Kenyans MEN'S 10000m Olympic Trials FINALLY in the U.S, name your picks?

12:53 x 2= 25:46 + 1 minute is the standard formula for calculating a 5000m MALE elite conversion to 10000m, that would put Lagat at 26:45-46 conversatively. Rupp has already run 26:48 and have showed a steady progression each year but I don't think he will improve by 22 seconds like he did from 2010 to 2011; therefore, a safe estimate if he remains healthy would be from 26:48 to 26:40. In a race without pacers Rupp wouldn't force the pace from far enough out and Lagat would easily outkick him prior to 2013.

"conversatively"

No way is 26:45 a conversational pace. Not even for Lagat!

GalenLagat wrote:Rupp has already run 26:48 and have showed a steady progression each year but I don't think he will improve by 22 seconds like he did from 2010 to 2011; therefore, a safe estimate if he remains healthy would be from 26:48 to 26:40

i think he was already in close to 26'40 shape in his 26'48pb

remember, it was a slowish 5k & pretty unambitious pre-race request for pacing ( i think only 26'50 ) - rupp went 13'26/13'21, consistent with 26'50 requested ( he was in lead group )

more ambitious 5k & i think he wouda had little trouble following it - in the end he lost because of superior speed of others, but he didn't fade in last laps

it's a bit greedy complaining of a 26'48, but he can feel shortchanged as he had a good few more secs in him !

ventolin^3 wrote:

it's a bit greedy complaining of a 26'48, but he can feel shortchanged as he had a good few more secs in him !

There is no distance runner who has ever competed whom YOU wouldn't say this about.

Lagat even though he states he is training for the 5000m has yet to run 100m a week and I think he rarely tops 90m a week. Lagat does well off low mileage for a elite 5000m man due to his eery ability to have great endurance off low mileage. If he was to run right around a 100m a week like most 5000m men Lagat wouldn't have a problem running sub 12:47 and 26:40 providing he could remain healthy during that training!

To the poster who mentioned Geoffrey Mutai. Mutai doesn't want to represent Kenya in any 10000m championship since his marathon success. He had the opporturnity at the 2011 World Championship after he place 4th at the Kenyan Trials; however, Kenyan had to go all the way down to the 6th place finisher to find their 3rd 10000m male competitor.

jennifer cruz wrote:There is no distance runner who has ever competed whom YOU wouldn't say this about.

that's the laws of physics

if anyone cares to post rupp's 1k splits in his 26'48, i'll do the flattened-out time

even better woud be the individual 25 lap splits for a more accurate estimate

This is a Kenyan-only race. So no Americans, e.g., Galen Rupp, Bernard Lagat.

So are there going to be two elite 10000m races for men- one for the Kenyan Olympic Trials and one for open male elites?

MAYBE. If the Pre Classic has two separate Men's 10,000m races, they will be on different days, e.g., Kenya Friday night and everyone else on Saturday some time. The Pre Classic doesn't usually run 10,000m, especially since they ran one last year.

More likely, they'll run a 5K for the Galen, Mo, Teg, Solinsky, Dathan, and some fast Ethiopians like Merga.

ventolin^3 wrote:that's the laws of physics

if anyone cares to post rupp's 1k splits in his 26'48, i'll do the flattened-out time

even better woud be the individual 25 lap splits for a more accurate estimate

not generous with flattening out initial 8k splits + 8400m + 9k + next 200 + final 2 laps

works out ~ high-26'46

haven't seen all 25 lap splits posted ( likely never available )

i'd hazard they'd offer

~ 26'43/26'44

( based on rono when his 27'22wr was offered more splits ended up near 27'10 ! )