Could a fit Alan Webb break 3000M WR?

malmo wrote:

I'm willing to bet that the difference between L1 (400m) and L1 on a banked 200m track is almost back to negligible, especially at 1500m velocity.

Since eldrick has never run on an indoor track he won't understand what I'm talking about. He also won't understand the difference between the engineering of regular board tracks (even at 160yds, 11 laps to the mile, some of them could produce PRs) and that of a 'tuned' track.

Great points. I'm not sure why someone would be so quick to discount practical experience (aside from having none, of course).

I´m certainly no Komen or Geb, but I have a 3,47 1500 PB and I have raced on outdoor tracks, unbanked and banked tracks and someone who says that a banked track is not faster than an unbanked is so far away from the practical experience of competitive runners that I won´t even bother to discuss with him.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

Malmo, can you briefly describe what tuning is? I know you said all the details may be above your pay grade but I am not sure even what the basics are.

Thanks.

Here is an explanation from someone who is in the business. Pretty much how I understood it.

"The term "tuned" can have 2 different meanings in the track construction world.

One definition has to do with the track surface itself, which in this case is Mondo, and how firm or soft it is. When we install track surfacing systems experienced installers can adjust the recipe during the installation process and make it firmer or softer depending on what the coach/owner wants.

With Mondo, since it's a pre-made rubber product, they make the surface of the rubber softer, never firmer since Mondo's already very firm, but the downside here is that track spikes tears it up much faster.

The other definition, and most likely what they're referring to in this case is the "tuning" of the framework that the track surface sits on. They can adjust the boards for more or less "bounce" effect during the runner's footstrike. But more importantly, with the use of hydralics, they can adjust the degree of bank on the turns for different events, higher for sprint events like the 200, 400, MR, and lower for the distance races.

Bottom line, it's a world with which our generation is not familiar with! Cobo Hall would be a dinosaur compare to any of today's tracks!"

Thanks for the explanation.

Malmo

The manufacturers/stadium engineers have to be very careful with inserting boards or somesuch to possibly increase bounce.

Most of these modern tracks are close to limit of IAAF force reduction limit of 35%

http://www.isss.de/conferences/Nyon2002/IAAF_CERT_summary.htm

( See "Force reduction" )

Inserting boards may tip them over the edge & get this figure below 35% & therefore an illegal track for record purposes.

If they are going to insert boards, they will have to ensure that they keep within specified forced reduction parameters ( which requires re-certification & isn't cheap ) to maintain legality.

Something tells me, that they aren't getting re-certification after this & is therefore a questionable practice

After giving this topic a lot of thought, my gut feeling is that yes, Webb can break the 3000M WR. Webb has indicated in past interviews that this record is something near and dear to his heart and he would like to take a serious shot at it eventually.

In July 2007 he actually ran 2400 meters at the WR pace in training. Unfortunately due to scheduling conflicts he was not able to run any fast 3Ks the remainder of that season.

Look for him to run a couple of rabbited 3000s this summer in the 7:24 range and attempt the record next summer.

I predict 7:19.45.

If Webb had done that workout at even pace he'd have missed Jim Spivey's American record for 2000m (4:52) by about a second en route.

I wonder if Spivey's true potential for 3000m was a lot higher than his 7:37 lifetime best.

Eldrick. The manufacturers are not 'inserting boards' they are already there in the decking.

The rules you are citing are for outdoor tracks. Why do you keep insisting on going off on an irrelevant tangent?

What the hell? Webb is washed up. The last good season he had was in 2007. Will everybody agree he is washed up and just write him off already. He has a 0% chance of ever getting a world record at 800, 1500, 3000, 5000, or 10000 meters. 0%.

In the know.... wrote:

After giving this topic a lot of thought, my gut feeling is that yes, Webb can break the 3000M WR. Webb has indicated in past interviews that this record is something near and dear to his heart and he would like to take a serious shot at it eventually.

When Alan Webb runs 3:29 and 12:39 you can speculate about him breaking the WR at 3000m, but not a day before.

Malmo: care to guess what Webb might have run for 3000m if he had tacked one on to his great string of races in July '07?

I think that 7:32 would be a good guestimate.

And his 5000m fitness at that time? Or perhaps that's too far to extrapolate.

It's not an accident that Komen dominates the 3000m and 2 mile. There is no other athlete with 1500/5000 credentials that he has.

1 3:26.00 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Roma 14.07.1998

3 3:26.34 Bernard Lagat KEN 12.12.74 2 Bruxelles 24.08.2001

9 3:27.37 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Nice 12.07.1995

10 3:27.40 Bernard Lagat KEN 12.12.74 1 Zürich 06.08.2004

15 3:28.12 Noah Ngeny KEN 02.11.78 2rA Zürich 11.08.2000

30 3:28.95 Fermin Cacho ESP 16.02.69 2rA Zürich 13.08.1997

31 3:28.98 Mehdi Baala FRA 17.08.78 2 Bruxelles 05.09.2003

32 3:29.02 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen KEN 27.11.84 1r2 Roma 14.07.2006

38 3:29.14 Rashid Ramzi BRN 17.07.80 2r2 Roma 14.07.2006

39 3:29.18 Vénuste Niyongabo BDI 09.12.73 2 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

44 3:29.27 Silas Kiplagat KEN 20.08.89 1 Monaco 22.07.2010

46 3:29.29 William Chirchir KEN 06.02.79 3 Bruxelles 24.08.2001

50 3:29.46 Saïd Aouita MAR 02.11.59 1r1 Berlin 23.08.1985

50 3:29.46 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Monaco 16.08.1997

1 12:37.35 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Hengelo 31.05.2004

2 12:39.36 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Helsinki 13.06.1998

3 12:39.74 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

9 12:46.53 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Roma 02.07.2004

10 12:47.04 Sileshi Sihine ETH 29.01.83 2 Roma 02.07.2004

13 12:48.66 Issac Songok KEN 25.04.84 2 Zürich 18.08.2006

14 12:48.81 Stephen Cherono KEN 15.10.82 1 Ostrava 12.06.2003

16 12:49.28 Brahim Lahlafi MAR 15.04.68 1 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

19 12:49.71 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 2 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

20 12:49.87 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 3 Zürich 13.08.1997

1 7:20.67 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Rieti 01.09.1996

2 7:23.09 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Bruxelles 03.09.1999

3 7:25.02 Ali Saïdi-Sief ALG 15.03.78 1 Monaco 18.08.2000

4 7:25.09 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Bruxelles 28.08.1998

5 7:25.11 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Monaco 02.08.1994

12 7:26.62 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 2 Monaco 18.08.2000

15 7:27.18 Moses Kiptanui KEN 01.10.70 1 Monaco 25.07.1995

19 7:27.59 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 27.11.75 2 Monaco 08.08.1998

20 7:27.67 Ali Saïdi-Sief ALG 15.03.78 1 Saint-Denis 23.06.2000

21 7:27.72 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Bruxelles 03.09.2004

22 7:27.75 Thomas Nyariki KEN 27.09.71 2 Monaco 10.08.1996

24 7:28.28 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 27.11.75 2 Oslo 09.07.1998

24 7:28.28 James Kwalia KEN 12.06.84 2 Bruxelles 03.09.2004

27 7:28.41 Paul Bitok KEN 26.06.70 3 Monaco 10.08.1996

28 7:28.45 Assefa Mezgebu ETH 19.06.78 3 Monaco 08.08.1998

30 7:28.64 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Saint-Denis 17.07.2009

32 7:28.70 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 4 Monaco 10.08.1996

1 7:24.90 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Budapest 06.02.1998

2 7:26.15 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Karlsruhe 25.01.1998

4 7:27.80 Alamirew Yenew ETH 90 1 Stuttgart 05.02.2011

6 7:28.00 Augustine Choge KEN 21.01.87 2 Stuttgart 05.02.2011

9 7:29.37 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 3 Stuttgart 05.02.2011

10 7:30.51 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Stockholm 20.02.2007

13 7:31.09 Tariku Bekele ETH 21.01.87 1 Stuttgart 02.02.2008

19 7:32.02 Sammy Alex Mutahi KEN 01.06.89 3 Stockholm 10.02.2010

20 7:32.41 Sergio Sánchez ESP 01.10.82 1rA Valencia 13.02.2010

1 7:58.61 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Hechtel 19.07.1997

2 7:58.91 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Sydney 28.02.1998

3 8:01.08 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Hengelo 31.05.1997

6 8:03.50 Craig Mottram AUS 18.06.80 1 Eugene 10.06.2007

7 8:03.54 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Lappeenranta 14.07.1996

8 8:04.83 Tariku Bekele ETH 21.01.87 2 Eugene 10.06.2007

9 8:07.07 Matt Tegenkamp USA 19.01.82 3 Eugene 10.06.2007

11 8:07.68 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Eugene 04.06.2005

12 8:09.01 Moses Kiptanui KEN 01.10.70 1 Hechtel 30.07.1994

13 8:10.59 Benjamin Limo KEN 23.08.74 1 Eugene 28.05.2006

14 8:10.98 Khalid Boulami MAR 07.08.69 1 Hechtel 06.07.1996

17 8:11.48 Alan Webb USA 13.01.83 2 Eugene 04.06.2005

18 8:11.59 Bob Kennedy USA 18.08.70 2 Hechtel 19.07.1997

19 8:11.62 Boaz Cheboiywo KEN 02.08.78 3 Eugene 04.06.2005

20 8:11.73 Ismaïl Sghyr MAR 16.03.72 2 Hechtel 06.07.1996

21 8:11.74 Dathan Ritzenhein USA 30.12.82 4 Eugene 10.06.2007

22 8:12.17 Khalid Skah MAR 29.01.67 1 Hechtel 31.07.1993