I can't decide whether you're intentionally skewing the numbers you cite, or just thoughlessly regurgitating them after hearing them somewhere. My guess is the later. The most interesting thing about this comment is that you choose to start your measurement in 1933. At the bottom of the worst bear market in US stock market history. (more on this later).
My point is that when most have "given up" on equities is the best time to buy. Early 80's for example. We are so far from that extreme it's scary. 62% equity allocation (AAII survey I quoted earlier) is so far from that point, yet you were making comments about "so much cash and bonds on the sidelines". I'm just correcting your misstatements with facts, BROTHER.
Again, for anyone keeping track, notice that Flagpole cites big gains in years like 2003, 2009, and 2010 but fails to put those years in perspective by including the huge loss years that led to those gains.
Finally, you mention the "Stocks are dead in 1978". You know what led to that, right? Just 10 years of no gains with crazy-high inflation. So in real terms people in stocks were losing their asses. Warren Buffett, whom you seem to admire had returned much of his investors' money BEFORE that 10-year period hit. So, no, stocks aren't ALWAYS favored, BROTHER.
You missed my point again. You said house prices rose for 5 months, with a temporary pullback was good news and evidence that the DJIA should be near 12000. I'm saying that what you call a "pullback" might very well be a resumption of the downward trend. As Munger says: "Invert, always invert."
And I encouraged you to add a disclaimer to any foolish fun statements you make like DJIA 12000 so those easily influenced know you're just having fun.
No, the "B.S." comments I was referencing were those in this thread & "DJIA 12000". You know, the ones I quoted. But nice try.
Most of the above is solid advice. You should stick to that, and lay off trying to justify why the market is "not relecting reality"... because that is "B.S.", BROTHER.
However, even Susie-Orman-inspired advice like that can be dangerous if people don't put a little thought into their actions.
One example, people approaching retirement now should be very careful adding more bonds to their portfolio. Sometime in the next 15 years, bonds are going to get KILLED. We've had a 28-year bond bull market. When that reverses your cookie-cutter advice could decimate that part of their portfolio. You like Buffett right? Well, Buffett said so.
Anyway, hopefully the DJIA his 12,000, and then we'll get to hear how you were right, how you knew all along that 12,000 is a FAIR relection of the economy (how do you arrive at the NUMBER anyway?? Oh, nevermind, it was just fun), yadda yadda yadda.
All the best.