This article looked at the top 25 runners from each region and broke it down by the state in which they went to high school.
http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/track-and-xc/post/_/id/351/ncaa-d1-xc-breaking-down-the-numbers
Texas, California and New York had the most runners at the top of the regional meets, but these are also the most populous states, so it's not that informative.
I broke down the numbers by population so it makes more sense. I didn't have the data for each gender, just the total.
Out of the 450 all region runners 342 went to high school in the United States. Since the US population in 2010 was ~308 million there should be ~1.1 runners for each state for each 1 million persons in the population of that state.
It's pretty straight forward to figure out how many all region runners a state should have based on population.
These are the top states had more good runners than they should have.
State - # above population based average
Indiana - 8.8
Utah - 6.9
Michigan - 6.0
New Jersey - 5.2
Connecticut - 5.0
Colorado - 4.4
Pennsylvania - 2.9
Iowa - 2.6
New Hampshire - 2.5
Wyoming - 2.4
So Indiana should have only had ~7 all region runners but it had 16.
I wanted to make that list long enough to include Wyoming because they only had 2.4 more runners than average but this was from a very small population.
Here's the list of the best states by the percentage that they outperformed their expectation.
Wyoming - 483%
Utah - 326%
New Hampshire - 273%
Connecticut - 227%
Indiana - 222%
South Dakota - 222%
Colorado - 179%
Iowa 177%
I know you are all dying to see it so here are the worst states.
By # below average
California - -14.4
Florida - -13.9
North Carolina - -4.6
Louisiana - -4.0
Arkansas - -3.0
New York - -2.5
By Percent of the number of runners they should have had.
5 states had no all region runners
Arkansas, Hawaii, Montana, Delaware, Vermont and DC - 0%
Louisiana - 20%
Florida - 34%
Oklahoma - 48%
North Carolina - 57%
South Carolina - 59%
Good running states like California(65%), Oregon (71%), and Wisconsin(79%) underperformed.
Go ahead, debate.
Breakdown of best NCAA runners by state
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There were six Wisconsin runners just on the U. Wisconsin teams (6 of 14). I am guessing that Allie Woodward did not run/make the cut. Does anyone know how she has been doiong this year?
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Colorado has a couple of Wisconsin kids on their roster as does Oklahoma. I don't believe the Oklahoma guys ran at Regionals and may not for a few years. I believe Minnesota also has several Wisconsin kids competing.
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Indiana has turned into one of the top high school XC states in the nation the last few years for a state of it's size. Probably because we don't have too much else to do in this state.
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Woodward=redshirting at Oregon till she gains enough weight/body fat to be healthy.
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The standard deviation on number of athletes per state per year is 3.9.
So really only Indiana is significantly better than the rest of the US.
And only California and Florida are significantly worse. Both of those states always look good because they have a lot of people but in reality they underperform when you take population into account.
