Derderian wrote:
Malmo makes me wonder how you would calculate what a country "should"produce in a track event. Might there be a formula?
Tom
In some disciplines, it is not so difficult, although some factors are still hard to measure objectively. Let's take discus throw: The average discus thrower is cca 198 cm tall.
Now let's examine some of the tallest and/or most populous populations in the world:
Dutch - 184 cm, SD 6,8, population size 15 million
Dinaric Alps - 184,6 cm (in 17-year olds), which would equal to at least 186 cm in adults, SD 6,84, roughly 5 million people
US whites - 178,9, SD 6,5, 200 million people
Russia, 177,2, SD 6,4 cm, 140 million people
Germany, 179,5, SD unknown (say 6,5), 80 million people
How many males with the height of 198 cm and more would you find in these countries/regions? I will calculate it from the total population, so the numbers can serve only as a tool for a relative comparison:
Dutch: 1,98% x 15 = 0,297
Dinaric Alps: 3,97% x 5 = 0,199
US whites: 0,165% x 200 = 0,33
Russia: 0,056% x 140 = 0,0784
Germany: 0,221% x 80 = 0,177 (or 0,26, if we used SD 6,8)
So, the first place goes to US whites, followed by the Netherlands, Dinaric Alps, Germany and Russia. The same ranking would be applicable to basketball or volleyball.
Do you think that India and China could compensate it by their 1-billion population size? Let's test it:
India, 170,4 cm (median), SD unknown, usually around 6,0, but let's say 171 cm with SD 6,0, population size 1,19 billion.
The proportion of Indians with the height of 198 cm would be 0,0003% x 1190 = 0,00357. In other words, the population of India would have to grow up to 26,133 billion to compensate the potential of Russia in this regard. Te average height in today's China is almost exactly the same.
How well do black Americans fare in this regard?
178,0 cm, SD 6,9, 40 million.
0,187% x 40 = 0,0748.
And my native country?
Czech republic: 180,3 cm in 17-years olds, SD 6,9, 10 million people. There are roughly 0,516% young males with the height of 198 cm, which produces our "coefficient" 0,0516 - quite favourable even in comparison with such large countries like Russia. And it would be cca 0,0687, if I included a more realistic height 181 cm in fully grown males.
Naturally, these calculations can't be taken too seriously, but they aren't far from the truth. The diffirences in population age structure couldn't be taken into account either. But you can see that irrespectively of population size, "small" countries like China or India can't be competetive in height-demanding sports.
Further, we must take into account another differences in body build like limb proportions or somatotype. This is much harder to ascertain, however. All we can say is that East Euros (and specially Northeast Euros) have the best somatic type and limb proportions for discus throw, followed by Dinaric mountaineers, Germans, Dutch and US whites. The ranking is thus practically reversed, which makes our final conclusion difficult.
Nevertheless, on per capita basis, the biggest sources of talent for discus throw are quite clear: Estonia and - with some reservatons concerning limb proportions - Dinaric Alps.
In absolute numbers, I think that either of the five countries/ethnicities can successfully compete in discus throw - which reasonably well agrees with the historical stats,
http://www.apulanta.fi/matti/yu/alltime/20_Men.htmlexcept that West Balkanese and Dutch don't compete in athletics virtually at all (and the Dutch gene pool is actually represented only indirectly by Frantz Kruger).
If the secular height increase continues in countries like Turkey and Iran, we could expect growing number of athletes even from these regions. But currently, they are still too small, which is their major drawback.