Changing my opinion on Gold

i wonder what the price of gold would be without the tea party.

Flagpole, you're such a tease with this subject line. You didn't really change your views on gold. You're simply admitting that a prediction you made ended up wrong (that gold would not stay where it was going forward from March 2009). Big difference!

Flagpole wrote:

I still think that EVENTUALLY gold will come down as the stock market goes north, but I really have no idea when in the process this will happen.

Hmm, why do you see a necessary negative correlation between the stock market and gold? Is there any data on this?

People are really getting sick of you flagpole.

Lie low for a while on the site, use some different usernames, try not to be as annoying....anything dude. Your same old useless economic bullish-t advice gets no one anywhere and as you are here admitting, only digging you deeper and deeper into the hole that is your finances. Please spare us all your drivel and either getting a new username or STFU.

You are welcome.

Looks like it's time to sell gold.

How did you log in as Flagpole?

I have thought for years that gold was not a particularly good investment, based on the long-term performance compared to other stuff (like mutual finds). But obviously gold has done extremely well in the past several years, and even better by comparison to the anemic stock market. Certainly if I had a time machine, I'd go back and buy some. But going forward, I probably still won't--if only because it seems foolish to buy anything when it's at its peak value.

The hard thing to figure out is whether ANY of the old rules apply. All the fine print says "past performance is no guarantee of future results," but I used to think that certain fundamentals were unchanging. Nowadays, between debt, bailouts, QE2, a possible return to stagflation, and no telling what else, I worry that there is an entirely new game afoot and that I don't even know the rules.

yep, $60+ Trillion in unfunded liabilities will make you think twice.

I might go on a power tool and small machinery spending spree this Christmas, because lord knows those products will take a loooong time after the collapse to get back this low.

when everyone is talking about an investment, it is too late to make much money off of it. Gold has flown high on wild speculation, although it is still well below its inflation adjusted high from around 1980, but with the economy improving and organizations being willing to bail out various governments (or in Ireland's case, various European banks whose debts Ireland's government unwisely chose to guarantee) there will be no major collapse and gold will not turn out to be a good investment. We had that collapse already. Thanks, W.

Aliens or Whatnot wrote:

How did you log in as Flagpole?

he didn't he just posted with a space after the name.

I actually think Gold still has a ton of upside to it. It hasn't even had a buying climax which typically ends uptrends or bubbles.

gold is the most bullish commodity out there, therefore its one you should keep buying on dips until it exhausts itself. Its a bubble, could double in price from here! who knows.

Brumby Gully wrote:

Flagpole, you're such a tease with this subject line. You didn't really change your views on gold. You're simply admitting that a prediction you made ended up wrong (that gold would not stay where it was going forward from March 2009). Big difference!

Nah. Just to be clear, I used to tell people here that it was silly to buy gold, and while I'm not yet to the point that I will buy gold, I no longer (at least for now) will be telling them that it's silly to buy it. Even old dogs can learn new tricks, and as is the point of this thread, I am admitting (without even being prompted) that I was wrong on gold.

There...does that do it for you?

jjjjjj wrote:

when everyone is talking about an investment, it is too late to make much money off of it. Gold has flown high on wild speculation, although it is still well below its inflation adjusted high from around 1980, but with the economy improving and organizations being willing to bail out various governments (or in Ireland's case, various European banks whose debts Ireland's government unwisely chose to guarantee) there will be no major collapse and gold will not turn out to be a good investment.

I THINK you are probably right, but so far gold has continued to climb even as the stocks market has continued. Gold AND stocks have gone up since March 2009, and that is not usually the case. Gold had been mired in no growth for 27 years (1980-2007)and then since 2007 has taken off. The MAJOR fear that was there at the end of 2007 and through 2008 is over and yet gold continues to do well.

Again, I'm not buying any, but as it is behaving differently than it has historically, I'm not about to tell anyone that they're doing the wrong thing either. It SEEMS that gold might be at a high, but I thought that at 900 and 1000 and 1200 too.

I bought the ETF GLD 2 years ago - it has since doubled. I accumulate a little more every month and will continue until gold tops out at ~$2000 / ounce (my estimate).

Gold paint wrote:

I bought the ETF GLD 2 years ago - it has since doubled. I accumulate a little more every month and will continue until gold tops out at ~$2000 / ounce (my estimate).

You've done well. I hope it continues to do well for you (seriously). For now, nothing with Gold would surprise me.

So are you saying keep holding on to the bag of 200 1968 and 1969 Krugerrands? They are the one ounce size still shiny and attractive too. Should I sell them right now or should I wait for better times to unload them. I paid about 8 grand for them-just a tad under I think. I gave some of the proofs to the grandkids for graduations so I guess I have about 190 left.

I thought about selling them when you or malmo said they were a worthless? poor? illthoughtout? investment back a couple of years ago but I never got around to it. Anyway they look good on the table. I put them in a little green Leprechans Pot for St. Paddy`s .

What does todays value look like against the same 8 grand going into a Dow tracking fund back then? Would I be ahead of those shares of stock or behind.

My friend said that to keep up with inflation my 8 grand of gold has to be worth about 50 grand in todays money. I think it is worth a little more so that is good isn't it. Plus there will always be a market no matter what happens in the stock exchange.

I think a great investment doubles your money in 8 years

a good investment would double in 12 and an average one doubles your money in 16.

Charlie Rose has a large part of a recent show on gold. They said that gold hasn't really gone up - it is our currency that has been losing value. This applies to any commodity, but gold is pretty easy to buy now with ETFs, and it is used as money. Since our dollar is going to probably even get weaker with quantivie easing and our other problems they seemed to think gold was going to continue to rise. They say China and other countries that had been investing in the US will begin to see gold as more appealing.

I always thought gold was not a good investment because it had risen so much and because it was advertised on sleazy radios ads. You can see the show on Hulu and maybe charlierose.com

Here's what I am saying:Gold and the way it is being bought right now is very puzzling to me, and I'm not arrogant enough to think I know how to give anyone any advice either pro or con with regard to gold now as the rules have apparently changed at least a little bit, so I am not going to do so. Keep it if you want. Sell if you want. Sorry I can't help.

steve22222 wrote:

Charlie Rose has a large part of a recent show on gold. They said that gold hasn't really gone up - it is our currency that has been losing value. This applies to any commodity, but gold is pretty easy to buy now with ETFs, and it is used as money. Since our dollar is going to probably even get weaker with quantivie easing and our other problems they seemed to think gold was going to continue to rise. They say China and other countries that had been investing in the US will begin to see gold as more appealing.

I always thought gold was not a good investment because it had risen so much and because it was advertised on sleazy radios ads. You can see the show on Hulu and maybe charlierose.com

The price of gold is affected by our currency losing value, but since 2007, gold has gone up WAAAAAAAY more than the currency has dropped...WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more. God was $612 an ounce in 2007. Today it is over $1,300 an ounce.