HEPS track and field--OUTDOOR 2012

Brett's moving today so he is out of commission today.

Okay, Penn stuff is up on TFRRS so I'll get started. Not likely to post anything before tomorrow morning, though.

Not to beat a dead horse, but just a final reminder: I'm going with what's on TFRRS. From a quick glance at the results from these last two weeks' meets--particularly including the backup meets from this past weekend--it would seem that there may be some fairly important injury problems now. I'm not going to take account of those.

I had hoped that Penn would resolve some questions (esp. the 4x800 situation) more fully. But I'll go with what I've got. Similarly, things like helpful/hindering weather conditions or "generous" jumping pits are beyond my purview--even though it's possible, in one or two cases, that healthy individuals who currently have top-six marks will not be entered in the meet!

I *will* encourage others, those with more than my slim acquaintance of the various programs, to give their best input, and I do hope shazzuy will have a chance to look at the virtual scoring and the performance lists: I believe the throws will be extremely important--critical--in at least one of the two team races, and his comments would be much appreciated.

Good night. More in the a.m.

Here's the updated virtual scoring. If you want to compare it with that from two weeks ago, just go back a couple pages in this thread--I didn't want to confuse people (including myself) by trying to post both the old and the new here.

MEN'S VIRTUAL SCORING

Individual running events (IRE): Princeton 92, Cornell 91, Columbia 49, Brown 27, Dartmouth 23, Harvard 12, Yale 10, Penn 5

Field events minus decathlon (FEMD): Cornell 92, Princeton 54, Harvard 48, Yale 16, Brown 13, Penn 12, Dartmouth 9, Columbia 2

IRE + FEMD: Cornell 183, Princeton 146, Harvard 60, Columbia 51, Brown 40, Dartmouth 32, Yale 26, Penn 17

IRE + FEMD + Relays: Cornell 211, Princeton 162, Columbia 65, Harvard 65, Dartmouth 43, Brown 40, Yale 36, Penn 26

IRE + FEMD + Decathlon: Cornell 195, Princeton 159, Harvard 60, Columbia 51, Brown 46, Dartmouth 32, Yale 26, Penn 17

Everything: Cornell 223, Princeton 175, Columbia 65, Harvard 65, Brown 46, Dartmouth 43, Yale 36, Penn 26

Though the biggest gainer in this rescoring is Dartmouth, which tripled its projected total score, Princeton also gained points (14)--though mostly at the expense of the Other Six, with Cornell only dropping from 226 to 223.

Nevertheless, I see the meet between those two as quite close, because Cornell's scoring depends on keeping one or two men very (implausibly) busy; and, with the NCAA Regional meet another three weeks away, I can imagine that Princeton might try to wring every possible point from its cadre of middle-/distance runners. As they were indoors, I imagine the Big Red will be the Other Six's biggest fans when the longer races are under way.

In addition, some of Cornell's projected scoring performances seem to have been helped by substantial wind aid. I think getting something like the projected points in the three heavy throws will be very important for CU.

Another potential factor: it's got to be easier for fans to get to Penn from Princeton than from Ithaca. Fan turnouts, esp. at the field venues, might make a difference.

Comments--C/M? shazzuy? Anyone have reliable injury updates?

WOMEN'S VIRTUAL SCORING

Individual running events (IRE): Cornell 106, Columbia 52, Brown 45, Princeton 42, Dartmouth 28, Harvard 25, Penn 24, Yale 19

Big movers here were Dartmouth and Brown, which added 14 and 15 points respectively. Cornell added a few points, and Penn held steady; all others dropped several points.

Field events minus heptathlon (FEMH): Cornell 60, Harvard 54, Columbia 33, Brown 30, Princeton 26, Penn 25, Dartmouth 16, Yale 4

Now projected to score in each field event, Cornell was the big winner here, gaining 12 points in a fortnight. Brown added a point, Columbia six, and Princeton held steady; everyone else lost a few points.

IRE + FEMH: Cornell 166, Columbia 85, Harvard 79, Brown 75, Princeton 68, Penn 49, Dartmouth 44, Yale 23

IRE + FEMH + Relays: Cornell 182, Princeton 94, Columbia 93, Harvard 90, Brown 79, Penn 69, Dartmouth 44, Yale 28

IRE + FEMH + Heptathlon: Cornell 166, Columbia 85, Princeton 82, Harvard 79, Brown 75, Dartmouth 59, Penn 51, Yale 23

Everything: Cornell 182, Princeton 108, Columbia 93, Harvard 90, Brown 79, Penn 71, Dartmouth 59, Yale 28

Based on my skimming of the last two weekends' results, I had not expected such a clear-cut advantage for Cornell at this point: their relays at Penn did not make a lot of noise, for instance. But despite a few gaps--most surprisingly, they project no scoring in the individual 400 and 800!--they are solid in most events and project multiple scorers in several.

Nevertheless, I expect the other women's teams to cut Cornell's margin substantially. As anticipated, Princeton (particularly) and Columbia have improved, with Brown moving up very well. The relays will be the real wild card and could determine several places, with Brown (four points), Columbia (eight), and Dartmouth (none?) projecting well below what I see as their potential.

In fact, as indoor, Dartmouth has the potential to bump its scoring very significantly, if it chooses to use its middle- and distance runners optimally--if not maximally. The same potential for more points in those events seems to be Princeton's; frankly, I think the Tigers could make this meet "interesting," though their deficit in the field events may just be too much.

That's it for this year. Corrections and comments invited!

Forecast for Phil still okay-ish for the weekend, but not as encouraging as it was a few days ago...

I was going through the listings today and while the majority of the teams have attempted a relay, not everyone has done them. For example, only four women teams have done a 4x800 and I believe there are one team holdouts for the men's 4x400 and 4x100.

No signs of Peter Callahan but rumor has it that he frequently has issues with his feet. Perhaps he'll debut at Heps? I have no idea.

Actually, I think the weather will be fine for this weekend, although it will be warmer on Saturday than Sunday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0

I'm actually quite curious on how Columbia will distribute their middle distance crew. Their 4x800 team looked really good at Penn Relays, where they did better than Princeton and Cornell. And yet, for the 4xMile and DMR, Columbia lost out on both events due to the tactical final leg and being outkicked by Cabral (although Merber was anchor for both of those relays). I think Columbia men can be deadly with their middle distance crew and make the team competition more interesting, particularly if they are taking away those points from Cornell and Princeton.

I do wonder if Melissa Hewitt will still be as clutch as she was 2 years ago. Frosh Katie Woodford has stepped up in the sprints but due to all of those wind-aided jump performances, I'm not so sure who will fill in Hewitt's spot on the jumps. No recorded jumps for Hewitt yet I can see. Perhaps Columbia women and Princeton women will eat away at it. Then again, Cornell appears well rounded enough that they could pull away with the team title again unless a lot of things go wrong.

Mozia and McCullough: I feel that the shot put and hammer are their events to lose. Shazzguy, feel free to correct me.

And unless Reynolds comes up with something big on his home turf, I bet Blair could take the high jump title.

Just my thoughts for now. Thanks for the analysis kirbitzer.

Edit after proof read: I comment a couple of times throughout how some of the events only have a couple seniors in the top X or Y, but after looking at all the throwing events, I realized that out of all the Ivy League throwers, there are only like 6 *INDIVIDUALS* in the top ten over all 8 events. It is AWESOME! The next couple years are going to rock!

Well, first thing I want to comment on is how impressed I am with how Men's Shot is turning out. I honestly thought it would be the Mozia-Glauser show for the next couple years, but I am seeing some more young guys starting to creep up the lists. Pretty decent competition if 11th going in to Heps is 52 feet. Still predicting Mozia with the win, Glauser 2, and a toss-up between Belden and Brode for 3 & 4. After that, it really depends on if Park can perform as well as he has in the past and lock in 5th (or challenge a poor performing Belden or Brode for 4th), or if Smith from Brown can snag a podium spot along with another underclass sleeper like in Indoors with Liokumovich. A great set of young men will look to make this a very exciting next couple of years.

Women's Shot is about how I expected, predicting Imbesi with the win despite her struggles in Jav, and Watt for 2nd. I would give her a better chance at snagging first, but she is EXTREMELY inconsistent this year, having thrown over 14 meters outdoors only once this season. Dartmouth picks up some much needed points as well, but not many. Just like we saw at indoors, I am expecting MANY ladies between 41 and 44 feet all vying for a place on the podium. Lookout for this field to EXPLODE next year, as there is only 1 Senior in the top 12, and I know of at least one excellent recruit coming in to the Ivy League (Penn) who will challenge Imbesi and Watt for leadership of the league right away.

Men's Disc is about where we left off, except Levine is nipping at Mozia's heels by 0.02 meters and a few others have moved forward a couple more feet each. Mozia looks to be struggling lately with the disc, so we will see how things go for Cornell here. It is a VERY close field going in to Heps, with the top 7 all within 8 feet of each other. Levine is still my favorite going in to Heps as he PR'd to 178 at last year's outdoor Heps, but again, don't count anyone else out quite yet. Another VERY young and VERY exciting field. Look for 160 to move into finals, and 175 at least to win. Next year, 165 and 180, maybe more with how much talent is still developing, and the addition of Sam Mattis to Penn next year.

Women's Disc looks about the same (going Watt over Chukwunonso due to consistency and experience), except Dishong from Cornell moved up a couple spots, and I just now noticed a Freshmen from Columbia, Joanna Koronios, who is currently 8th. Koronios threw 150 feet in High School, which would get her top 4 if she can produce at Heps, so watch out for her to snag some points for Columbia. The same goes for Deford of Cornell. Both of those Freshmen girls have some major raw talent that just needs some refining. Deford practically throws her shot and disc as far standing as she does from a full throw. Interested to see how she develops next year, as she is already noticeably thinner from when I saw her at indoor Heps. One thing about this field of ladies is many of them are not throwing consistently, so predicting anything past 2nd is not going to be accurate at all... many of them have thrown 140 feet this year, but all their other throws are 10-20 below that. This is a hard one to get a bead on... in all honesty, I would not be surprised to see upper 140's win, with Craker of Brown, currently third, wearing Gold.

Men's Hammer has seen some great improvements this last weekend. Both Levine from Yale and Glauser from Harvard broke 190, making a solid three way fight for 2-4 with Fiedler from Cornell who did not compete last weekend. After a disappointing indoor Heps, look for Dickerson of Columbia to come back and PR at 180 for 4th, and Servino from Dartmouth to challenge him right around 180 and snag 5th. Another event group with a ton of youth. Only 1 Senior event listed on the TFFRS list... Only lock is McCullough. Again, I cannot stress how much fun it is to watch him throw... come watch him before its too late!!! He missed last year due to eligibility (grades) issues, and we don't want to miss the opportunity to see him develop even further!

Women's Hammer saw Craker of Brown move her lead out another 5 feet, showing her push to hit 200 before she graduates next year. Still going with Ekechukwu of Harvard for second, however she can be very inconsistent so Rossi from Cornell could beat her if she PR's. She is shooting for 180 this weekend from my conversations with people at Penn Relays, so look for her to push others hard. Freshmen Vermillion from Brown has been fairly consistent right around 168, so I would expect her for 4th or 5th, and from there, a large cluster of ladies vying for the last couple spots around low 160's/upper 150's. Another young field, with 2 Seniors in the top 17, and a little bird told me of at least two incoming freshmen for the Ivy League that each have thrown 200+. FUN!

****JAVELIN CAVEAT****

Javelin is a tough sport to predict as the throws can be VERY inconsistent, and the training throughout the season puts them in great jeopardy of constant injury. Someone can throw excellent one week, and crappy two weeks later due to a high training load. Most *good* Jav throwers will only compete 2-3 times before Heps, as you want to have at least two weeks off between competitions to rest your body. And even then, they may only throw at full speed at one or two meets, with the others being 75% effort throws. A little known fact is the optimal angle in the knee at the release of the Javelin is around 186 degrees, which for all us sooper smrt Ivee grads ;), means the knee is hyper-extended, leading to major knee issues. Most of us have knees that stop at 180... The arm goes into positions that would possibly tear or strain the ligaments of a normal person. In ages past, Finnish throwers, who are to Javelin Throwing as Ethiopians or Kenyans are to Distance running, would throw and throw and throw until they would actually snap a certain ligament in their arm, and then have surgery to improve their flexibility and stability of their throwing arm... talk about dedication. So long story short, Jav is a freaking toss-up....

Men's Jav is hard to not give right to Freshman Sullivan from Harvard, however since his nice opening throw of 219, he has not thrown over 205 and has been stagnant around 200. Again, I am surprised at Keeling from Brown, as he is a solid 25 feet below what he threw last year and has only thrown twice so far this year... concerns of injuries creep to mind. I would not be surprised, at all, to see Brett Gilson, who is actually a MULTI, win this event outright if Sullivan has a bad day. A huge drop in distances in Men's Jav this year, one I am hoping our wonderful coaching staff can fix in the next couple years. Hmmmm... prediction is withheld, but I would not be surprised if this event is won with low 200 feet, disappointing low after such great throwers these past 10 years.

Women's Jav is about where it was last week, with my hopes of huge numbers dashed to the runway like so much used tape and wrap. I did not ever speak with anyone from Harvard about their Javelin thrower and Heps champ from last year, Hannah Mayer, but I still have not seen her open, so I am guessing she is out this season. That puts Wheeler from Penn and Al-Hassan from Brown in great winning/scoring position as 1 and 2 currently. I would not be surprised to see Imbesi from Cornell or Reid from Cornell surpass them however, as Imbesi is well under her PR from last year (151 I think), as well as Reid, who is a Freshmen but very raw. I watched her throw at Penn Relays, and if she can connect the dots, she could easily win. Like before, Cornell picks up lots of points, but not as many due to Imbesi not performing as well as in the past. Look for High 140's to win, maybe 150's if Imbesi connects, and at least 135 to place.

C/M Runner wrote:

Mozia and McCullough: I feel that the shot put and hammer are their events to lose. Shazzguy, feel free to correct me.

Completely agree. Mozia is still a little inconsistent, only occasionally marking 60+, whereas Glauser of Harvard is super consistent right around 58. As long as Mozia keeps his composure, he should be a lock. However, last year, Belden of Cornell was a lock in Shot for both indoor and out, and he choked both times, throwing around 53 feet and taking like 6th. Hopefully Mozia can break the cycle.

Wathcing McCullough throw is like watching the wind blow, its just so freaking natural. Ruh Roh, I feel a little man crush brewing.... lets hope his grades hold out this year.

Shazzuy, it's a pleasure to read your commentaries. It's great to hear from those of you who actually speak with the athletes, coaches, and others closely involved.

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Just for gits and shiggles, following my earlier remarks about its potentially being easier now for coaches to figure out their entries, I looked to see how many people Cornell had in the top six marks for each event, plus those not currently in scoring position but in the top ten.

And I had to laugh: if my check was correct, the total was 36 for each (men 25+11, women 22+14)!

[Doesn't work that way, I realize: some top-tenners who are nowhere close to the top six aren't likely to be picked, and neither are a few top-six folks (health reasons mostly, but maybe not exclusively); plus a couple might be picked just for relay duty, and one or two up-and-comers could get a shot.]

On the women's side, especially, the Big Red have got some people (e.g. Hewitt, DeFord) who are out of the top six but seem likely to score. And after CU scored 13 points in the two events indoors, I was pretty surprised to see that they're currently "shut out" of the 400 and 800. Things change...

Claire Dishong of Cornell is in the discus? Wow, because Dishong is also in the top 6 in the pole vault. Some combo! And according to TFRRS, she has also dabbled once in the hammer.

http://www.tfrrs.org/athletes/2741803.html

Yep, Dishong is a terrific athlete. Note that as a freshman she scored in both events at Heps:

http://cornellbigred.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=24589&path=wtrack

Brett has put up a nice listing of the top marks in each event at hepstrack.com. I appreciate the comments he adds: top returning scorers, etc.

It's very amazing on how much the Ivy League record book is going to be changed after this outdoor season. A lot of comments on how some performances are ranked in the top 10s or even just outside of the top 10.

Mr./Mrs. Kibitzer,

Curiosity has gotten the better of me. I would love to find out who you are and your connection to Heps. And if you have a problem with HepsTrack using your work to share with the community (with credit, of course)?

Brett

I sent you something at your gmail address, Brett. There's no problem with your disseminating any of my LRC posts.

And thanks for the wonderful job you all do at HepsTrack.com!

Event previews are being posted on Hepstrack, if anyone cares to read them.

Thanks, Mary. Your previews are a nice summary of whom to look for, and add a bit beyond the bare numbers.

Forecast still looking okay for Sunday; chance of rain (the 10,000m folks might not mind) and chance of a thunderstorm (they might) on Saturday. Forecast high on Saturday, upper 70s; Sunday, 70ish.

With three weeks' recovery between Heps and Regionals, I think there will be some interesting entries in those 10,000s. In particular, if Princeton wants to beat Cornell (and you know they do), I could see the Tiger men (and maybe women) putting a large contingent, with some unexpected people, in that race.

Last year Don Donn won the 10,000 on Day I before taking the steeplechase the next day. With no one within shouting distance of him this year in the steeple, it seems reasonable that he could do the same double; and if the 10,000 is run the same way as last year (a decent but not killing pace), he could just "hang around" for 24 laps, and then use his miler's speed, taking little out of him for the next day. Anybody who wanted to foil that scenario would have to be ready to really push the pace; but I'd bet that the top non-PU guys, who might also be slated for another race on Day II, would be reluctant to do so.

What I *really* wonder is: would they triple Cabral, bringing him back in the 5,000? It's several hours after the steeplechase (where he again ought to be able to just run along, then kick to the win); and if Princeton still needed points at that stage... Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what moves the schools make with their personnel, especially in those longer races.

DOES ANYONE KNOW WHEN THE HEAT SHEETS WILL COME OUT? ARE THEY OUT ALREADY?

Heat sheets don't come out until tomorrow evening so the coaches don't make any last minute changes. Everyone will see them at the same time, so look for someone to get them uploaded after din-din.

Oi, any good places to get a beer in Philly? Only ever been there on real quick trips and this will be my first time there with extra time.

anyone got a schedule of events?