OK maybe not the single most believable of all, but up there with the most believable, Dix and Bolt, IMHO.
I know, that's whacked.
Here are the sub-10 guys this year, in order of uncorrected times:
Of this list, Gay is out.
Clermont times are suspect, so Bledman and, IMHO Ashmeade, are out.
Eugene times are suspect, so Patton is out.
Mullings is out, for obvious reasons.
Gatlin and Blake are not as believable as Lemaitre, for obvious reasons, so they are out.
Those remaining are:
Lemaitre has 4 sub-10 clockings this year, all very close to each other in time, and all requiring some wind (9.92 +2.0, 9.95 +1.0, 9.95 +1.0, and 9.96 +0.9) His best corrected time this year is in fact only 10.00, and those 4 times corrected are an incredibly consistent 10.01, 10.00, 10.00, and 10.00). He ran at Albi, Stockholm, Lausanne, and Montreuil, all VERY close to his home training base. The realistic times, the consistency, and the meet venues and timing make his performances believable.
Ndure, Padgett, Bailey, and Salaam each have only 1 sub-10 this year and are all just a bit under 10.00 (9.99, 9.99, 9.97, and 9.97 respectively), and required positive wind of 1.0, 2.0, 0.5, and 1.3 respectively, so they are believable with no further details considered, but because they might be less consistent than Lemaitre, they MIGHT be less believable.
In with this group we can put Rodgers, who only has 1 legitimate sub-10 corrected time this year (10.04 -1.6, or 9.94 corrected).
Slightly less believable than these 5 is Makusha, with only 1 sub-10 clocking this year, but well under 10.00 at 9.89--but in his favor he did require a positive wind of 1.3 to do it--however this is coming close to what I believe to be the limits of performance, so it not unbelievable, only less believable than the first 5.
Powell is a toss-up because of his 9.78 (+1.0) (which is too fast unless he is the fastest of all time, of which the chances are slim), and because of his consistency--he has ONLY sub-10's listed on the IAAF chart. To me, that is suspect--this guy runs under 10 no matter how well he slept, no matter what he ate, no matter what the stage of his training, no matter what niggling injuries he has, no matter what. That's not as believable as Lemaitre because that record is just TOO good, unless like I said, he is the GOAT by far, which is just statistically unlikely.
Remaining are Frater, Bolt, Carter, Dix, and Blake.
Bolt is just as believable as Lemaitre, IMHO. He has been pushing hard, and his times look legit.
Dix is also just as believable as Lemaitre, IMHO. He has also been pushing hard, and his times also look legit.
Remaining are Frater, Carter, and Blake.
Frater is having the season of his life and is quietly compiling one of the best seasons of anybody, ever--and the same thing can be said of Carter. I honestly don't know what to think of these 2. Carter has been in my target due to his hypertrophy, his attitude, and his Johnson-esque style. But these 2 are wildcards.
So we have IMHO Lemaitre, Dix, and Bolt who are all equally believable this year at sub-10, with the one-hit-wonders Ndure, Padgett, Bailey, Salaam, Makusha, and Rodgers close behind.