How fast has New York M to be comparable to 2"03'38 ?

Race Time Bias - This section presents the average race time bias for all races in the Race Histories section that have sufficient data to calculate this statistic. A positive race time bias indicates the race is slower than average; a negative race time bias indicates the race is faster than average. Races held at altitude or under warm and humid conditions typically have positive race time biases.

Berlin is a legal legitimate course.

The only way to run faster than 2:03:38 on a legal legitimate course, is to run faster than 2:03:38 on a legal legitimate course.

i'm not too sure if those guys' calculations factor in that all those races except new york have pacers

that can be worth 75s for pacing to 30k

i'd extend new york's bias by upto 75s

similarly, sammy had no pacers ( can't remember if he drafted much in 1st 1/2 )

you coud knock upto 75s off his adjusted time

maybe he was a 2"02 guy that day ?!

The average biases won't tell you much about individual race biases, or the effect of pacers. It's a better indication of course difficulty.I can't comment on 75s or 2"02, but in my opinion they seem optimistic (I take that back -- I guess I can comment).

ventolin^3 wrote:

i'm not too sure if those guys' calculations factor in that all those races except new york have pacers

that can be worth 75s for pacing to 30k

i'd extend new york's bias by upto 75s

similarly, sammy had no pacers ( can't remember if he drafted much in 1st 1/2 )

you coud knock upto 75s off his adjusted time

maybe he was a 2"02 guy that day ?!

YOU HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTHOLE-RIDDEN STREEST WHICH TAKE A SEVERE TOAL ON ANY RUNNER...

Any idea how the various times match up v. the bias at 50th or 100th place?

nothing optimistic about it

3 or 4 guys in journals have quantified drafting

it's not relevant if you are taking average of numerous guys, mostly comprising non-elites in different races, but we are interested in elites & then pacing present or lacking is a huge factor

In New York, you have a lot of long hills. Granted that the altitude change is nothing like you see in any hilly place, but in comparison to those other pancake flat marathons, the course is a lot tougher. You have at least five 1M hills roughly on the Verrazano Narrows, Fort Greene, Queensborough Bridge, 5th Ave. and Central Park South to the finish. There are numerous other worthy hills (e.g. Williamsburg, 1st ave to around 90th), the worst of which is the steepest, the Pulaski Bridge to the halfway mark leaving Brooklyn. Conditions today were superb. 2:05:04 is worth at least 2:03 flat in my opinion, at Berlin, and the charts agree. Maybe this converts to 2:02 something with the Berlin phalanx of seven pacers.

Rbyrne wrote:

YOU HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTHOLE-RIDDEN STREEST WHICH TAKE A SEVERE TOAL ON ANY RUNNER...

Toll

jjjjjjjj wrote:

In New York, you have a lot of long hills. Granted that the altitude change is nothing like you see in any hilly place, but in comparison to those other pancake flat marathons, the course is a lot tougher. You have at least five 1M hills roughly on the Verrazano Narrows, Fort Greene, Queensborough Bridge, 5th Ave. and Central Park South to the finish. There are numerous other worthy hills (e.g. Williamsburg, 1st ave to around 90th), the worst of which is the steepest, the Pulaski Bridge to the halfway mark leaving Brooklyn. Conditions today were superb. 2:05:04 is worth at least 2:03 flat in my opinion, at Berlin, and the charts agree. Maybe this converts to 2:02 something with the Berlin phalanx of seven pacers.

this is right - everyone focuses on the bridges and on central park, but there are grades all over the course. To my mind, the worst is at around 21 miles, coming down 5 avenue just before turning into the park. It just goes on and on and on and at just the worst time.

ventolin^3 wrote:

i'm going to throw up

This is how many of us feel after reading your posts...

survey says wrote:

According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.

http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm

I see different results on a different page. They have NY as 52s slow and Berlin as 68s fast. Chicago, FWIW, has a 0.1s bias.

From this we conclude that NY is about two minutes slower than Berlin.

Mutai FTW!

survey says wrote:

According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.

http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm

DontFeedTheTroll wrote:

I see different results on a different page. They have NY as 52s slow and Berlin as 68s fast. Chicago, FWIW, has a 0.1s bias.

From this we conclude that NY is about two minutes slower than Berlin.

[quote]Race Time Bias - This section presents the average race time bias for all races in the Race Histories section that have sufficient data to calculate this statistic. A positive race time bias indicates the race is slower than average; a negative race time bias indicates the race is faster than average. Races held at altitude or under warm and humid conditions typically have positive race time biases.

The arrs bias refers to the performance histories of the courses, NOT how fast or slow a course is compared to the others.