If Hall was smart, he would blast off at sub-2:09 pace and slowly drop everyone else. Then, high five the spectators the last quarter mile and paint a giant smile on his face.
If Hall was smart, he would blast off at sub-2:09 pace and slowly drop everyone else. Then, high five the spectators the last quarter mile and paint a giant smile on his face.
Um.
I'm rather surprised no one has mentioned this, but what were Hall's tactics in 2008? Surely that might give us some clue about how he would handle an American field.
Given the stakes, I imagine he'll sit until at least ten miles into it. In the races where he has pushed from the start, he at least had East African company (even if it was sitting on him). I would be really surprised to see Hall start at an aggressive pace that might leave him on his lonesome by mile eight. So, I'm in agreement with the folks that think he'll run well within himself for the first hour of the race.
That being said, he might still have his nose in the wind for most of the race. Another interesting question is whether anyone in the field will let Hall NOT lead. If I was a 2:12-13 guy with an outside shot (but then again, I'm not), I'd be very hesitant to run ahead of Hall, Meb, and Ritz. Thoughts?
Also, someone speculated earlier that there will be two packs: contenders and those looking for a fast time (2:14-16ish?). I think the 2004 trials played out like this, but does anyone disagree that next Saturday will have two big packs?
Sam in Berkeley wrote:
Um.
I'm rather surprised no one has mentioned this, but what were Hall's tactics in 2008? Surely that might give us some clue about how he would handle an American field.
...
It was in 2007, and the trials were his second marathon ever, and it was over a "hard" course.
Over 4 years later, Hall has run at least 8 more marathons. He knows that 65 at the half is not crazy, and in fact is still slower than his average first half for a marathon.
Houston is easier in theory, as long as the weather cooperates. I still say Hall in the first half sub 65, and the attacking will depend on how many are around still.
Hall will HAVE to run 2:08 pace from the start to make the team. Mo will still beat him at that pace which means Hall can only let one other person beat him and still make the team. If he runs any slower than that, his odds of not making the team are MUCH greater!
Hall ran a 2:08 in Chicago. He doesn't need to start at that pace to win the OT. He'll run the first half in 65, where he will have some company and then run a 63 or 64 to win in under 2:09.
With Rupp out, only Meb can hang with him late in the race. I don't think Ritz is ready to break 2:10.
It would be cool if Hall decided to make a statement and run out of sight. He could probably pull that off and shoot for a 2:07 but there's really no point to that and why take the risk?
agip wrote:
- he is a time trialist, not a racer,
statements like this are really idiotic
You have to run your own race especially in a marathon to run your best time possible. If you do that, then any sort of "racing fantasy" some people have isn't going to matter.
Most people LOSE races because they come up with these ridiculous tactics that only take energy away and allow them to be passed by the faster runner.
If conditions are decent and I was Ryan Hall, I would shoot for a 1:04 first half with the goal to finish in 2:07. If any other american can run faster than that, they will deserve to win.
Ryan should go through ten sitting on the 3rd place guy and hopefully feeling like he is jogging. He should steadily surge to take the legs out of anyone there into the 20th mile but make sure he has plenty left. From there it is balls out to the death. Hopefully he will have dumped everyone and run a great time. But he should take no risk of blowing up in a freak bad day by going too hard too early
nikeman wrote:
Now that Rupp is out there's no need for Hall to push the pace. I'm still picking Ritz for the win since he's faster than Hall over 5K and 10K.
I disagree. I think that Hall will win.
AsicsPerson wrote:
nikeman wrote:Now that Rupp is out there's no need for Hall to push the pace. I'm still picking Ritz for the win since he's faster than Hall over 5K and 10K.
I disagree. I think that Hall will win.
You're both wrong. I say Arciniaga will pull off a surprise win.
nikeman wrote:
Now that Rupp is out there's no need for Hall to push the pace. I'm still picking Ritz for the win since he's faster than Hall over 5K and 10K.
Doesn't matter. If he manages to not get dropped, he'll have nothing left in the last 5k. Ritz has never looked strong in the last 5k of a marathon.
nikeman wrote:
Now that Rupp is out there's no need for Hall to push the pace. I'm still picking Ritz for the win since he's faster than Hall over 5K and 10K.
Really good thinking there chap. Pick the guy who is faster at 5000 and 10000 over the guy who is faster at the marathon IN A MARATHON.
Good to see you are using your thinking cap today.
He's also talked about how he expects NOT to run like in 2007. After Chicago, he did an interview with Flotrack where he talked about running how he felt, or basically, a willingness to go fast, hard, and lead early (like he has in Boston) if he felt good. However, I will caveat that by pointing out Hall also said he expected the pace to be much faster from the gun, so him going out "quick" may not seem like such a bold move. In 2007, the course was perceived as "slow", Mike Wardian led for the first 10K+, and the half was covered in just over 1:06. Plus, Hall was under specific instructions from then coach Terrance Mahon to sit in until they gave him the signal to go. In the 5k between 25-30k, Hall put 30 seconds into Ritz and the field, another 35 seconds between 30-35k, and over a minute between 35k and the finish. So, going out in, say, 2:09 pace, isn't crazy considering a flatter, faster Houston course. Hall could do that and still surge (albeit maybe not as dramatically) in the later stages of the race if necessary. So long as he doesn't go mental and take it out in 2:05-2:06 pace (that's a long way to run on your own, even if you are the class of the field--just ask Mary Keitany) he should be able to win the race.
Two Words wrote:
nikeman wrote:Now that Rupp is out there's no need for Hall to push the pace. I'm still picking Ritz for the win since he's faster than Hall over 5K and 10K.
Really good thinking there chap. Pick the guy who is faster at 5000 and 10000 over the guy who is faster at the marathon IN A MARATHON.
Good to see you are using your thinking cap today.
He just wants Ritz to win because he's a Nike guy. I'm picking Hall to win it for sure. We thought about making it a bet, but couldn't agree on what to wager. I think if Hall wins, nikeman has to start an "Ode to Flagpole" thread.
txRUNNERgirl wrote:
Two Words wrote:Really good thinking there chap. Pick the guy who is faster at 5000 and 10000 over the guy who is faster at the marathon IN A MARATHON.
Good to see you are using your thinking cap today.
He just wants Ritz to win because he's a Nike guy. I'm picking Hall to win it for sure. We thought about making it a bet, but couldn't agree on what to wager. I think if Hall wins, nikeman has to start an "Ode to Flagpole" thread.
Two Word Ode to Flagpole:
Confirmed Liar