I was just looking through my old TFNews about Solinsky's 26:59 AR. Do you guys realize that if he just replicates that effort, he is pretty much going to medal, especially with Bekele unable to regain form.
One would like to think that he can progress to 26:45 fitness by 2012 and will just need to run steady at the Olympics and hammer home a 2:28 final kilo like he did at Stanford and an Olympic medal is his.
I am very excited for him.
So you are saying that if he shows up to the race, ignores the competition and just runs his own time trial and picks it up the last kilo he will win?
^
No, OP said he will medal. Medalling means 1st, 2nd or 3rd. You said win.
championship races are tactical. Generally the first 5000 is slow. Can he go 14:00 then 12:59? Or even 14:00 13:15 that's what it might take to medal.
coach wrote:
championship races are tactical. Generally the first 5000 is slow. Can he go 14:00 then 12:59? Or even 14:00 13:15 that's what it might take to medal.
The scariest/most exciting thing in my mind is that I think the answer is yes. His 5k Pr is 12:56 and he is strong going 14:00/13:15 is in reach for sure.
14:00/12:59... NO
14:00/13:15... Sure, why not?
I would imagine that the 14:00/12:59 scenario that you clearly came up with from I think the WC few years ago, is unlikely to repeat itself
I would guess its more like a 13:45/13:15-20 type race that gets you a medal (similar to in Beijing).
Yes, the weather will be better in London then it was in Beijing, which may yield faster times, but I just don't see it happening.
Don't forget, the Olympic record is 27:01, and before 2004 when Bekele beat it in a kick (barely), Haile G had it at 27:07! Also note that 27:22 medaled in 2004.
I think if Solinsky runs the 10k in London and runs smart, he'll medal.
There are hardly any top class 10,000m races now that's partly why his time is so far up the rankings
If he runs sub 27 in London he will medal though
Why do you limit yourself to Solinsky? If 26:59 will medal, then whoever runs that time will medal, according to your statement. Why not include Rupp, Ritz, and any others in your statement, which should say "ANYONE who runs 26:59 will medal..."
I think it is clear that the 10k will be significantly less competitive than the 5k. Right now in the 5k you just have so many guys that can run sub 13. The 10k right now is the weaker event and I think Ritz, Rupp, and Solinsky should all run it. Chances are one of them can get a medal.
I don't know that there are enough high quality 10,000 metre races any more to be able to make this statement. Some of those uber fast 5000 guys might just move up and the field evens out again.
That said I'm really pulling for Solinsky, due to his consistent health, training and racing.
It's a whole different ballgame when you have to run qualifying heats for the final race.
There hasn't been a qualifying round in the 10,000 in a WC or OG lately.
By replicates do you mean repeats?
Under Ultra wrote:
I was just looking through my old TFNews about Solinsky's 26:59 AR. Do you guys realize that if he just replicates that effort, he is pretty much going to medal, especially with Bekele unable to regain form.
One would like to think that he can progress to 26:45 fitness by 2012 and will just need to run steady at the Olympics and hammer home a 2:28 final kilo like he did at Stanford and an Olympic medal is his.
I am very excited for him.
You are overlooking the fact that it is about 18 months until the 2012 Olympics. In the interim, there will likely be others emerging who can run 26:40ish, and you are looking at a snapshot in time which does not correspond to reality. I would guess Solinsky has little chance to medal in 2012 in London. One thing you must recognize is that Solinsky's 26:59 was set up perfectly for him. Rupp was going for a record, there were rabbits, and Solinsky was along for the ride in wonderful running weather. This convergence of variables is unlikely to replicate itself in London in 2012.
Bill Huntington wrote:
There hasn't been a qualifying round in the 10,000 in a WC or OG lately.
The last qualification round for a 10000m in the Olympics was in 2000. 11 years is a long time but it has only been 2 Games since then.
Sols will take it out in 13:30, keep the pace honest, and blast the last 800 in 1:57.
Conto wrote:
14:00/12:59... NO
14:00/13:15... Sure, why not?
I would imagine that the 14:00/12:59 scenario that you clearly came up with from I think the WC few years ago, is unlikely to repeat itself
I would guess its more like a 13:45/13:15-20 type race that gets you a medal (similar to in Beijing).
Yes, the weather will be better in London then it was in Beijing, which may yield faster times, but I just don't see it happening.
Don't forget, the Olympic record is 27:01, and before 2004 when Bekele beat it in a kick (barely), Haile G had it at 27:07! Also note that 27:22 medaled in 2004.
I think if Solinsky runs the 10k in London and runs smart, he'll medal.
I think the East Africans have already served notice that things in Deagu and London are NOT going to be like they were in 2010. Bekele is apparently doubling, and Menjo will certainly be there.
I see the 10000 as the only distance hope, and even then, it will not be a cakewalk for Solinsky.
Better luck in the middle distances, particularly with the women, where Alysia Johnson was #1 in the world.
Sols could but that doesnt mean he will.
If solinsky goes out and runs a time trial like you guys are saying, there's fairly good odds that there will be a few "18 year old" kenyans there to sit on his ass and kick past him at the last. I think he would play it more tactical. He does definitely have a shot at a medal though. IF HE STAYS HEALTHY FROM NOW TILL THEN, HE SHOULD BE IN SUB 26:40 SHAPE.