2011 Brussel DL Predictions- 1) Will Rupp Get The AR in 10,000? 2) Will Uceny Win DL Jackpot? 3) Will Bolt Get WL?

I don't think Galen will get the record, he is past his peak for the year.

rojo wrote:

3) Yes. Well it's gonna be cold. Maybe not.

So which is it? Make a stand for what you think, Rojo. Don't just cover all the bases so you can say in your post-meet recap "I was right".

My thoughts:

1) No. I don't see the race being won much faster than 26:50 (if even) and I dont think he'll be that close to the front even if it is.

2) Yes. Uceny didn't look too great in her 800 at Zurich (got a bit caught up in the fall, but not much), but the question is will she win the jackpot. So, if thats her focus, then beating Jamal is her biggest concern. Simple enough stragtegy to execute and I think shes got enough in the tank to do it.

3) Yes. Cold sucks to sprint in, but Bolt's an animal. 9.75

1) no way

2) unlikely

3) Likely

I am usually spot on when it comes to predictions.

An expert wrote:

1) no way

2) unlikely

3) Likely

I am usually spot on when it comes to predictions.

Agreed.

1) no way. 5% chance

2) highly unlikely. 15% chance.

3) 65-70% chance. definitely possible.

another regular/average meet that is too hyped with "10000m AR" garbage beforehand. Since Solinsky ran a 26:59, EVERY 10K solinsky or Rupp has entered has had the tagline of "will rupp/solinsky break the 10K AR?"

not the first 897 times, and not this time now either.

is there a live stream?

Captain Tenneal wrote:

An expert wrote:

1) no way

2) unlikely

3) Likely

I am usually spot on when it comes to predictions.

Agreed.

1) no way. 5% chance

2) highly unlikely. 15% chance.

3) 65-70% chance. definitely possible.

another regular/average meet that is too hyped with "10000m AR" garbage beforehand. Since Solinsky ran a 26:59, EVERY 10K solinsky or Rupp has entered has had the tagline of "will rupp/solinsky break the 10K AR?"

not the first 897 times, and not this time now either.

1 and 2 are too low, 3 is too high.

1. yes

2. no

3. no

Bolt could go sub-9.78, JUST, and ONLY IF he has a great tailwind.

He won't get it. It's cold, it's the end of the season, it's probably gray in Brussels by now, he's fatigued, and it's not a championship.

He'll be lucky to repeat his 9.85--although his form looked better to me at WC's than it did in that 9.85

I'm guessing a 9.88 corrected.

[quote]rojo wrote:

Make your predictions now.

1) Will Galen Rupp break 26:59 and get the AR in the men's 10,000?

Yes 26:56:48 he is fit and ready - next year is "qualify and make the team year" so this is it the time for a record run, if the pace slows Galen goes to the front. He wont win but he is top 5 for sure.

I thought his showing at Worlds was impressive, ran well, he was in the mix got out kicked but he ran three races.

1) Yes (but only with the Mask of Zoro)

2) No, either Jamal or Mishchenko or Gezahegn

3) No, looked no good in Zagreb

1. No

2. Yes

3. Yes

#2 is the most likely of the three and it is unlikely. Cold is terrible for sprint times. #1 is crazy talk. 26:59? Seriously?

If the weather is cool:

1) Yes, Rupp gets the record.

2) Yes, Uceny gets the jackpot.

3) No, Bolt does not get the world lead.

If the weather is warm:

1) No, Rupp doesn't get the record.

2) Yep, Uceny still gets the jackpot.

3) Yes, Bolt runs a world lead.

Yes to all 3, and I expect a black page for Rupp at 2pm EST (or whenever the 10000 ends).

Outside chance of a Japanese national record, although Watanabe was really off at Worlds.

Weather is perfect here in Brussels. Not too cold, not too warm, about 17-18° C at 5pm. No wind at all. This is the best day of the year in Belgium for a race, as all summer long the weather was terrible. Rupp 10k is at 7.25pm. If he doesn't break the AR, that will mean he pasts his fitness peak. But he is in Brussels to do it for sure.

brussels man wrote:

Rupp 10k is at 7.25pm. If he doesn't break the AR, that will mean he pasts his fitness peak.

Or it could mean he has never had the fitness to break 27. Not to get down on Rupp he's clearly talented and one of the best distance runners in the US, but he has never shown the fitness/ability to break 13/27. Next couple years assuming he continues to train well I think he's got a chance, but he's a 13:08/27:10 guy now and he has run enough 5/10k's where I don't see him running huge 10 sec pr's. Maybe next year... or 2013, but I don't think he has it in him.

I just don't see Galen throwing it down beast mode. He's fast and fit but I don't think he has the heart to rip that last 800.

Anyone know what time the 10000 will be Eastern Time? I may have to stay late at work today, but I'm hoping I can duck out at regular time and catch a stream when I get home.