should be good
should be good
Lagat would likely beat Rupp at 1500. Lagat would likely beat Rupp at 5000. Let me guess: Lagat will likely beat Rupp at 3000...This is no knock on Rupp, who is simply outmatched here.
Just a rematch of last year's 3000m at USATF indoors, right? Lagat won, Rupp was second, Solinsky third. Both Lagat and Rupp had great races at World Indoors in Doha as well.
How can you compare the two.....one a world champ the other a NCAA champ.....
well Rupp did win a NCAA championship that Lagat never did (xc)
not a serious point, i'm just poking at you haha
I agree Lagat should be favored, especially such a short time after an AR in a near-identical distance. But the gap between them isn't huge, and it's possible Lagat could have a poor race (not that it seems to happen often at all).
lagat only seems to have a bad race when he races africans. i think he senses they are like a younger version of himself so his race tactics always seems a lil out of wack like u can sense his fear when racing them..
however in usa championship races where he is racing white guys, he seems to know exactly how to race them to win. his tactics are flawless and he makes it look easy.
not taking anything away from guys like rupp and solinsky who are damn near as good as the africans that beat lagat, its just lagat is always on point when racing americans.
with that said he'll just sit on rup for 2800m then kick like a bat out of hell the last 200 and win. he couldn't do that at the last wanamaker mile because that african dude was in it and kept surging when he tried to take the lead so he got scared and backed off.
i know i sound a lil biased here but im just stating my opinion.
lagat is unbeatable in usa championships unless webb or manzano bring there A++ game
Neither will win.
we saw in rupp's AR against Farah that he lacks the finishing speed to beat a guy like Rupp, who is very much superior to Farah.
The question is will Rupp just sit back and pray that by some miracle he will be able to out kick Lagat, or will he run from the front and try to put the crap into lagat's legs? Either way I kinda doubt he will have the speed to win.
jjjjjjjjj wrote:
we saw in rupp's AR against Farah that he lacks the finishing speed to beat a guy like Rupp, who is very much superior to Farah.
I agree, it's unlikely Rupp will beat Rupp.
But in all seriousness, obviously Lagat has to be the favorite. I think Rupp is doing some great things, but Lagat is still in awesome shape, Rupp seems to have improved from last year and is rounding into better shape. I think it'll be a decent race, but Lagat will leave him in the dust at the end.
Rupp won't match up with lagat probably for 1-2 more years at the earliest if he stays healthy. He may have a shot at going sub 13 this year, but Lagat will still be a low 12:50 talent if not better in the right race that he never gets in. 2012 will be the year that Rupp probably dips into the mid 12:50's, and Lagat being around the same. Although Rupp would obviously do the 10k in 2012.
Mrr82 wrote: we saw in rupp's AR against Farah that he lacks the finishing speed to beat a guy like Rupp...[/quote]
jjjjjjjjj wrote: I agree, it's unlikely Rupp will beat Rupp.[/quote]
But, Rupp has beaten Rupp before. The real question is which version of Rupp will finish ahead of the other Rupp.
Unless Lagat has a bad race, he will ahead of both Rupps.
It's a no-lose situation for Rupp...
He runs well and loses to Lagat...no big surprise. It is an opportunity for him to test himself against the same talent and tactics he will have to overcome in any event if he is to achieve the goal of medaling in a major championship
He runs well and surprises Lagat with a previously unseen giant kick...this would be a breakthrough that would pay the confidence dividend that Solinsky got last year and I could see Rupp going on to a Solinskyesque 2011...
Rupp never (or almost never) chokes out aka Webb so there's no reason to expect that kind of meltdown...
On the other hand, old age could suddenly hijack Lagat out of the blue (not that I expect it), and then you'd have the 'changing of the guard' moment which I thought was what happened in the 2008 olympics (but Lagat has miraculously moved past that and continues to kick ass).
Is the race in Albuquerque? I guess we can rule out a good time thanks to the altitude....too bad Rupp's 10k fell through...but given that nobody would be running for time I guess that means a good tactical race.
Although these are two of my favorite runners, I have to say that I would be excited if Rupp pulled the upset over Lagat. Rupp seems to always bring his A-game, and Lagat isn't good enough to win on a bad day.
Heath for the upset.
Rupp just finished losing to Mo Farrah at 5000. What on EARTH makes you think he will have a chance against Lagat at 3000.
The only "interesting" thing here is the over/under. I think 6.00 seconds is a fair spread, and predict Lagat winning by slightly more than that.
lagat a true american wrote:
lagat only seems to have a bad race when he races africans. i think he senses they are like a younger version of himself so his race tactics always seems a lil out of wack like u can sense his fear when racing them..
however in usa championship races where he is racing white guys, he seems to know exactly how to race them to win. his tactics are flawless and he makes it look easy.
not taking anything away from guys like rupp and solinsky who are damn near as good as the africans that beat lagat, its just lagat is always on point when racing americans.
Very interesting analysis. Hadn't thought of it this way, but think it's very true!
thanks...
i wanted to add i think rupps only chance of beating lagat is by sitting on him for 2k and running a very hard last 1k.
why? because they all know they are running a tactical race especially since its at altitude.
going with a k to go will surprise the hell outta lagat who should be leading up until this point.
with it being at altitude, i think this would take the sting out of lagats kick. it will just hurt like hell for rupp to do this.
if he can do it, he'll beat lagat. if he dies, lagat will catch him and he'll just jog it in for second.
this is a two man race, none of the other guys can go with them, maybe heath unless rupp did drop the hammer with a k to go, heath can't hang with that, thats world class racing.
maxruns wrote:
How can you compare the two.....one a world champ the other a NCAA champ.....
Ones a Ken- oops i mean American
That's a nice scenario but cmon....lets be honest here