Convince me why Cam Newton won't be the best QB in the NFL in 5 years

I do agree with several posters above that entering the NFL in superb physical condition (and joining camp early) are significant predictors of success. Russell is the poster boy for not doing so. He was so ridiculously out of shape and not dialed in mentally to the game that it was absurd. (By the way, Marcus Dupree's downslide began with being so out of shape in the ASU bowl game - a massive body with that kind of speed endures a lot of stress - the last thing he could afford to do was be out of shape).

The jury is out whether Cam Newton will do the right things. Perhaps this year's experience will actually help him in terms of humility.

Success at quarterback in the NFL is likely the single hardest thing to predict. It requires far more than athletic skill. Tom Brady is essentially a quick release, accurate decision machine that makes him very difficult to blitz or rush. Who knows whether Newton can develop those kind of skills? One thing I do like (in contrast to his fellow Auburn alum Jason Campbell) is that while he has a cannon for an arm, he doesn't have a slow release. Again, query how accurate he will be throwing 20 and third yard passes with speedy defenses in his face. His talent is clear, but given the problems with the QB position, his is a risky pick.

way back when wrote:

Tom Brady is essentially a quick release, accurate decision machine that makes him very difficult to blitz or rush. Who knows whether Newton can develop those kind of skills? One thing I do like (in contrast to his fellow Auburn alum Jason Campbell) is that while he has a cannon for an arm, he doesn't have a slow release. Again, query how accurate he will be throwing 20 and third yard passes with speedy defenses in his face.

This poster, in my opinion, is the closest to offering a decent assessment on this topic. Newton's ceiling is really high and there will be teams that drool over his potential. While I'm relatively "neutral" on Cam Newton, there is one thing that scares me about a player like him - he's simply the best athlete on the field in the college game. When he enters the NFL he's going to encounter linebackers who are every bit as fast as him and defensive backs who hit like college linebackers.

In the college game he's been able to excel because he's far-and-away the most athletic guy. Success at the QB position in the NFL is different. It's much more about good decision-making, defensive anticipation, and release time. I would never suggest that Can Newton (a) doesn't have these traits or (b) can't develop them, but I would argue that he hasn't been forced to demonstrate them every down in the college game.

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren't freak athletes. They're terrific at minimizing hits by staying one step ahead of the defense. Newton's game is to absorb hits and shed college tacklers.

I expect a team to pick Newton in the top half of the 1st round because of his potential but I tend to be cautious in my evaluation of him.

2 fair posts. clearly you two understand the game well.

It will be interesting to see how things play out with the draft.

Cowboys are setting up to get another great draft, with top 5 pick potential if they don't win again. Clearly they had bad coaching/leadership and will be looking to roll next year.

Detroit is tough on D and will only get tougher after this draft, look for them to be like KC or Tampa were this year, or better.

Cam Newton, in my opinion, will go 12 - 20 in the draft, unless he completely wows or blows at the combine.

If Dallas was smart and they got a top 5 pick in the draft they would get a new QB. Romo is good/better than average but he has serious downsides. They would be smart to pick up Cam and have him develop slowly. It could be their answer to Vick.

turd in a jar wrote:

2 fair posts. clearly you two understand the game well.

It will be interesting to see how things play out with the draft.

Cowboys are setting up to get another great draft, with top 5 pick potential if they don't win again. Clearly they had bad coaching/leadership and will be looking to roll next year.

Detroit is tough on D and will only get tougher after this draft, look for them to be like KC or Tampa were this year, or better.

Cam Newton, in my opinion, will go 12 - 20 in the draft, unless he completely wows or blows at the combine.

Do any of the girls that shoot up based on combine results really ever pan out? Cam hasn't shown anything that suggests he is a NFL level passer. He also hasn't been asked to.College football is all about getting better athletes and then getting a mismatch. Why pick on the other teams NFL caliber corner when you get pick on the guy that will be in the CFL next year?

turd in a jar wrote:

2 fair posts. clearly you two understand the game well.

It will be interesting to see how things play out with the draft.

Cowboys are setting up to get another great draft, with top 5 pick potential if they don't win again. Clearly they had bad coaching/leadership and will be looking to roll next year.

Detroit is tough on D and will only get tougher after this draft, look for them to be like KC or Tampa were this year, or better.

Cam Newton, in my opinion, will go 12 - 20 in the draft, unless he completely wows or blows at the combine.

Please don't suggest to any one in Dallas that kind of idea. Jerry Jones might start thinking he's smart again.

[quote]asdfasdfas wrote:

Do any of the girls that shoot up based on combine results really ever pan out? Cam hasn't shown anything that suggests he is a NFL level passer. He also hasn't been asked to.

College football is all about getting better athletes and then getting a mismatch. Why pick on the other teams NFL caliber corner when you get pick on the guy that will be in the CFL next year?

[quote]

Doesn't matter if they pan out or not. People can have big combine workouts that move them up the draft charts.

With regard to Newton, anyone who doesn't think he has a cannon for an arm and has shown excellent short and long pass accuracy is crazy. What has already been left to imagination is whether or not he can handle the snap from behind center and read the defenses at a speed quick enough to be successful on the NFL level.

Personally, I am not sold on Luck. He throws better than the turd, Leinart from USC, but he is a bit foolish taking tackles like he does. All it will take is one hit by a big NFL linebacker and his career is over. Newton will be able to asborb those hits better, but neither should try it. If Luck is smart enough to make the change to sliding, he should do okay. He is being hyped up as the best qb prospect in awhile but I just don't see it. Newton certainly isn't that either, just saying.

Skelton from Arizona came out slinging yesterday. He is looking to be a steal from the 5th round last year. It is obviously still early and it was only one start, with some off target throws as well. Wish my team would have picked him up.

Just checked and not that it is a sign that he will make it in the NFL but Cam Newton has the highest passer rating in the NCAA.

+1 to the Akili Smith reference.

It all depends on what team you end up on unless you payton manning who went to a crappy team that was smart and built a team around him. Vick was good but not great early because the falcon had nobody when he was there. Crumpler who is very average was the only guy he had to throw to back then. Now Vicks got insane weapons around him. Desean Jackson is the Vick of wide receiver which helps alot. Newtwon is good but he will get drafted by a horrible team and won't be able to get away with being bigger than everyone tackling him in the pros because everyone is bigger and faster.

All good points but you think a team in the top 5 will pick Newton? There really are only a few crappy teams in the NFL this year(Carolina, Cincy), in my opinion. Some of the teams with bad records are actually pretty competitive - Detroit, Cleveland, Dallas, San Fran. Buffalo has some good pieces to build on as well.

[quote]ehhhh wrote:

Vick was good but not great early because the falcon had nobody when he was there.quote]

Matty Ice > Mike Vick.

Btw. Warrick Dunn was pretty good. So was Roddy White(2005-present).

HRE wrote:

The pay cut he'll take moving to the NFL from Auburn will depress him. He'll be unmotivated and will underperform as a result.

Lol - that's good.

Cam Newton will not even perform as well as Vince Young (semi-bust). He is not an accurate passer and his release is just average. His athletic skills are very impressive, but he won't amount to much more than curiosity. I also think he is kind of dumb and wouldn't be able to read an nfl defense or manage a game.

Newton should be converted to a fullback. That's where I think he will fit best. He likes punishment. He already knows how to take a pounding. He needs to learn how to block. As a QB in the NFL he'll only get frustrated, much like JaMarcus Russell did.

JaMarcus Russell

Have you guys who say Newton cant read defenses ever watched an auburn game? Commentators are always going on and on about how he waits for his blockers perfectly while running. He does, although, not always exhibit great pocket passing. That was shown in the alabama game where when he tried to scramble a couple of times, he was sacked. However, there is some evidence of him being able to pass in the pocket and thats correctable.

Can't believe I used to take running advice from you guys...

Why is he JaMarcus? Because he is athletic and black? Why isn't Luck Ryan Leaf?

This is Letsrun wrote:

JaMarcus Russell

One thing Newton, Leaf, and Russell have in common, they have all been arrested. The difference being Newton did it before being a pro, and for theft rather than drugs.

[quote]Interesting ideas here wrote:

Why is he JaMarcus? Because he is athletic and black? Why isn't Luck Ryan Leaf?

[quote]

Because 99% of letsrunners don't understand football. Jamarcus Russel was throwing to 2 guys who were drafted in the first round of the same draft he went #1. One of those guys was leading the nfl in tds before this past weekend.

He was lazy, had NFl talent all around him and couldn't run. Only his size and his passing accuracy % was similar. Give JR the Auburn squad and you never hear of Jamarcus Russel.