McMillian says she should be capable of 29:34 which seems too fast for Mary. With some 10000m training I think she could/would push the pace for around 29:50-29:58 and medal.
You don't need a sub30 to medal at the WC. And I doubt it will happen. In a non-championship race I am pretty sure she could do it. And there is hope she erases Wang Junxia's record one day.
Who erases Wang Junixa 10000m WR Mary Keitany? I think if Mary focused on the 10000m this year she could probably run 29:52-30:00 on a perfect day; however, the best chance to take down the 10000m WR is Tiruesh Dibaba.
You say you don't need to be able to run sub 30 to medal when in any World or Olympic Championship you may very well need to and have been proven:
Both Tirunesh Dibaba and Elvan Abeylegesse completed the race in a time under the old Olympic record, recording the second and third fastest ever women's 10,000 metre times, making Dibaba the new Olympic record holder.
2008 Olympic 10000m Final
Rank Name Nationality Result Notes
1 Tirunesh Dibaba Ethiopia 29:54.66 OR, AR
2 Elvan Abeylegesse Turkey 29:56.34 AR
3 Shalane Flanagan United States 30:22.22 AR
4 Linet Chepkwemoi Masai Kenya 30:26.50 WJR, NR
5 Mariya Konovalova Russia 30:35.84 PB
6 Inga Abitova Russia 30:37.33 SB
7 Lucy Kabuu Wangui Kenya 30:39.96 PB
8 Lornah Kiplagat Netherlands 30:40.27 SB
9 Kimberley Smith New Zealand 30:51.00
10 Kara Goucher United States 30:55.16 PB
If Mary was to run the 2011 Worlds she could have to run sub 30 minutes to medal.