Will a woman ever run a 4 minute mile?

Jarmila K. wrote:

I should have gone for the mile. I could break 4:00 and I could also break YOU. (Scratches balls)

Most women's records are 9 to 11 percent slower than the corresponding men's records. At 12.25 percent slower, Kratochvilova's 1:53 is among the weakest. Masterkova was 13 percent slower than El G, the worst women's record after the steeple.

While women may be comparatively bad at MD, the women's SB 3000 this year was only 10 percent slower than the men's. 9.9 percent if you count indoors.

puck wrote:

amp wrote:

The 4:12 and change was set 16 years ago. Is it really that good?

It was run by a Russian. I don't know if it's a legit record...

I think a woman could run a 4 minute mile but it would be the equivalent of a man running like a sub 26 10k; possible but highly unlikely.

Hahahaha hahahah, I can't believe you actually compared a women running a 4:00 mile to a guy breaking 26 in the 10k!!

4:12-4:00 That's a full 12 seconds

A 10k is 6.212 times that distance and Bekele was only 17 seconds away, and not only that, his 5k WR is comparatively better, w/ a 12:37 he could have at least done around 26:08

The 10k isn't as popular so there's more room for time to go down especially w/ it being a higher distance... But 12 seconds off a WR that has already stood for 16 years itself is something else... Just like a 3:33 mile, not happening very soon... A 2 hour marathon will happen first...

The record should already be under 4:10 to give the equivilant to the 1500m time.

For some reason they run the womens mile much less than even the mens so I'll say not for the forseeable future

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Hahahaha hahahah, I can't believe you actually compared a women running a 4:00 mile to a guy breaking 26 in the 10k!!

Hahahaha hahahah, I can't believe you actually wrote "a women" hahahaha

Kicker wrote:

When a man run 3:38 for the mile a woman will run under four.

It might take a bit longer than that. Women's middle distance races are tactically different from men's races. The women tend to watch each other more so there is rarely a fast race.

puck wrote:

amp wrote:

The 4:12 and change was set 16 years ago. Is it really that good?

It was run by a Russian. I don't know if it's a legit record...

I think a woman could run a 4 minute mile but it would be the equivalent of a man running like a sub 26 10k; possible but highly unlikely.

4:12 for the mile is worse than 3:50 1500m and seems fairly legit. It's probably equivalent to 3:53. Even if it were drug-assisted, maybe it's fair to say women could run sub 4:15.

Knocking 12 seconds off a mile time is significantly tougher than 17 seconds off a 10,000m time!

Of course these things aren't entirely linear, but they're probably fairly close. If they were, going from a 4:12.56 record to 4:00.00 would be like the men's marathon record going from 2:02:57 to about 1:56:50.

Another way of looking at it:

How many women have run sub 2:30 for 1000m?

It might be quite a few years before women run sub 3:00 for 1200m (of course this is slower anyway...)

amp wrote:

The 4:12 and change was set 16 years ago. Is it really that good?

Yes, when the white genocide is complete and our melanin bloodline is pure again.

Masterkova only had 53.12 speed at 400 meters.

5k record 4ever wrote:

miler-xy wrote: It took the men 69 years to progress from 4.12 to sub 4. However, there was gradual improvement over time. The women are progressively getting slower. Therefore, you can't compare the two. NOT ONE SINGLE WOMAN BROKE 4 MINUTES IN THE 1500m IN 2011! Therefore, the women are currently at 4:18 in the mile. Compared to other events, women are terrible at the 1500m/mile.

A man ran a world record 12:37 for 5k in 2004. In 2008 the best, by the same man, was 12:50. In 2010 the world best was 12:51. Prior to 2004 there was a gradual improvement over time. The MEN are progressively getting slower over time. Therefore, you CAN compare the slowing times of men and women. NOT ONE SINGLE MAN BROKE 12:50 for 5k in from 2004 through 2010! Therefore, the men are terrible at the 5000m.

False. in 2006 Kenenisa Bekele ran sub 12'50 twice at Zürich and Bruxelles. 12'48"25 and 12'48"09 respectively. Also Issac Songok broke 12'50 in the same race as Bekele in Zürich running 12'48"66

ukathleticscoach wrote:

The record should already be under 4:10 to give the equivilant to the 1500m time.

For some reason they run the womens mile much less than even the mens so I'll say not for the forseeable future

3:50.46 Qu Yunxia CHN

3:50.98 Jiang Bo CHN

3:51.92 Wang Junxia CHN

3:52.47 Tatyana Kazankina RUS

3:53.91 Yin Lili CHN

3:53.96 Paula Ivan ROU 8 3:53.97

All drugged. Sub 4 mile is never going to happen

It's going to happen with or without drugs.

The read 'performance enhancing drug' is completely natural and legal. It's caled adrenalin. Look it up.

And 53 seconds for 400 is plently fast enough for a sub 4 mile for someone with good endurance.

Christine Hughes of New Zealand ran 4:02 at the Queen Street Mile in 1983. I'm sure there's a woman out there who could run 3:59 on that course.

Here is the next group! I like Cain or Efraimson to break 3:50, that will put us one step closer to a woman someday breaking that record. Not sure it will happen, it will take a fast chick!

1500 METRES - WOMEN - JUNIOR - OUTDOOR - 2014

Best by AthleteAll

2014 TOP LIST

RANK MARK COMPETITOR DOB NAT POS VENUE DATE

1 3:59.53 Dawit SEYAUM 27 JUL 1996 Ethiopia ETH 1 Marrakech (Le Grande Stade) 08 JUN 2014

2 4:02.83 Gudaf TSEGAY 23 JAN 1997 Ethiopia ETH 2 Beijing 21 MAY 2014

3 4:06.34 Mary CAIN 3 MAY 1996 United States USA 2 Sacramento, CA 29 JUN 2014

4 4:07.05 Alexa EFRAIMSON 20 FEB 1997 United States USA 10 New York (Icahn), NY 14 JUN 2014

5 4:07.34 Sofia ENNAOUI 30 AUG 1995 Poland POL 1 Szczecin 07 JUN 2014

5 4:07.34 Kokebe TESFAYE 5 MAY 1997 Ethiopia ETH 1 Montreuil-sous-Bois 07 JUL 2014

7 4:08.49 Senbere TEFERI 3 MAY 1995 Ethiopia ETH 3 Tokyo 11 MAY 2014

8 4:08.62 Tigist GASHAW 25 DEC 1996 Ethiopia ETH 1r1 Montbéliard 06 JUN 2014

9 4:10.95 Elise CRANNY 9 MAY 1996 United States USA 6r1 Palo Alto, CA 04 MAY 2014

10 4:11.21 Sheila Chepngetich KETER 27 JUN 1995 Kenya KEN 3 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 27 JUL 2014

11 4:13.80 Winfred MBITHE 30 MAY 1997 Kenya KEN 7 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 27 JUL 2014

12 4:14.66 Anastasía-Panayióta MARINÁKOU 12 JUN 1996 Greece GRE 5 Tallinn (Kadriorg) 22 JUN 2014

13 4:14.73 Sahily DIAGO 26 AUG 1995 Cuba CUB 2 La Habana (Estadio Panamericano) 09 OCT 2014

14 4:15.08 Amy GRIFFITHS 22 MAR 1996 Great Britain & N.I. GBR 1 Birmingham, GBR 12 JUL 2014

15 4:15.14 Aníta HINRIKSDÓTTIR 13 JAN 1996 Iceland ISL 1r1 Amsterdam 24 MAY 2014

16 4:15.23 Anna LAMAN 25 MAY 1995 Australia AUS 8 Perth (Western AAC), AUS 22 FEB 2014

17 4:16.47 Bobby CLAY 19 MAY 1997 Great Britain & N.I. GBR 8 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 27 JUL 2014

18 4:16.65 Rosa FLANAGAN 28 FEB 1996 New Zealand NZL 9r1 Victoria, CAN 08 JUL 2014

19 4:17.00 Gabriela STAFFORD 13 SEP 1995 Canada CAN 1 Charlottesville, VA 10 MAY 2014

20 4:17.01 Katelyn AYERS 9 FEB 1995 Canada CAN 9 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 27 JUL 2014

Downhill doesn't count. I can run 40 seconds faster for a downhill mile, I'm sure most milers can too.

Clearly downhill doesn't count. I was just responding to that one specific comment.

Just found this old thread. Dibaba has run 3:50 since, and with a probability of being clean that is higher than that of the russians and chinese.

Now that the women's mile record is equivalent to 4:08.5, I'd say that it will happen sooner than we may think. The men advanced from 4:09.2 to 3:59.4 in 23 years. However, the sport was still new, and training methods were undeveloped, so it will be longer than 22 years. It may be more accurate to see how long it took the men to advance 8.5 seconds up to the current record. That is 33 years, Ryun's 3:51.3 to El G's 3:43.13.

So now that the sport is even further along, but women's running is still less developed than men's, I would say that if women are physically capable at all of running sub-4:00, one will do it in 40-45 years.

Agree. Will never happen.

I heard a rumor that Nike is interested in a "breaking 4" (for the women's mile) project, similar to breaking 2.

The sub 4 minute mile is asymptotic for the women. As the decades go by they will get closer and closer but never break that barrier.