Great thread. I have given this a little bit of thought.
Look at Wanjiru's 5k splits for London in 2009.
5 km 0:14:08 25 km 1:13:35
10 km 0:28:30 30 km 1:28:35
15 km 0:43:12 35 km 1:43:18
20 km 0:58:14 40 km 1:58:32
half 1:01:36 finish 2:05:10
No one these days goes out in 14:08. I believe this is also the race where there was a 4:25 19th mile in there. Samuel may not have made every break in Beijing, nor did he show up with his A-game all the time. When he did, it was a sight to behold.
I think Wanjiru **13:12 at 17, 26:41WJR/59:16WR at 18, 58:33WR at 19** was probably the greatest marathon talent we've ever seen. The sad truth is that we will never know who is better. If he was still here, you have to imagine he'd be challenging for Gold at London as well this year. Isn't that crazy to think about!?!?
It hurts me to say this, but I think Geoffrey Mutai would win in a matchup if you took Samuel at his state before passing. Geoffrey's 40+ second win at Kenyan XC nationals shows his incredible, practically inhuman dominance in a modern era. Samuel would have needed to give up the boozin to make it a fair battle.
Samuel could have gone under 4 minutes for the mile no doubt, I think we can agree on that. Could Geoffrey Mutai? How much speed does he have in those legs that run 150 miles a week? In a tactical race like Chicago 2010, Samuel always seems to have a card up his sleeve. Then again, Geoffrey knows how to take control and pushes far from the finish line, putting strain on everyone to keep up or give up. Their matchup would have been insane and I'm getting upset thinking about it. !@#$