Where would Lucas V have finished in NCAAs this year?

The OP asked where he would have finished THIS year. All of the runners listed improved from their FL race to their NCAA race - basically a year of training/racing.

LV should and could do the same. THIS year would have been 19th, next year - top 5 if he picks the right school.

Goucher high school career was cut short due to injuries and Puskedra was a 4:06 miler and 8:46 2miler. I don't see how Lucas is way more talented than Puskedra.

Using the Illinois XC Championships as a gauge, he would be in the top 20. Other sub-14 guys from the Illinois State Championships ALL finished in the top 20 as freshman...Virgin (Illinois), Derrick (Stanford), Graves (Auburn) Spivey (Indiana). Spivey ran 14:00 at Detweiller. Can't recall how fast the Torres brothers ran at Detweiller or how they finished as freshman. The great mystery is will Lukas be more effective at the longer distances than he was in H.S. I think his physique, smooth running style lend himself to the longer collegiate races than the shorter HS courses.

If the NCAA cross country meet was one week after Kinney and they let him in Saturday he would run a fantastic race to finish 35th. What has he done that people think top 20 other than missing the state record by three seconds? He knew going in how fast he had to run and what his splits needed to be and still missed a record set by an 8:41 2 miler. Do you realize how many 8:41 two milers there are competing in the NCAA meet?

Didn't something like 30 guys break 8:00 for 3000 indoors last year in D1? 8:00 is an 8:39 two mile.

And those that are basing he'd finish high up based on his smooth long stride, last time I checked it wasn't a beauty contest.

The only thing so far I see pointing towards him stepping up and being a star right away is 1) He wins everything and the competition is solid for high school

2)14:18 as a sophomore indoors indicates he should be running sub 13:50 as a senior this spring.

But lets wait and see. It should be exciting for him this spring.

redbirdy wrote:

Using the Illinois XC Championships as a gauge, he would be in the top 20. Other sub-14 guys from the Illinois State Championships ALL finished in the top 20 as freshman...Virgin (Illinois), Derrick (Stanford), Graves (Auburn) Spivey (Indiana). Spivey ran 14:00 at Detweiller. Can't recall how fast the Torres brothers ran at Detweiller or how they finished as freshman. The great mystery is will Lukas be more effective at the longer distances than he was in H.S. I think his physique, smooth running style lend himself to the longer collegiate races than the shorter HS courses.

By your own logic that actually means that he would finish in the top 20, NEXT year. As for this year, considering he ran just sub 15 at Terre Haute, I would say that with better competition, etc he could roll through in 15:10 and keep going, which puts him at 30-40 I believe. That gives him the benefit of the doubt in terms of how hard the effort was at Terre Haute and how much he was holding back.

Wrong, Dave Walters broke 14 at Detweiller in 1973 and never finished in the top 20 at NCAA cross country.

redbirdy wrote:

Using the Illinois XC Championships as a gauge, he would be in the top 20. Other sub-14 guys from the Illinois State Championships ALL finished in the top 20 as freshman...Virgin (Illinois), Derrick (Stanford), Graves (Auburn) Spivey (Indiana). Spivey ran 14:00 at Detweiller. Can't recall how fast the Torres brothers ran at Detweiller or how they finished as freshman. The great mystery is will Lukas be more effective at the longer distances than he was in H.S. I think his physique, smooth running style lend himself to the longer collegiate races than the shorter HS courses.

T BONE wrote:

He's hands down the best hs runner in the country, thats why we all think he's that good.

he's dominated hs running for 2 straight years.

no one's really come close to him. it'll be interesting to see where he finishes next year. im thinking top 10.

No one's really come close to him?

The Rosa twins spanked his ass good in the two mile last year.

lukasverzbicas<3 wrote:

how can he not hold it together for a 5k? thats how he won in 5k national events the last two weeks right... especially at nike where he was challenged almost the whole way. yes you are right he definitely cant hold it together... not.

I guess you didn't watch the Footlocker race where he was dying and kept looking back to see if he was being caught and then his arms were flying all over the place with his index finger pointing out and then he was so tired he actually walked across the finish line. Man, what race were you watching?

Puskedra, Derrick, Fernandez...

I think Verzbicas is just as talented (if not more than) as those guys and look how they did their freshman year.

I think he could have finished top 25 this year had he trained for the 8k and 10k.

He could finish top 10 next year, wouldn't surprise me at all...that kid is a beast and has DOMINATED, everyone the last 2 years.

LV runs 10k after TT-ing 40k on the bike. He's fit, not just another trained-up, over-raced HS kid. I don't think he'd have any problem with the 8k distance and wouldn't be suprised to see him around the top-10 NCAA's.

Well considering that he beat Solomon Haile by a few seconds but got handled pretty easily by Dunbar in 2 mile his Sophomore season, I'd say that at best he could hang with those guys in cross right now..(17th and 25th at Nats I believe)....I'm sure those guys have logged more miles and stepped up their training more than LV since they faced off a year and half ago so that's why I see that as his upper limit right now. Plus I think both of those guys are similar to LV in that they are probably stronger in cross than in the 2 mile.

However, who knows what his ceiling is if he concentrates solely on running.....wouldn't be shocked to see him challenging for top 10 next year.

A 15 year old is likely to be on a different improvement curve than a 17 year old and a 21 year old:)

rough gauge wrote:

Well considering that he beat Solomon Haile by a few seconds but got handled pretty easily by Dunbar in 2 mile his Sophomore season, I'd say that at best he could hang with those guys in cross right now..(17th and 25th at Nats I believe)....I'm sure those guys have logged more miles and stepped up their training more than LV since they faced off a year and half ago so that's why I see that as his upper limit right now. Plus I think both of those guys are similar to LV in that they are probably stronger in cross than in the 2 mile.

However, who knows what his ceiling is if he concentrates solely on running.....wouldn't be shocked to see him challenging for top 10 next year.

Really............im already tired of this guy

Goucher got 2nd as a Freshman, Ritz 4th. I think Lukas will compete for the top five or ten next year.

There isn't a place for him in the top 20-30 this year, I don't think. As a HS senior, I bet he would be top 30-40.

The only HS senior I would say could have been top ten in the nation as a senior was Ritz. 3rd at World Junior Cross is better than most freshman do after their first cross season (Derrick, Fernandez got 15th or so, right?). I don't think it's a stretch to say Ritz would have been top five as a senior with a chance to win.

Yeah agreed...except this is counter balanced by the step up in training that those guys did moving to college.....and I haven't seen anything from LV that suggests that he's made any huge leaps since then.....just normal steady proges similar to those guys.

I mean aren't his track Pr's around 14:18/upper 8:40's and 4:04...Dunbar went 13:55 (with one shoe the last 1k)/8:01/4:01 last spring and Haile went 13:58/8:02.....and Lukas demonstrated quite clearly that as recently as July that he wasn't in 8:01 shape....so even if Lukas made a jump over the summer I'd still contend that at best it puts him even with the Dunbars and Hailes in NCAA.... Talentwise...yeah LV looks to have a higher ceiling but as of today I'd still lay my money down on Dunbar and Haile...at least until Haile starts to show the effects of aging.

Here is what Lukas will do this upcoming track season. 1. He will run a 3:58 mile 2.He will run a 8:28 2mile. 3. He will run a 13:27 5000. 4. He will take down Rudy Chapa's record for the 10,000. At the end of all this he will reach GOAT status and everyone will forget about Ritz as they should.

Great point on that the top 10 runners at NC's are typically sub 13:50, sub 29:00 type guys and that Ritz was already a 13:44 runner.

Really put that into perspective as to why Ritz did so well and why he was able to place so highly.

THIS YEAR Lucas probably would have been between 15th and 40th. He has run 4:04 and 14:19 (I believe.) I assume he is in about 14:00 5k shape right now, which puts him in the top 40 conversation for sure. But, no way he is top-10. Those guys are good.

Menace wrote:

Here is what Lukas will do this upcoming track season. 1. He will run a 3:58 mile 2.He will run a 8:28 2mile. 3. He will run a 13:27 5000. 4. He will take down Rudy Chapa's record for the 10,000. At the end of all this he will reach GOAT status and everyone will forget about Ritz as they should.

And then he's going to quit running and do the tri full time : (