Dear Americans if you want AR be prepared to run sub 12:49 this year. Sincerely Bernard Lagat

AiightWhat wrote:

Exactly! I think the poster who said he and his coach thinks he's capable of 12:46-12:47 in order for him to say he wants sub 12:50. You must admit regardless if you like or dislike Lagat that he isn't a trash talker and doesn't say anything unless he is certain he can deliver.

How could he possibly be CERTAIN that he could run 12:49? You people must really be stupid if you think that a 36 year old is CERTAIN that he is going to run a time that only one man has achieved over the age of 30.

I'm not going to argue whether or not he's doping (I personally don't believe he is), but, if one looks at all of his "Prep" races that he's done so far to prepare for this year, it's pointing towards a quite possible 12:49 . He's got this 2:48 1200m, a 8:10i 2-Mile AR, and a 13:08 5k. Looks like his preparation is coming along PERFECTLY.

Forgot what he ran for times at the Indoor 3k & Wanamaker, but both were solid for early prep races.

This 2:48 1200 is fine, but it is not that great. There are probably a couple dozen runners in the world who can do this, and NONE of them are likely to run 12:49 this year.

I don't think Bernard would say it, if he and his coach hadn't figured out that he can do it. Also, Bernard's recent 2:48 1200 suggest he is still capable of running a very fast mile, which is half of the equation towards running 12:49.

I remember a few years ago Lagat was gearing for a fast 5000 and Letsrun had a countdown to say goodbye to Kennedy's record.

But the record stayed with Kennedy for a while longer until Ritz touched it up.

Last year there was the big hype about Rupp getting Meb's record.

But the record no longer belonged to Meb or Rupp by the time Rupp finished the race.

Last year some regular Letsrun poster GUARANTEED that Rupp would break 13 by the end of the year.

But it didn't happen.

Lagat is great. Let's just see what happens and enjoy the show.

Bernard Lagat is a champ. He can definitely do it. No other explanation is needed.

Alan Webb will break 12:50 before he retires.

the article mentions a 2000m this summer. too bad tegenkamp and alan webb are far from in good shape. it would be nice too see one of solinsky and rupp do it to get a data point. both 3:5mid milers with endurance.

Really really come on now, Have more support for your fellow american! Lagat will run what he says... him and his coach now him the best and they now what works for him! Thats why hes been able to do so well for so long. He knows this might be his last few years of running so hes gonna push to the limit and break boundaries that no other american has done. It will lead way for future american and make them realize that if your not African(Yes I know Lagat is...) You better work your ass off and run under 12:50 if you want a medal at the olympics. Gooo Lagat, you can do this!

Other side note I think solinsky might go around 12:50 maybe with right training but he should focus on the 10K and get that olympic medal because thats his best chance speaking the 5k if lagat run under 12:50 all Africans will step it up more and solinsky cant do tha, so he should stick to the 10k

I remember reading an interview last year when he mentioned low 12:50s are in the cards: 12:54 seems rather ti be mid not low...

According to my mind not faster than 12:52

Yeah it seems your the only one who read Lagat saying he wanted to run low 12:50 in 2010. I'm a very big Bernard Lagat fan and know that in almost every interview he did last year he repeatedly stated, "yes I would like to get the AR this year."

He was carefully never to say a specific time, because I often read and wanted to know what he thought and in 2010 but he would never mention any specific time!

That's why I also think like some other posters that if he says it sub 12:50 (regardless of what us Letsrun's posters think)...Bernard and Coach Li are pretty sure he can achieve that time.

A Skeptic wrote:Um, that can't be, because Daniel Komen ran 3:29 and 12:39. The man sits at the right hand of God (or will one day) - you had better get his PRs right if you are going to talk about him.

3'29/12'39 ->7'19.6 , 26'29.8

MAPIV wrote:This 2:48 1200 is fine, but it is not that great. There are probably a couple dozen runners in the world who can do this, and NONE of them are likely to run 12:49 this year.

yes

2'48 is not a time to hang your hat on for sub-12'50

using same 10k range for him of 26'55 - 27'10 :

2'48 with

27'10 ->3'33.7 , 4'51.1 , 7'29.9 , 12'57.4

27'05 ->3'33.6 , 4'50.9 , 7'29.2 , 12'55.8

27'00 ->3'33.5 , 4'50.6 , 7'28.6 , 12'54.1

26'55 ->3'33.4 , 4'50.4 , 7'27.9 , 12'52.4

a 2'48 looks somewhere around equivalent of a 3'33 for a 5k/10k type

what a 3'30 guy coud expect to run for 1200 ?

all we can offer is a range with say 800 as you other parameter, say 1'42 - 1'44

3'30 with

1'44 ->2'43.8

1'43 ->2'43.3

1'42 ->2'42.7

2'43 is a "proper" time for this event from an elite 1500 guy

ventolin^3 wrote:

[quote]MAPIV wrote:This 2:48 1200 is fine, but it is not that great. There are probably a couple dozen runners in the world who can do this, and NONE of them are likely to run 12:49 this year.

Keep in mind that a 2:48 from a mile/5k guy is quite difference from an 800/mile guy. Also, it is April and Lagat always starts the season out much slower than he finishes. I am most impressed with how fast he was able to run going down in distance and doing it early in the season; he appears to be in 3:33 shape right now.

TrackCoach wrote:

Keep in mind that a 2:48 from a mile/5k guy is quite difference from an 800/mile guy. Also, it is April and Lagat always starts the season out much slower than he finishes. I am most impressed with how fast he was able to run going down in distance and doing it early in the season; he appears to be in 3:33 shape right now.

Actually, a 2:48 is rather to be expected from Lagat. It is NOT impressive, and is indicative of a man in 3:35 shape. Now it is true that he ran this at the end of April, so this is also expected. It is also expected that he would be in 3:35 shape now. He is unlikely to run faster than 3:32 this year, so he is naturally a bit off this at the moment. You MUST understand that Lagat ran 2:48.30, which is 3:30.38 pace, but remember this is finishing 1200 with a sprint, so there is no sense in expecting that he could continue that for another 300 meters, or even close to it, and so, as ventolin has posted, this is all rather predicated on his endurance, and if, as I suspect, he is currently in 27:20 shape, then he is perhaps in 13:03 shape, and he is likely to run faster by the end of this year, but not under 12:50, as only a fool would expect this...

it's a slow day, might as well throw in something of interest to some people

the evolution of bernie from his 3'26 prime to now is a sobering progression

currently, with a bit of trial'n'error, using 400/800 times to nearest 0.25s, i reckon a starting place is :

50.75 / 1'47.50 ->3'31.8 , 4'48.6 , 7'26.1 , 12'51.1 , 26'57.1

( i just don't see him better as 3'31 anymore )

back in his prime ( just to nearest 0.25s for 400m/800m & of course the distances above 1500 are purely theoretical as he stated he didn't train for anything above 1500 back then ) :

48.00 / 1'43.25 ->3'26.0 , 4'42.1 , 7'19.1 , 12'45.2 , 27'00.9

( in comparison, i'd reckon hicham, to nearest 0.20s for 400/800 was :

47.60 / 1'42.80 ->3'25.7 , 4'42.2 , 7'19.9 , 12'48.1 , 27'11.2 )

in best part of a decade, he's lost nearly 3s of 400 speed & over 4s of 800 speed

i must admit, because of his longevity, i've never seen such a progression !!

I am not sure why anybody would expect Lagat to run faster than 3:32 this year. These are his yearly bests for the previous four years...

2010 3:32.51

2009 3:32.56

2008 3:32.75

2007 3:33.85

Ventolin, I am not sure I agree with all your numbers above, but your general point is irrefutable. After all, Lagat set his personal best at 1500 meters before 9/11/2001...

ByeByeRecord wrote:

If Bernard runs 12:48-12:49.5 the record will be out of the reach of Solinsky and Tegenkamp. Only ten men have every run sub 12:50 and the last time was almost 4 years ago back in 2007. On a perfect day Solinksy and Tegenkamp may be able to run 12:49.9 but no faster and that perfect day seldom comes as indicated by the list of sub 12:50 performers.

I think it is worth noting that there has not been a sub 12:50 since 2007. If Lagat runs that fast, it will have to be in a race in which other runners run just as fast.

Lagat has never been a Bekele type runner that can go out and run a fast time on his own. Remember, he did not win any of the races in which he set his outdoor pbs. In every case he was pulled to those times by a faster runner.

So if Lagat is going to run that fast it will have to be in a race in which someone can pull the field to sub 12:50. This is not a sure thing by any means.