gamecock wrote:
So, you agree with the syllogism, but you believe that the second premise (under 2:05 puts you in the conversation) should be limited to folks below, what? 2:04? I think it's more likely that the first premise (2:00 is possible at all) is the false one. Unless you want to suggest that only the current WR holder or some other very small field has a chance (which I think makes the outcome even less likely), Hall seems to fit in. Think of having a BCS playoff. A 4-team playoff will almost certainly give you the "best" team in the field. 16 is probably unneccessary. But an 8-team field is the most likely to get everybody with a chance (even Boise). In this terrible analogy, Hall is Boise. Or perhaps Arkansas.
Not so sure about syllogisms and I don't follow BCS but I'd hazard to say that Hall is not close to top eight in the world. Indeed, if Hall were Kenyan and the Kenyans had to pick an 8 person marathon team, not only do I not think that Hall would make the team but I don't think that the Kenyans would even take a second glance at him. This is not a knock on Hall, just a realistic appraisal of where he stands on the world (Kenyan) stage.
You keep referring to Hall's 2:05 but please be serious - there is no question that this was a seriously wind-aided result. He was still 2 minutes behind the winner for his 2:05 (and then 2 and 1/2 minutes behind in Chicago) which is just where he is relative to the best. Hall going under 2:00 is LESS likely than SOMEONE going under 1:58 - which has exactly 0% chance of happening in the next ten years.