sentiments is nuts wrote:
My sentiments - while I do think Ritz has a very good chance of making the Olympic team at either the 10k or 5k, the bronze medalist prediction is wildly off the mark.
The challenge with the Olympic track events (10k and 5k) is that at least 5 or 6 African runners and Farah can run a 54 sec (or better) last 400. And the do so off of running 2:35 per kilo pace (or faster). No American runner can do this, although admirably Rupp has come closer than others.
This is why Ritz wanted to make the marathon squad. It is where the money is - even if American marathoners are 3-4 minutes slower than their counterparts, the top few can still command appearance fees and money. Not so with track.
The sport no longer makes economic sense, even for the great ones.
I see what you are saying, but you are exaggerating. Running 2:35 pace (or faster) until the last lap, and then running a 54 sec (or better) last lap would yield a 12:47 if they go the slowest you mention.
I don't think any runner in history could run 54.0 or faster for a last lap off of 12:55 or faster pace and end up with a 12:47.0. My opinion is supported by nobody ever actually doing it.
How many active runners do you think could do this? Indeed, five runners in all of history have run 12:47.0 or faster with any kind of last lap, care to guess how many of them finished with a last lap of 53.X?