can't be proven wrote: The way you've worded your original post, you can't possibly be proven right. How can it be proven that Rupp "has ZERO chance at running 8:10"? He either will run under 8:10 or he won't. But his odds of doing so are not revealed by his success or failure. His odds of running sub 8:10 could be greater than zero, but he could fail to run sub 8:10 anyway.
Rupp also has a minute chance (teeny-tiny) of running sub 8:00 and a microscopic chance (itsty-bitsy) of running sub 7:50.