SIMULATED NCAA AT LARGE PREDICTIONS

9 GL teams, that's insane! Talk about depth.

MIAMI(OH) and not EMU???

EMU's on the auto list, dude.

[quote]RED DRAGON wrote:

THE FOLLOWING IS A SIMULATED ORDER OF SELECTION BASED ON NCAA REGIONAL POLLS 11-4-02. TEAMS ARE SELECTED WITH THE RULES STATED IN THE CHAMPIONSHIPS MANUAL.

AUTOS

COLO/NAU/ALA/BELMONT/NCSTATE/W&M/ARK/TEX/OKST/MINN/EMU/WISC/

STAN/ORE/PROV/IONA/GTOWN/VILL

1. BYU

2. WEBER

3. CMU

4. MTSTATE

5. CSU

6. OSU

7. MICH

8. IU

9. BUTL

10. MIAMI(OH) PUSHED IN BY MSU

11. MSU (OSU,W&M/DUKE,MTSTATE)

12. IOWA

13. ASU

I got the same teams in slightly different order.

BYU

WEBER

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

MT STATE

OHIO STATE

MICHIGAN

COL ST

INDIANA

BUTLER

MIAMI (OH)

MICH ST.

IOWA

ASU

When I did the figuring I noticed that the orde was in large part dependant on Belmont and William and Mary. And being in the same heat as these two teams at Pre-nats.

A lot of how things will shake out are determined by which teams get the Autos in the weaker regions.

what about Dartmouth.......i think they will get an at large in the north east.......

I GOT A DIFFERENT ORDER STILL....

BYU

WEBER

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

MT STATE

OHIO STATE

MICHIGAN

COL ST

INDIANA

BUTLER

MICH ST

MIAMI(OH)

IOWA

ASU

confused..

Miami does not have enough points. They must be pushed in by someone who does, like MSU.

Again. You guys do not understand the rule. The blocker rule ONLY applies to the 3 and 4 spot. Simply stated: it keeps a 3rd place (that doesn't have enough points to get in) team from blocking a 4th place team that has enough points to get in. Started 2 or 3 years ago when Oregon (finished 4th WITH enough points) got blocked bu Cal Poly (finished 3rd w/o enough points) and neither went. By the rationale most people use on the board... if a team were to get 11th but had enough points they would "push" ALL the teams ahead of 'em. That's just silly. And if the rule were not stated specifically for particular positions than there would be rule interpretations like that. Trust me I know the rule I have been to regional coaches meetings where there were LONG discussions about it.

The blocker rule now floats. It can only be used once per region. For example, take the Mt. Region--If the mt. region goes..cu,nau,byu, mt state, csu, weber. MSU does not have enough points to get in on their own....they will be pushed in by csu. The blocker rule floats...

Chugger, you are correct but you are also one year behind. The way you explained the rule and the reason for it did occur as you explained. Peen St and Oregon were blocked by St francis and Cal poly. And all four team, I believe deserved to go. They changed the rule again last year to allow the blocker to be pushed in even if the blocker is lower than 3rd.

If Oregon and Penn didn't beat the third place team who didn't have enough points-it means they weren't ready at the right time. Why should they get to go-because they chased points and spent a lot of money-all to get to a point where they didn't get the job done on the specified date? Third place should go, fourth should stay home and cry just like fifth and sixth place.

Sounds like you are in a shitty region.

Peak time,

I think you do not understand the blocker rule completely. In your example the third place team would not have gone to nationals either. The third place team would have gotten to go to nationals because of the fourth place team. The blocker rule would have helped both teams get to nationals. The blocker rule helps teams that didn't run well early, but peaked at the right time. It also helps good teams that have a slightly off-day. If a good team bombs and has two teams in front without enough points then the good team stays home or watches from the sidelines.

Chugger,

The rule does not apply to only the third place team. It can apply for the 8th team if it is the only time the blocker rule can be used. The blocker rule can only be used the first time it is necessary in a particular region. This year the blocker rule could come to play in 2-3 regions. The blocker rule could help get the Great Lakes up to 9 teams. The Mountain and South Central regions are the other two regions that the blocker rule will probably come into play.

Statman, I understand the rule, just don't agree with it. The rule should read that #3 goes and #4 stays. This way #4 pushes, but doesn't get rewarded by being able to go also. In this instance #3 is rewarded by getting to go because it beat a #4 team with points that tanked. There is no reason for #4 to be at the meet, they have already shown their hand at regionals, and it proved to be not good enough. I know coulda shoulda woulda been a nice rule, the fact now is that the current system rewards mediocrity. The whole idea of "oh we had a slightly 'off' day" is just idiotic. It's similar to #5 saying well if #4 had an off day, we had an off-off day-we should get to go also. I guess in short, I just want the deciding factor to be hard core racing done on a specified date-with no other factors blurring the picture. I beat you, I go, you lose, you stay home. Simple.

All Peaked Out for Nov. 16!!!

the rule works, cause both teams would deserve to go instead of someone from a weaker region

TIMMY TIMMY TIMMY!

Explain how a team deserves to go who can't get it up on game day.

I thought that the goal was to get the very best teams into the meet.

This year USU has a good team. If they run really well and place 3rd in the mountain region. They deserve to go!!! BUt BYU, CSU, WEBER, and MSU also deserve to go!

The question on the blocker rule is does it reward teams that peak in nov. or does it reward teams that peak in Sept-Oct.? That can only answered with time.

roberto,

Just a couple of thoughts,

Shouldn't the performance on the day of the meet be the deciding factor as who the "best" teams are?

If those Mountain Region teams don't beat a team that is percieved as being not as good, and said team beats them like a drum on Nov. 16, how can you honestly say they deserve to be in the big show on Nov. 25?

I think that as the rule stands now, with the points system et. al., the rule rewards teams that peaked between Sept. 28-Nov. 9. That is the period counted by the NCAA on the Regular-Season Team Score Reporting Form. I should know, I filled mine out and sent it in yesterday, yes I am a DI coach. Either way, I look forward to the fray this weekend.

Have a Nice Day!