The chances of Solinksy winning are, let's be honest, slim and none. However to say he doesn't have enough speed to close a 10k is absurd.
1. He closed his final collegiate 5k, though slow overall, in a 4:00 final 1600m.
2. He closed his AR last 800m in 1:56.
3. He set a 1500m PR of 3:35.89 in April - and is currently #2 overall on the USA top 1500m marks list.
Also when you break down past Olympic races -
1. Bekele closed his last 1k of his 2008 5k gold in roughly 2:25.3, right around 1:57 pace. Solinsky closed his 10k AR faster than that. So 10ks can be closed faster than a 5k, and Solinsky does have the speed to hang. In fact, the race went out slower, and finished in 12:57 - a race that plays into Solinsky's hands.
2. 3:35 was 7th in the 1500m in 2008; winner was 3:33. Meaning that in championship-style racing, Solinsky's 1500m PR is not far off the mark of the guys who are atop the stage in the 5k and 10k - not overall - but in a championship style race. That 1500m went out in 1:56, so it wasn't a total sit-and-kick.
3. Bekele's last 1k of the 10,000m gold in 2008 was run in 2:27 - about 1:58 pace. This race was won in 27:01, and had splits of 13:48/13:08. While Solinsky's was more even in 13:35/13:24 - he still negative split the race and closed faster than Bekele's last 800m pace of 1:58 - showing he does have the 10k strength/speed combo necessary.
Obviously running a second 5k of 13:08 would be difficult, however based on his style of racing and making the right moves in the right situation, I'd have to think Solinsky wouldn't let the 10k in the Olympics (should he run that event) go out at such a slow pace - especially if he can be a 26:45-26:50 guy by then. A big IF, but a possible if.
While the odds are against him, he does have a very good blend of speed and strength, and the tools that could get him close on the right day in the right race.