Where's Wheating?

Wheating will tear it up. People with common sense understand that he is our best hope in the 1500m now that Bernie has moved up.

I heard he was in Egypt rising the rabel. Is that not true?

jjjjjjjj wrote:

If you're a dual citizen when you run the fastest time ever by a citizen of either country, then you should have that national record.

Lagat never had dual citizenship (Kenya doesn't allow it).

Heard through the grapevine wrote:"The law of averages?" What are you talking about?

He's talking about regression to the mean:

Are you saying every runner that has a good year is bound to follow it up with a down year?

No, if he wanted to say that, he would have said it. He's (very obviously) talking about what happens on average after outlier performances, not what happens to "every runner." It's a probability, not a certainty.

It would be an interesting data set to crunch: look at every runner who has ever run sub-3:31. Then figure out, after they ran sub-3:31 for the first time, whether they ran faster within the next year (or ever, for that matter). If I had to make a bet for or against, I know where my money would be.

Okay, I'm a geek, I decided to check the data:

41 men have run sub-3:31.00 in history.

After running sub-3:31.00 for the first time, 25 of those men never ran faster, while 16 subsequently improved their best time.

Alan Webb is the 8th fastest miler of all time. Of the 7 people who ran faster, only TWO (Morceli and El Guerrouj) ever ran that fast again.

Of the people on the IAAF all time list who ran faster than Wheating (35), these people never ran that fast again in their lifetimes, and that's basically 1/3 of the entire list:

Sebastian Coe

Steve Ovett

Alan Webb

Paul Korir

William Tannui

Ivan Heshko

Fermin Cacho

Sydney Maree

Fouad Chouki

Abdi Bile

3:30 isnt even that fast.

burnin wrote:

asfsf wrote:

Everyone knows Wheating parties during the winter.

Yes, more like Andrew "Weed"ing. Amirite? Amirite?

This is mentioned often. Why does he have the party boy image?

hold the phone wrote:

Okay, I'm a geek, I decided to check the data:

41 men have run sub-3:31.00 in history.

After running sub-3:31.00 for the first time, 25 of those men never ran faster, while 16 subsequently improved their best time.

How about breaking it down by age?

I say predicting a runner has peaked at age 22, or whatever Wheating is, makes zero sense.

I know what the law of averages means. I'm just saying statistics maybe predict future performances of a group, but it's a silly way to try to predict what a young rising star will do in the future.

SaintofTheIsle wrote:

I heard he was in Egypt rising the rabel. Is that not true?

I heard you were learning to read and write, until you had a frontal lobotomy. "Rising the rabel"?

You are a complete moron.

Wheating was in Portland today at the Nike Campus, running the bark perimeter trail, and then I saw him later on the track when I was finishing a workout with my group. We stopped and watched him run a couple of 400s with probably a minute rest in 54 and 53. I had to leave to pick up the kids, but he looked incredibly smooth and made those times look easy. I still have the last one on my watch!

Wow. He is obviously fairly fit. On a similar note, we saw Andrew over the weekend in Seattle. I think he was there with a few guys to watch the races at the Dempsey. Michael and I saw him doing 200m repeats at Husky Stadium. In the frickin' rain. We ran a fast 1200 (sub 3:00) and he rolled past us with ease, doing his own thing. Those micros sure tasted good after that!

How is Andrews traveling to these meets if he's a redshirt...?

I am so cool.

running and track workout jargon + a location near where a famous runner might be = I am a fast, cool runner by association, right?

or, that's what the previous poster is implying

nwmaster wrote:

Wow. He is obviously fairly fit. On a similar note, we saw Andrew over the weekend in Seattle. I think he was there with a few guys to watch the races at the Dempsey. Michael and I saw him doing 200m repeats at Husky Stadium. In the frickin' rain. We ran a fast 1200 (sub 3:00) and he rolled past us with ease, doing his own thing. Those micros sure tasted good after that!

Let us hope that Wheating is not following the Alan Webb (ahem) peaking plan. The main idea is to be in top shape in August, not February-May. BTW of the 5 top 1500 people outdoors last year, I believe only one has competed indoors so far.

Heard through the grapevine wrote:

I say predicting a runner has peaked at age 22, or whatever Wheating is, makes zero sense.

I know what the law of averages means. I'm just saying statistics maybe predict future performances of a group, but it's a silly way to try to predict what a young rising star will do in the future.

I didn't say Wheating had peaked - I was only speculating about how he would do in 2011.

I am very aware that statistics describe general patterns, whereas in this case we are talking about n=1 (Wheating). Nobody said that he was doomed because of statistics. But ignoring general patterns, and the strong tendency for outliers to drift back toward the mean, isn't smart either.

So if "statistics" is a "silly way" to make predictions about how Wheating will do in 2011, what is your method? Looking at duck entrails??

I made my prediction, which is definitely just speculation, and said why. Your turn. Then we can see who looks sillier at the end of the year.

P.S. Thanks "hold the phone" for providing a good thorough explanation of what I indeed meant.

itwasallyellow wrote:

who are those two guys?

if you think its wheating and symmonds might want to add one more name on the list.

yeah the man who paced lagat through to the AR on saturday night.

robby andrews will represent the US in DAEGU and probably make the final. He's young and still used the qualifying rounds that come with running every week in HS and college, the older boys forget its not just one race but a series. oh and andrews does what it takes to win, not just run fast.

Cas Loxsom is of the same caliber. Elijah Greer, theoretically, also has everything needed to be world class at 800 but for some reason hasn't been progressing lately. He has the talent though (ran 1:47 as a hs junior) and the resources (U of O).

Anyway, Robby Andrews is going to be a freakin animal. He looked pretty good pacing Lagat the other day.

jjjjjjj wrote:

take the example of baseball prospectus. nate silver's pecota projections generally predict conservative improvements for players under 27, unless they had a highly unexpected year, and worse stats for older players. here he's 22 and ran 3:30 in his only Euro 1500m. The odds that he peaked in that one race are very low. I predict at least a one second 800m pr this year, as his 800m time's still soft, and if he stays healthy, a 3:28 in the 1500m.

Aside from Wheating's youth, it's that he started running spring of his junior year in high school (I think). That's why everyone's so excited about him, and expects him to improve.

I think running a PR this year will all depend on if he gets in the right race when he's peaking and busts a fast one, so I won't make a bold time prediction like 3:28. I predict that this year he'll be competitive in the final at worlds, indicating that he has improved from last year. I also predict he'll be in some race that has a combination of screwed up pacing, bad weather, or an ineffective rabbit, and Ventolin will predict that he would have run 3:29 or faster with ideal splits and a "wabbit".

He'll definitely PR again someday unless he gets a bad injury or has some other catastrophe.

jjjjjjj wrote:

here he's 22 and ran 3:30 in his only Euro 1500m. The odds that he peaked in that one race are very low. I predict at least a one second 800m pr this year, as his 800m time's still soft, and if he stays healthy, a 3:28 in the 1500m.

This is what I'm talking about.

Even if you want to employ statistics to predict what Wheating does next year, how about doing it in a meaningful way? In other words, don't compare Wheating to ALL runners who ever ran a PR that put them in the US top 10 all time.

How about comparing him statistically to runners who:

1. ran a PR in a secondary-for-them event after moving up in distance

2. did so the summer after graduating from college, and

3. did so having just signed a lucrative, multi-year professional contract with THE top T&F sponsor, ensuring that he'll have coaching and logistical support, and incentive to train and race at a high level until he's at least 28-29.

I doubt you can find many people in similar circumstances, and I've even left out the fact that Wheating started running so recently, and has been a pretty low mileage runner.

How many long-term, top-level pros run a PR the summer they turn pro, after a long college season in which they race a lot and double at championships, and then NEVER beat that PR the rest of their pro career?

If you're going to put forth statistics, try to make them meaningful.