If You Were Coaching Andrew Wheating, What Would You Have Advised Him To Do in Men's 1500?

coach d wrote:

algorewasright wrote:

I would have advised Wheating to glue himself to the right shoulder of Bernard Lagat, and follow BL's every move. In addition to being fast, BL also is a pretty savvy racer.

That is my feeling as well. And if Teg had done this in 2007, he would likely have a bronze in the 5000 instead of missing it by one step.

Actually, I think the problem was if Teg had passed the guy, he wouldn't have been able to nail him from behind, which was what he was trying to do.

Watch this race where Wheating ran 3:30.90

He is hanging in the back the whole way and has a line of runners to go after to keep his pace going while picking them off. He is behind Lagat and Lomong on the final backstretch.

You think if he goes to the front at a fast pace without rabbits he will be able to hold them off?

He certainly didn't have to run a fast pace to be at the front. But I don't care if he runs back, front, or middle. Just stay on the inside on the turns when the pace picks up. He shouldn't spot world class runners the equivalent of the stagger when it comes to a sprint.

I think wheating should have just sat in last place for the first 600-700 meters. Save energy on the rail get your legs ready and on that final straight before 800 left get into second or third on the outside and that's when it picks up anyway. It's all about being up front when everyone "takes off." If you are in the back when people go then there is a delay and before you know it you are 10+ meters back.

toro wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIdgkRf-0fg

Watch this race where Wheating ran 3:30.90

He is hanging in the back the whole way and has a line of runners to go after to keep his pace going while picking them off. He is behind Lagat and Lomong on the final backstretch.

You think if he goes to the front at a fast pace without rabbits he will be able to hold them off?

You are comparing a 3:30 race to a 3:46 race? You are saying the same tactics apply? I can't even start to enumerate all the problems with that.

No. I was comparing a 3:30 rabbitted race to attempting a similar pace without a rabbit.

The same tactics do not apply so you can't just say go out fast and out run everyone.

Why is it that so many young American male middle distance runners refuse to run from the front? Is it some sort of messed up arrogance i.e. it worked at college therefore its bound to work against the best in the world? Do some work buddy!

wejo wrote:

But making yourself the sacrificial lamb doesn't work well either.

hahahaha, i love this sentence. i'm going to use this in the future.

Stay on the inside lanes..he ran most of the race in lane 2 and 3, and not even on the inside of lane 2..when you have these races you must stick up at the front of the pack and wait for the first guy to go..If he didn't have any speed then he should have used strength to push the pace between 900 & 1k to thin out the pack and set up again into the inside lanes and sit and kick..and I do hate the fact that American runners are scared to take the lead when the pace is slow..sometimes you must set the pace and then fall back so that you have a better opportunity the last 200m against 3-5 guys max than 12 guys sprinting for 3 spots..just grow some balls and take it

Although Alan Webb hasn't exactly burnished himself a reputation as the master tactician between then and now, he did exactly the right thing for himself at the 2004 Olympic Trials when he threw it down with 800 to go and ran away from everybody. Assuming Wheating is in good enough shape to run a 3:35-3:36 right now (we have not seen evidence of this, but I suspect he is), I would have suggested he do the same exact thing. Sure, in all likelihood he would not have dropped Lagat and blazed on to victory, but I think it would have been his best bet to make the team without leaving it up to the generosity of Lagat. Had he done that, I suspect the finish order would have been Lagat, Wheating, Centro, Manzano; or possibly Lagat, Wheating, Manzano, Centro.

After watching the race again I think Wheating ran tactically better than I thought when I saw the live race. He was right where he should have been with 200m left and 100m left and he just couldn't further accelerate. He had plenty of time to wind up and go but it apparently just wasn't there when he stepped on the gas.

Maybe he's just not in the same condition he was last year or even earlier this year.

wejo wrote:

I'm working on USATFs in Review and in discussing the men's 1500 I've mentioned that sit and kick races don't favor the favorite.

But making yourself the sacrificial lamb doesn't work well either. So the question is if you were coaching Andrew Wheating, what would you have advised him to do?

Don't take advised, from slow ass white boys.

Mojo Jerkin wrote:

Far be it to ever suggest anyone take race tactic lessons from Alan Webb, but in 2007 (I think) Webb ran this race tactically like Wheating should have in 2011.

My recollection is Webb entered the race with he and Legat pretty clearly the class of the field. Webb made sure the pace went out fast enough that only he and Legat would be around at the end. I think Manzano slipped into the mix late.

So ... yes to win the race maybe pressing the pace early wouldn't have been such a good idea. But, it probably would have been the best tactic to assure making the team.

Give Webb credit where credit is due. You don't win

1. Multiple US Champs

2. Multiple Euro Diamond League races

and

3. make WC finals

without knowing how to race. Even the "experts" will agree that Webb ran a tactically great race in the '07 Worlds. He just didn't have enough at the end. And his '07 US champs was a race of beauty, as well as, his NY Grand Prix win, his win over Mehdi Bala, his win in the 800m running 1:43.

I didn't see anyone in this thread saying Wheating should run 3:30 pace. His 3:30 PR only goes to show that he can run a sustained pace that nobody in that field could match. Manzano of Lomong have run in fast diamond league races and their PRs are a good two seconds lower than Wheating's PR. Wheating crushed Lagat in that very race he ran 3:30. Wheating couldn't run away from those guys. But he could have gone a long way towards running the kick out of the entire field. Thats what matters. There are numbers in between 30 and 48.

toro wrote:

No. I was comparing a 3:30 rabbitted race to attempting a similar pace without a rabbit.

The same tactics do not apply so you can't just say go out fast and out run everyone.

toro wrote:

I think Wheating positioned himself very well for the last lap and the stretch run.

He just didn't or couldn't execute.

Possible reasons:

-Running wide earlier in the race. He worked harder and ran further to keep up and had less in the tank at the end.

-Pressure. He may have put too much pressure on himself and couldn't relax and let the running come out.

-Fitness. Maybe he just wasn't in top form or fitness and got beat by better runners.

I don't blame the slow pace.

A 1:44 800 runner should have a field day with that pace.

Especially someone who is known for coming on hard at the end...

Some very good points here that deserve more attention. Part of the problem is that people are making a hindsight judgment of tactics based on results, falling into the logical fallacy of assuming that the tactics dictated the results.

Personally, I look at it the other way around. If you asked me BEFORE the race what scenario I thought would give Wheating the best chance of winning, against a strong field that included strength-oriented runners like Lagat, I'd think:

(a) Wheating has by far the fastest 800 PR in the field;

(b) Wheating has by far the least 1500 experience in the field;

(c) Wheating missed three months of training over the winter and thus his base is suspect.

The conclusion, to me, is that he would WANT a slow, pedestrian race determined with a furious kick. That's his best chance of beating more endurance-oriented runners like Lagat.

Of course, a slow race does leave more people in the hunt. But this wasn't a race like four years ago, with only two guys (Lagat and Webb) head and shoulders about the field. In this case, he had to worry about Lagat, two 3:32 guys (Manzano and Lomong -- and their 3:32 credentials from another season are just as relevant as Wheating's 3:30), at least two guys who are legit A standard runners who are hot this year (Torrence and Brown, though of course Brown didn't qualify). Under those circumstances, a fast race with Wheating doing all the leading leaves him vulnerable to getting burned, a la Wurth-Thomas, by three guys down the final straight.

Bottom line: as others have said, my advice would have been to get out in good position but not the lead, relax and don't worry about anything for the first ~600m, then get in position so that if no one has moved by 800m you start winding it up. But that's easier said than done, because EVERYBODY wants to be cruising off the shoulder of the leader. And fighting for that position (like some posters have suggested - "if someone passes you, repass them") takes a huge amount of mental and physical energy. There's no simple answer. And while it's true that some runners over the years really have been master tacticians, in the end it's really fitness that matters more. And I believe that's where Wheating came up short this year: he's not in 3:30, or even 3:33 shape just get. But give him a few more weeks...

One last point: if you're curious about how first-lap leaders have fared in World Championship 1500 heats and finals, here's an analysis of the data from 1997 to 2009:

Bomber Harris wrote:

Why is it that so many young American male middle distance runners refuse to run from the front?

Name some foreigners who ran from the front.

EL G didn't. Morceli didn't. Lagat never did.

Kiprop. No

Ramzi. No

Ngeny. No

Webb. Well yes. But he was a young American.

ryan foreman wrote:

I didn't see anyone in this thread saying Wheating should run 3:30 pace. His 3:30 PR only goes to show that he can run a sustained pace that nobody in that field could match. Manzano of Lomong have run in fast diamond league races and their PRs are a good two seconds lower than Wheating's PR. Wheating crushed Lagat in that very race he ran 3:30.

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People have implied that he should have run faster than the others can go, which would be similar to his 3:30 run.

PR's that are a good two seconds lower?

Lomong is 1.3 s slower and Manzano is 1.4 s slower and they each have a number of sub 3:35's. Wheating, just that one race.

Lagat was "crushed" by 1.6 s in that race.

Wheating, from the front, likely wouldn't run the kick out them without hurting his own kick and I still think Centro may have gotten him as well.

I am still looking at a 4th place finish, or lower if he is not in 3:30 shape.

Look at the evidence supplied regarding those who have lead championship races.

I don't think being nit-picky on Wheating's tactics is necessary. People forget he is relatively inexperienced racer. He was simply more talented than everyone in college so tactics didn't matter as much, plus he was focusing on the 800.

He just needs to run more races in Europe as well as championship style races. If all he does this summer is race TTs (excluding the WCs), then I believe it will be a huge detriment to his career. The guy needs to get into 3:35-3:36 races where the pace changes dramatically and many moves are made.

I can't wait until Webb rebuilds his wheels under Vig and reinvents himself as a speedster 800/1500 guy (as opposed to the 1500/5k/one time 10k guy). He's going to be back next year and winning at usatfs, closing in 1:51 for the final 800 and the 3:35 win!