Galen Rupp will leave Daegu with a medal.

I feel good about this kid. Like a positive energy and he will do well.

I'd like to see what's in his heart.

ryan foreman wrote:

Could happen. But consider what that means. You are saying he will beat at least one of these 3 guys:

Mo Farah

K Bekele

Z Tadese

Not to mention every other single runner from East Africa.

There is no way you can have expectations of Rupp medaling. But he is at the stage where he is a dangerous runner for anyone. He could be like Dellinger in the 64 Olympics or Ian Stewart in the 72' Olympic 5K. A would be medalist could slip up and run out of gas and Rupp suddenly swoops in to steal a medal.

+1

Why is everyone so stoked on Kenisa Bekele right now? Seriously, the dude has not raced in 2 years, and I don't care how good he is, he will be stale when the kcik starts. Galen is ready for sub 26:50, but it will be a sit and kick, and he is proving he can go 53 for the last lap. IF he doesn't fall down, medaling is a realistic proposition....My prediction--MO. East African. Rupp.

Fred McGriff wrote:

Most likely in the 10k, and most likely a bronze behind Farah and Bekele

I actually think Rupp has a shot at a medal as well, it's kind iof complicated to explain why, but I pretty good at predicting Olympic and WC medalist. And, I don't Bekele will be a factor that is if he even makes it to the starting line.

I sort of agree. Above all nobody really knows where Bekele is at. Its hard to believe he could return to 09' form. If he was there he would have been healthy earlier in the season and run some tune up races. Yet its Bekele. From the level he is coming from he can be short of his best and still win gold. But yeah, I wouldn't be that surprised either if Rupp beats him out. But to predict that seems a little insane. Also, I highly doubt Rupp has the ability to kick well on sub 26:50 pace. But I think he can at least stick around close to the leaders until the end at that pace. I'm expecting Tadese to make a long sustained charge. Even if you are a Rupp doubter, we are talking about Tadese being a pace setter all the way through to the finish line. 26:50 is not that far fetched in that context. And I doubt if anyone else has that strong of kick off that fast of pace except Farah and (perhaps) Bekele. So who knows. I guess the way I see it is that Rupp has a chance. But he's at the mercy of at least 3 runners who are still clearly superior to him if they are anywhere close to their best. Its their race to lose. But they might do just that. Falter in some way and Rupp is their to get the medal.

iron poor boy wrote:

Why is everyone so stoked on Kenisa Bekele right now? Seriously, the dude has not raced in 2 years, and I don't care how good he is, he will be stale when the kcik starts. Galen is ready for sub 26:50, but it will be a sit and kick, and he is proving he can go 53 for the last lap. IF he doesn't fall down, medaling is a realistic proposition....My prediction--MO. East African. Rupp.

Rupp = Farah.

They train together. It's not implausible to think they will both medal and run about the same time as they did earlier this year.

Rupp has the SLOWEST TIME THIS YEAR IN THE ENTIRE FIELD in the 10000.

There are no less than 13 people in the 5000 with qualifying times faster than Rupp. Yes he beat Merga once (14 days after Merga ran 12:54), but there are 12 more people faster than Rupp. If he has never beaten Farah and has never beaten Lagat, his odds aren't very good.

If you're trying to troll, at least make it remotely believable.

I think 'Griff is onto something. Many a letsrunners will be giving praise to the Ruppster.

Anyone got any reports of Lagat's training this last weeks? Not hard to see him right in it with 100 to go....

i feel Rupp has a good chance if he's having a good day.

Huh? The OP just said he thought Rupp would win bronze, not gold. Lagat has never run a 10K. Farah is favored to win the gold, and Rupp hasn't finished too far behind him in both the New York half and the Birmingham 5K. Not that I don't agree that we shouldn't have any expectations for Rupp medaling. Just not for the reasons you are citing. Above all we just don't know. Rupp hasn't run a 10K this year except USATF.

coach d wrote:

Rupp has the SLOWEST TIME THIS YEAR IN THE ENTIRE FIELD in the 10000.

There are no less than 13 people in the 5000 with qualifying times faster than Rupp. Yes he beat Merga once (14 days after Merga ran 12:54), but there are 12 more people faster than Rupp. If he has never beaten Farah and has never beaten Lagat, his odds aren't very good.

If you're trying to troll, at least make it remotely believable.

coach d wrote:

Rupp has the SLOWEST TIME THIS YEAR IN THE ENTIRE FIELD in the 10000.

There are no less than 13 people in the 5000 with qualifying times faster than Rupp. Yes he beat Merga once (14 days after Merga ran 12:54), but there are 12 more people faster than Rupp. If he has never beaten Farah and has never beaten Lagat, his odds aren't very good.

If you're trying to troll, at least make it remotely believable.

Okay, you lost me on the part where the qualifying times mean anything at all. Kenenisa doesn't even have a qualifying time and he's one of the favorites to win the whole thing based on his credentials. Rupp ran 27:10 last year and has definitely improved since. It's not implausible to believe Rupp can run 26:50s or so, which allows him an outside shot at a medal in the 10k if he kicks well and runs a great tactical race.

Prediction

1. Bekele

2. Tanui

3. Merga

Farah, has been running great this year, but I think he peaked a bit early. He might not medal.

Ghost

I agree about Farah peaking too soon, prediction.

1 – Sihin

2 – Bekele

3 - Merga

That would be a serious fail by Salazar if that is the case. Likely if Farah loses its because some other runner has improved that much more leading up to Daegu.

Athlete X wrote:

I agree about Farah peaking too soon, prediction.

1 – Sihin

2 – Bekele

3 - Merga

At least you know Rupp will be there and be competitive. He is consistent.

ryan foreman wrote:

Could happen. But consider what that means. You are saying he will beat at least one of these 3 guys:

Mo Farah

K Bekele

Z Tadese

Not to mention every other single runner from East Africa.

There is no way you can have expectations of Rupp medaling. But he is at the stage where he is a dangerous runner for anyone. He could be like Dellinger in the 64 Olympics or Ian Stewart in the 72' Olympic 5K. A would be medalist could slip up and run out of gas and Rupp suddenly swoops in to steal a medal.

Clearly I've given Dellinger some knocks in that past that he deserves historically...but you don't know crap about how he managed bronze in 64.

Dellinger was far more experienced - and confident - in 64 than Rupp could be expected to be now.

Dellinger believed in every step of that race, until the last 150...or less...that he was going to win it.

Rupp is a game and hungry runner, who enjoys racing and if the window is there and he has it on that day...he'll put it ALL on the line...

And if it is meant to be...he'll medal.

Rupp never chokes, and he never gives less than his best on the day.

He might not be great at running in traffic yet, but the dude does not drop out or bonk.

Which is what the idiots on this board never give him credit for.

Rupp loves to runn and race...he's fearless. It isn't his doing that he wasn't born in East Africa...and he still had time to surprise and thrill yet.

I can't see Rupp beating 6 kenyans and ethiopians, let alone Farah, Tadese and KB.

I predict him to finish around 5th-7th position if he runs smart and pass the fading east africans in the final laps.

+2. I think getting in 4th or 5th would be an amazing accomplishment, and frankly so would 10th. Galen is up there but he's facing some phenomenally talented people. Manage expectations.

ryan foreman wrote:

You are saying he will beat at least one of these 3 guys:

Mo Farah

K Bekele

Z Tadese