Can ANYONE do a sub 30 minute 10k with proper training?

Hell no. I'm not even sure that everyone is capable of a sub 40 minute 10K.

DontFeedTheTroll wrote:

Hell no. I'm not even sure that everyone is capable of a sub 40 minute 10K.

That's exactly what I was going to say.

In spite of that, you won't know if you don't try.

Start by putting in the 100+ mile weeks first, then observe your improvement. It is impossible to predict unless you try and see for yourself. Some people respond to high mileage very well and improve tremendously from high school, while others kind of plateau somewhere at a certain point.

Lenny Korir did run a 33 min 10k his first year at Iona and then came back a year later to run 27:29 and win NCAA's. Wejo also improved from a 30 min 10k guy in college to a 28 min 10k guy post college.

No. Although people on here will tell you otherwise, sub-30:00 for 10k is still exceptional.

Not one person in a thousand, even with optimal training, could break 30:00 in a 10k.

For one thing, hardly any women can do it, so that's half the planet's population right there...

Why are you asking about sub 30 minutes for 10k? You have quite a ways to go to break 30 minutes for 8k.

At 17 you can't really know if you are talented yet. From what we have read, we can say that either you have been training horribly wrong (which could just be too hard) or that 5k is not your event.

You're asking too many arbitrary questions. The real answer, as said, is that you'll never know unless you try. If you can run 18:15 now, then odds are good you can at least go faster than 34 in the 10k a few years from now. If you go all-in, probably even faster. Will it get you to 30 minutes? Hard to tell. It will be quite difficult, but you won't know if you don't try.

Why are you so concerned with 30 minutes? Will you not be happy with your running if you don't meet that goal?

Don't be discouraged. People make huge improvements post high school. I know a guy who took a 2:03 800pr into his college sophomore season and finished that year with a 1:53/3:53 and closed a 1500m in 1:56. High mileage.

From what you have told us you don't SEEM to be a sub 30 guy, but there is also no compelling/obvious reason that you can't be.

From my experience (personal and coaching), a substantial part of the "butt off" work that you should (probably) be doing would be in the weight room.

No, not starting now, in the midst of your season, but as a standard part of your offseason: 2-3 sessions per week (on nonconsecutive days). Try to use the search function to find posts from runningart2004 (aka Alan) about this.

I don't know you, and could be 'way off here, but very often I've found that guys who put in a lot of work, but just aren't seeing the progress, need to make themselves better overall athletes before majorly upping their mileage--and strength training can help get you there.

Good luck. Keep us posted. [If you're planning to go to college, be aware that a lot of schools have running clubs where you'd be welcome, and a surprising number have *varsity teams* that would accept someone with your times--and attitude.]

Not quite sure what's driving this goal. Fit in, impress the ladies, because 30 is a nice round number......? I agree with just about everything that people have already said, but want to (over) emphasize the idea that right now no one has any idea what your abilities are, or when you'll discover them. You could graduate from college running a 30:01 10K, and a few years later knock out a 2:20 marathon. So do yourself and the distance running community a huge favor by running just to run, have a good time, and improve yourself everyday. And avoid over-training in pursuit of counter-productive or arbitrary goals.

Hate to be the nahsayer but 18:15 indicates that you will have a hard time breaking 3 minutes for the 1k. How on earth are you thinking about holding that pace up 10x that distance?

I ran with a bunch of 9:30-type two milers in college and not one of them broke 30 (some got close and would probably break it if they kept training). Unless you're really undertrained or haven't grown, I can't see you breaking 30. If you do it's so far away that it doesn't even make sense as a goal - can you run a mile in 4:48?

No. Sub-30 takes a fair amount of talent, and if you have truly put in "a lot of very hard work" to get to 18:15 as a senior, that's very nice, but it basically means you can't run that sort of time.

Now, perhaps your idea of a lot of very hard work means 25 mile a week, in which case running decent miles, with a nice mix of speed and recovery, might lead to bigger drops. I know of a guy who went from 17 minutes in HS to 30:07 in college; but even with his terrible hs coaching he was well under 18:15.

I never broke 30 mins, though I feel I might have had the ability.

Last autumn of HS: 19:05 5k road (after 3 years of 30-40mpw)

Spring 1st yr colleage: 16:40, same time dead both road and track (60-70mpw).

Summer 3rd year: 15:34 5k tactical, 8:53 3k. Still miles off a sub 30 10k. My last track season (80-95mpw).

Fast forward 3 years or so where I ran a LOT of cross but due to injuries and heavy academic schedule in spring/summer no track -> was in far, far better shape (100-115mpw).

Career races, finished high up two high calibre xc races 2 weeks apart - in one I was between a 2:17 marathoner and a guy who had been a junior international and brought his 10k down to sub 29 either the following year or the year after. 6 positions behind me, a team mate who had never beaten me in a race (out of ~15 we ran together) - now a 30:22/2:22 guy, still improving. 11 positions back, another team mate, now 30:15/65:26.

Next week, "career"/hobby-ending ankle injury. So it goes.

Never broke 10k, and it's MUCH easier to talk about it than do it, but at the time I was strongly anticipating doing it within a year based on my winter training sessions. One more data point, discard if you will given I never actually did it.

Why 30 mins?

You should aim to be the best you can and not set silly targets

Mediocre HS runner, well.... anything is possible! BUT, talent is a HUGE factor to break 30min for 10000m. It is extremely difficult, and you have to be an animal.. That being said, 18:15 does not show an extreme lack of talent [even if you are putting in miles]. You are still < = 18.

I believe you can. Don't be afraid to take risks with your training.

Sorry to say, but not going to happen.

At your current performance level your oxygen uptake is probably around 54-56 ml/min/kg. So if you ran that off no training, that may be your base VO2. With optimal training over a period of 4-5 years, you may improve that by 20-25% (if all goes well and your genetics are responsive). If so, you might improve to 67-70 ml/min/kg, which is fantastic.

However, it would probably take a VO2 of 73 ml/min/kg to break 30 mins for 10K. If you could race at 90% of VO2 max then you would need a VO2 max substantially higher, which isn't going to happen without using PEDs (EPO?).

This fact shouldn't deter you from training and improving as much as you can. The journey is more important that the destination.

Let me give you my example, which might be more reasonable. I'm 25 years old. I started running when I started high school 11 years ago in 2000. At the time, I was the worst runner on the team, not counting kids who ran for a week and quit the team. By the end of high school, I was one the better runners on the team.

My times, apologies for the odd cross country distances in Ontario:

2000 - 27:54 5k

2001 - 31:18 6k

2002 - 28:20 6k

2003 - 30:xx 7k

2004 - 18:45 5k, 40:30 5k

2005 - 18:29 5k, 38:52 10k

2006 - 18:56 5k, 38:40 10k

2007 - 17:44 5k, 36:38 10k

2008 - 1:21 half marathon

Since then, I've been busy working and haven't quite gotten in the training (about 80-100k a week) to run faster than those times. If I'd continued the progression, I might be running 33-34 minutes by now.

My ultimate goal remains a sub-2:30 marathon (my high school coach ran 2:30, but never under). I'm not sure if I'll get there, but there's nothing to be ashamed of if you run even under 35 minutes for 10k or 2:50 for a marathon.

Hey guys,

I should point out a few things...

the 18:15 was on a cross country course, and I do terribly in cross country because I feel a lot of pressure running with a target on my back, so I don't think I've ever had a truly optimal race. I am sure I could do 17:30 if you put me on a track, even with the pressure remaining a factor- this course had some substantial hills.

I appreciate the responses. Of course I'll still be happy with my performance if I never break 30, it's just such a monumental thing to strive for that I love the idea. I mean I want to be as good as I can be, so that seems like a suitable goal.