LUKAS last 3k = 9:29.4, LUTZ last 3k = 8:42.7

Maybe not the best meet to open at. A little meet might of been a better ice breaker. Same meet in two weeks he runs around 24 flat I bet

The last kilo is short a bit, so that last 3k is really the last 2925 or so. Add about 12-15 seconds to the times.

This will tell you how slow that race was, how much it was affected by the strong and gusting wind. The effect was really noticeable in the second half of the race when things had thinned out and in the B races, with fewer runners.

Of course, this means that LV really slowed the second part of the race. But 8k is a lot longer than he has raced on before and running in a big crowd is different.

I think the people on here who think Lukas is going to make the top 10 at the nationals are crazy. Finishing in the top 20 would be a great race for him. There are a lot of great runners this year and dominating kids in high school races is very different than collegiate elites. I also have this sneaking suspicion he will quit at some point to do triathlons so his head may not be in it either. With all the money dropped on that Oregon team, they should be ashamed of their performances today. It was UGLY. I have to admit I had to smirk watching them get their clocks cleaned with Vin strutting around like a rooster:-)

info wrote:

I think the people on here who think Lukas is going to make the top 10 at the nationals are crazy. Finishing in the top 20 would be a great race for him.

You can say that after today's poor race, but based on what he did in HS it was not the least unreasonable to suggest he could get top 10 as a frosh this year.

As freshmen:

BK won it

Goucher got 2nd

Ritz 4th

Puskedra 5h

Derrick 7th

And LV was better overall in HS than all these guys (ok, if you include Ritz' 5k track time and jr world cross, than Ritz was probably a stronger candidate longer distance races).

Even if this year is stronger than some of those years, pegging LV as a 10 candidate is not a stretch in the least. I bet he still does it.

So which year is Lukas going to win NCAAs? Lalang is also a freshman. Lukas will catch and pass him this year, or is it now next year? I thought all his cross training was supposed to make him the best.

MGOBLUE wrote:

Maybe not the best meet to open at. A little meet might of been a better ice breaker. Same meet in two weeks he runs around 24 flat I bet

It of been? Do you mean it "might have been"?

next year? wrote:

So which year is Lukas going to win NCAAs? Lalang is also a freshman. Lukas will catch and pass him this year, or is it now next year? I thought all his cross training was supposed to make him the best.

Good point. Hey, I never said he would win it all, just that thinking he could get top 10 this year as a frosh wasn't silly at all, and I stand by that.

As far as this lalang guy, hey, if you are familiar with my postings at all you will know that I am the FIRST guy to state that I have always believe that best africans are more talented (moreso than being harder workers) hands down than any other runners in the world, and a guy like this just nails the point home in a brutal way.

[quote]coach d wrote:

Its the a$$hole obnoxious Oregon fans...

Select one

a) pot calling the kettle black

b) takes one to know one

c) it is very sad that someone who provides "expert"

commentary/advice has to stoop to the levels as

represented by the above comment

d) jealous much?

On second thought, select all.

Except they are the most obnoxious. Every year they come on here and are arrogant about how Oregon is the best and they jam it down your throats. Then when Oregon doesn't perform they make tons of excuses. They are also behind the hate of every non Oregon runner because they are jealous he ain't a duck. That's where all the GF hates comes from. Obnoxious Oregon fans

Conservative pacer wrote:

Lukas went out way too fast. He was in the top five runners through 3k and then slowly faded, and then really started to struggle. I think with a more conservative approach he would of ran well. You have to blame the Oregon coaches for this

No. Blame the Letsrun experts. The folks who are constantly saying you need to be aggressive at the beginning. You have to lay it all on the line, otherwise you are just time trialing. You can't afford to let folks get ahead of you during the first 1 or 2 k because it takes too much energy to pass people during the race...

Perhaps if these folks have any cranial capacity, the relative performances today of Lutz and LV will cause them to reconsider their brilliant racing advice.

very simple

he was coached by his parents in high school. Now he is on an actual team with other athletes. No wonder his first race was somewhat sub-par.

It will take time for him to adjust.

Stuck with match.com wrote:

Except they are the most obnoxious. Every year they come on here and are arrogant about how Oregon is the best and they jam it down your throats. Then when Oregon doesn't perform they make tons of excuses. They are also behind the hate of every non Oregon runner because they are jealous he ain't a duck. That's where all the GF hates comes from. Obnoxious Oregon fans

Words from the most credible of all Let's Run posters.

What was I thinking?

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

info wrote:

I think the people on here who think Lukas is going to make the top 10 at the nationals are crazy. Finishing in the top 20 would be a great race for him.

You can say that after today's poor race, but based on what he did in HS it was not the least unreasonable to suggest he could get top 10 as a frosh this year.

As freshmen:

BK won it

Goucher got 2nd

Ritz 4th

Puskedra 5h

Derrick 7th

And LV was better overall in HS than all these guys (ok, if you include Ritz' 5k track time and jr world cross, than Ritz was probably a stronger candidate longer distance races).

Even if this year is stronger than some of those years, pegging LV as a 10 candidate is not a stretch in the least. I bet he still does it.

Well, I think you left off a '0'; given his performance here he would be lucky to be top-100 at NCAAs, and it is not out of the question for him to not be running there, as they have to qualify and they have not really torn up the circuit so far. Not many points in either this race or Dellinger. If they do not do well at Pac-10s (remeber Colorado goings the proceedings and will not finish top-2 at the West Regional with Stanford, Portland, UCLA (who beat them here) and AZ State who missed beating them by a second.

Strong beginning to Lutz's career. This was a competitive race. Verzbicas may just have been victimized by too hard a start. The smart strategy in 8k xc is to start conservatively and then gradually pick people off in the second half of the race. That alone may bring him way up the next race. But it may also be that his summer triathlon training did not leave him well prepared for XC. So, maybe he'll come around by nationals or maybe he is lacking the base he needs and he won't run great this year at all. I wonder what Derrick would be doing at a race like this if he was 100 percent and in top shape. He ran 13:29 as a true freshman.

What about the freshman who won the race? Is he a legit frosh?

Stuck with match.com wrote:

Except they are the most obnoxious. Every year they come on here and are arrogant about how Oregon is the best and they jam it down your throats. Then when Oregon doesn't perform they make tons of excuses. They are also behind the hate of every non Oregon runner because they are jealous he ain't a duck. That's where all the GF hates comes from. Obnoxious Oregon fans

Indeed, I think Obama is going to start blaming everything on Oregon fans now. When Occupy Wall Street protest in 99% tshirts, the other 1% are Oregon fans. When Hillary Clinton talked about the "vast right wing conspiracy", she was talking about Oregon fans. Who holds back the electric car? Oregon fans... Oregon fans... Oregon fans.

Did anyone see the race? (Cheap mobile phone- hard to check all posts). Recent enough 3:59, 8:29 & others point to LV prob. being much more fit. Is it possible when falling from the leaders, he got discouraged and lost his desire? An 8:54 3K start shouldn't be SO fast for him to run the whole race in 4:57 pace. I mean- that's a weak tempo for him.

The Texas guys were pretty happy with the race and how things went for Lutz. The guys loved the course and the race and left pretty happy with things. One of dozens of happy little stories on the day, although one of the most notable.

As for LV, this race may have been good for him because super preps do not learn how to race in the same was as 'ordinary' top guys and this will likely put him in the mode of assessing where he is and how he will get where he wants. His background has been extraordinary and the final result is not indicative of where he will end up even this year (despite my comment above about top 100 vs top 10).

I still think he'll be top 5 or 10, and will pop a huge track race- maybe 13:16sh or 27:40sh.