamond league 1500 after some sharpening. Just as Wheating and Centro and Ulrey and so many others have done, despite specifically training for the 1500 all season.
Now with Rupps 26:48 and 60 minute debut half (in NYC) do you really think 2:04/5 is out of the question in the future? I think the odds are better that he goes at least that fast than he doesn't.
In terms of track, it depends how much longer he sticks with it but I'm sure sub 12:50 & sub 26:40 are in his future if he has 2 or 3 more summers of running on the track. -
Barakus Obama wrote:
The kenyans will run a team trial. Top 5 would be HUGE for Rupp.
Kenyans didn't win a freaking medal last year in the 5k or 10k. They sh*t the bed, hard. Wouldn't surprise me if they did it again, too much pressure from home, stupid training camp, etc. -
I don't think there is any question he could do it if he made the event his primary focus.
However, I doubt if he would be as good of racer. His speed among 1500 runners would probably be mediocre. -
Dennis Reynolds wrote:
Kenyans didn't win a freaking medal last year in the 5k or 10k. They sh*t the bed, hard. Wouldn't surprise me if they did it again, too much pressure from home, stupid training camp, etc.
I don't think the Kenyans will medal in the 5k or 10k this year either. But, nor do I think Rupp will.
