Kastor is running to win

I think it will be somewhat tactical and there will be NO chance at anything close to a 2:22, let alone 2:24. By tactical, first 10 miles to half run on 2:27 pace. That pace is hard enough that most of the competitors will be gone, maybe down to a pack of 6 maybe 8 runners. Then Flanagan will lay down the hammer and Desi will go with her as will Magda, Hastings, and Goucher (but not Kastor). I think Goucher will rapidly get dropped and hang in between the lead pack and the rest. Magda and Hastings will eventually be dropped leaving Flanagan and Desi going head to head.

Winner in 2:25-2:26, either Flanagan or Desi will win. Magda will be 3rd gutting it out over Hastings.

THAT'S WHY YOU RUN!!!

why is this news?!? i'm upset!!

Yawn!! So glad I'll be there.

If the race is hot, Kastor and Goucher will DNF...

Kastor can win it all. Many thought Paula Radcliffe's career was over and look what she did a couple months ago. I'm rooting for Kastor. My predictions for now:

1 Flanagan

2 Kastor

3 Goucher

4 Davila

5 Lewy-Boulet

6 Hastings

radcliffe wrote:

Kastor can win it all. Many thought Paula Radcliffe's career was over and look what she did a couple months ago.

Are you referring to her 2:23:46 @ Berlin in September? She set the course record at the hilly Monaco 10k this past Sunday in 32:05 after retuning from a Kenyan training camp.

Sciatica Road wrote:

Are you referring to (Radcliffe's) 2:23:46 @ Berlin in September?

Where 39 year old Irina Mikitenko went 2:22:18?

Kastor's interview certainly was interesting, and increases expectations.

Davila will run away with it if it turns into a footrace over the last two miles.

Flanagan has to run smart , if she gets bold she may end up just hanging on out of the money , its the marathon in which she is still learning.

Goucher , coaching changes , injuries , baby distraction , husband distraction , not 100 %.

Kastor , great career , tired , maybe could pick up the pieces if it gets crazy up front early and she stays cool.

Lewy , could sneak on if she stays cool , good racer , good experience...

Hastings can race , showed it in LA , can she do it again , maybe a spoiler.

Rothstein could break into the top six if she runs smart , maybe a spoiler.

yeah like when kastor won a bronze medal in high temps and humidity?

Sealion wrote:

If the race is hot, Kastor and Goucher will DNF...

too old? wrote:

in a runners world interview deena kastor says she is no longer running the trials just to make the team she is running to win. does she have it in her??

Sorry, I haven't read the whole thread but did read the article just today.

Mentally, I believe she has the will to win but come race day...hard to say, especially when you have younger/fresher competition in play. Not trying to discourage her but it will come down to "mental toughness/experience" versus "biological clock"...if you know what I mean.

With that said, I wish the best for Deena. Btw, her daughter is cute as a button!!

radcliffe wrote:

Kastor can win it all. Many thought Paula Radcliffe's career was over and look what she did a couple months ago. I'm rooting for Kastor. My predictions for now:

1 Flanagan

2 Kastor

3 Goucher

4 Davila

5 Lewy-Boulet

6 Hastings

i dont see any situation where desi wont be making the team

I'm just saying Deena won't make the olympic team? How is that illiterate?

Can't wait till January 14th 2012 when Deena fails to make the team. Deena will retire.

Kastor will make the team, if and only if the field gets spread out to a lead pack of 10 or less early. Its in Kastor's best interests to push early and rely on her experience to get her through. Remember the woman has an olympic medal and pretty good speed over 10k. If at 20 miles, the lead pack is down to 5 or lower, I see Kastor in the top 3. I don't think anything she can do is going to make her a match for Desi however.

too good wrote:

radcliffe wrote:

Kastor can win it all. Many thought Paula Radcliffe's career was over and look what she did a couple months ago. I'm rooting for Kastor. My predictions for now:

1 Flanagan

2 Kastor

3 Goucher

4 Davila

5 Lewy-Boulet

6 Hastings

I don't see any situation where desi wont be making the team

So, you do not see any way that three runners that have all medalled in major World Champs-level competition could not beat Davila? Did you start paying attention to this sport only in the last year or two? Yes, Desi has had some impressive races, including particularly her races at the WC Trials and her last marathon, but those accomplishments are not particularly better than what each of the other three bring to the table. Then, add in what some of the other significant challengers might do, and it is rather easy to get scenarios where Desi does not make it, especially in an event where things just simply can go wrong.

26mi235 wrote:

too good wrote:

I don't see any situation where desi wont be making the team

So, you do not see any way that three runners that have all medalled in major World Champs-level competition could not beat Davila? Did you start paying attention to this sport only in the last year or two? Yes, Desi has had some impressive races, including particularly her races at the WC Trials and her last marathon, but those accomplishments are not particularly better than what each of the other three bring to the table. Then, add in what some of the other significant challengers might do, and it is rather easy to get scenarios where Desi does not make it, especially in an event where things just simply can go wrong.

Winning a 10K bronze 5 years ago will not help Kara finish top three. It's all about recent training and racing. Desi is at the top of her game right now. Maybe Shalane is also and it's a hard call for Deena since she hasn't raced a lot recently.

WC Medal or not, I wouldn't bet a dollar on Kara beating Desi.

regrets, a hot race is not hot weather...and with all due respect, Athens was a long time ago.

She will retire after the race in TX; great career...

I feel sorry for Deena. This is an obvious attempt to stay in the spotlight while others have passed her by,