Here are the 10 fastest performers in history over 1500 meters at altitude (taken from all-time athletics.com). Now, we can’t just compare their altitude pr’s to their lifetime pr’s. For one thing, most athletes will probably run at altitude only a handful of times. Also, most fast altitude times are in Nairobi, often at the Kenyan Trials which have no rabbits, and often earlier in the season.
What I’ve done is search for all sub-3:37.99 altitude performances from these top 10 athletes, then every year that there is such a mark I’ve listed all other sub-3:37.99 performances that year as well. The marks are in chronological order, and the idea is to use the context of all their yearly marks to figure out how fast they were that year.
For example, Rotich ran 3:33.1A and 3:29.91 in 1998. Does that mean the conversion should be 3.2 seconds? It’s really impossible to say. After all, that 3:33.1A came on June 6 and the 3:29.91 came on September 5. And in addition to these two marks, Rotich also ran 3:37, 3:33 three times, 3:32, and 3:30 twice. If Nairobi to Zurich is a 3.2 second conversion then perhaps Sheffield to Zurich is a 7 second conversion!
In general, I think this shows that most years most athletes will not run their season best at altitude. However, there are some anamolies - Kiprop came close in 2007 and 2009, Choge came close in 2004 & 2005, Kiptanui’s lifetime pr is actually at altitude from 1992, Gathimba came close in 2009, and Keino and Kibet do not appear to be substantially faster at sea level than altitude.
What does this all mean? I think it means rules of thumb and conversions are garbage. Rotich was much worse at altitude, but take a guy like Keino, and his fastest race in 1971 (out of four sub-3:38’s) was the one at altitude! Or Kibet’s 3:35.5A in 1992 fits in nicely with his two 3:37’s, five 3:36’s, and three other 3:35’s that year. You think that guy deserves a conversion? Really?
Take a look at these marks and judge for yourself:
Kiprop
2726 3:35.81 Asbel Kiprop Athínai 02.07.2007
2369 3:35.5A Asbel Kiprop Nairobi 28.07.2007
2143 3:35.24 Asbel Kiprop Osaka 29.08.2007
3340 3:36.3A Asbel Kiprop Nairobi 07.06.2008
3688 3:36.53A Asbel Kiprop Nairobi 04.07.2008
295 3:31.64 Asbel Kiprop Roma 11.07.2008
599 3:32.78 Asbel Kiprop Saint-Denis 18.07.2008
4478 3:37.04 Asbel Kiprop Beijing 17.08.2008
742 3:33.11 Asbel Kiprop Beijing 19.08.2008
3906 3:36.68 Asbel Kiprop Zürich 29.08.2008
4130 3:36.82 Asbel Kiprop Bruxelles 05.09.2008
6124 3:37.93 Asbel Kiprop Stuttgart 14.09.2008
1515 3:34.45 Asbel Kiprop Hengelo 01.06.2009
1499 3:34.43+ Asbel Kiprop Eugene 07.06.2009
220 3:31.20 Asbel Kiprop Roma 10.07.2009
616 3:32.82A Asbel Kiprop Nairobi 25.07.2009
3278 3:36.24 Asbel Kiprop Berlin 17.08.2009
3597 3:36.47 Asbel Kiprop Berlin 19.08.2009
1255 3:34.09 Asbel Kiprop Zürich 28.08.2009
437 3:32.22 Asbel Kiprop Shanghai 23.05.2010
1014 3:33.69A Asbel Kiprop Nairobi 26.06.2010
2202 3:35.30+ Asbel Kiprop Eugene 03.07.2010
838 3:33.34 Asbel Kiprop Gateshead 10.07.2010
3180 3:36.19A Asbel Kiprop Nairobi 01.08.2010
427 3:32.18 Asbel Kiprop Bruxelles 27.08.2010
320 3:31.78 Asbel Kiprop Rieti 29.08.2010
Rotich
3514 3:36.41 Laban Rotich Bellville 27.03.1996
4403 3:37.0A Laban Rotich Nairobi 24.04.1996
4891 3:37.3A Laban Rotich Nairobi 17.05.1996
1020 3:33.70 Laban Rotich Moskva 07.06.1996
3932 3:36.7A Laban Rotich Nairobi 27.06.1996
365 3:32.00 Laban Rotich Stockholm 08.07.1996
543 3:32.62 Laban Rotich Nice 10.07.1996
2812 3:35.88 Laban Rotich Atlanta 29.07.1996
1041 3:33.73 Laban Rotich Atlanta 01.08.1996
5056 3:37.39 Laban Rotich Atlanta 03.08.1996
701 3:33.01 Laban Rotich Zürich 14.08.1996
2120 3:35.21 Laban Rotich Köln 16.08.1996
1283 3:34.12 Laban Rotich Bruxelles 23.08.1996
193 3:31.06 Laban Rotich Rieti 01.09.1996
106 3:30.41 Laban Rotich Rehlingen 19.05.1997
5262 3:37.5+ Laban Rotich Eugene 25.05.1997
654 3:32.91 Laban Rotich Hengelo 31.05.1997
2097 3:35.19 Laban Rotich Saint-Denis 02.06.1997
2703 3:35.8A Laban Rotich Nairobi 07.06.1997
2935 3:36.0A Laban Rotich Nairobi 28.06.1997
506 3:32.51+ Laban Rotich Oslo 04.07.1997
85 3:30.13 Laban Rotich Stockholm 07.07.1997
849 3:33.36 Laban Rotich Monaco 16.08.1997
142 3:30.77 Laban Rotich Bruxelles 22.08.1997
1987 3:35.05+ Laban Rotich Berlin 26.08.1997
630 3:32.85 Laban Rotich Rieti 03.09.1997
738 3:33.1A Laban Rotich Nairobi 06.06.1998
403 3:32.12 Laban Rotich Oslo 09.07.1998
169 3:30.94 Laban Rotich Roma 14.07.1998
4463 3:37.03+ Laban Rotich Sheffield 02.08.1998
80 3:30.06 Laban Rotich Monaco 08.08.1998
71 3:29.91 Laban Rotich Zürich 12.08.1998
732 3:33.08 Laban Rotich Bruxelles 28.08.1998
1080 3:33.81 Laban Rotich Berlin 01.09.1998
714 3:33.04 Laban Rotich Moskva 05.09.1998
Kibowen
2202 3:35.3A John Kibowen Nairobi 09.05.1997
3484 3:36.4A John Kibowen Nairobi 07.06.1997
799 3:33.27 John Kibowen Helsinki 18.06.1997
3647 3:36.5A John Kibowen Nairobi 28.06.1997
742 3:33.11+ John Kibowen Oslo 04.07.1997
229 3:31.24 John Kibowen Stockholm 07.07.1997
108 3:30.44 John Kibowen Nice 16.07.1997
417 3:32.15 John Kibowen Zürich 13.08.1997
343 3:31.94 John Kibowen Monaco 16.08.1997
209 3:31.15 John Kibowen Bruxelles 22.08.1997
745 3:33.12 John Kibowen Köln 24.08.1997
1180 3:33.99 John Kibowen Ad-Dawhah 07.05.1998
812 3:33.3A John Kibowen Nairobi 06.06.1998
4722 3:37.20A John Kibowen Nairobi 04.07.1998
195 3:31.08 John Kibowen Roma 14.07.1998
141 3:30.76 John Kibowen Stuttgart 19.07.1998
102 3:30.36 John Kibowen Monaco 08.08.1998
87 3:30.18 John Kibowen Zürich 12.08.1998
2991 3:36.04 John Kibowen Lausanne 25.08.1998
4031 3:36.76 John Kibowen Berlin 01.09.1998
984 3:33.64 John Kibowen Moskva 05.09.1998
Keitany
2143 3:35.24 Haron Keitany Dessau 30.05.2008
1688 3:34.68+ Haron Keitany Oslo 06.06.2008
5816 3:37.78A Haron Keitany Nairobi 04.07.2008
3157 3:36.17 Haron Keitany Heusden-Zolder 20.07.2008
385 3:32.06 Haron Keitany Zürich 29.08.2008
974 3:33.62 Haron Keitany Lausanne 02.09.2008
4074 3:36.80 Haron Keitany Bruxelles 05.09.2008
6108 3:37.92 Haron Keitany Stuttgart 14.09.2008
159 3:30.90 Haron Keitany Ad-Dawhah 08.05.2009
1434 3:34.34+ Haron Keitany Eugene 07.06.2009
88 3:30.20 Haron Keitany Berlin 14.06.2009
2091 3:35.18+ Haron Keitany Ostrava 17.06.2009
950 3:33.59A Haron Keitany Nairobi 25.07.2009
4630 3:37.13 Haron Keitany Berlin 15.08.2009
Choge
4722 3:37.2A Augustine Choge Nairobi 15.05.2004
5656 3:37.7A Augustine Choge Kampala 30.05.2004
3853 3:36.64 Augustine Choge Heusden-Zolder 31.07.2004
1783 3:34.8A Augustine Choge Nairobi 07.05.2005
1180 3:33.99 Augustine Choge Sevilla 04.06.2005
275 3:31.57 Augustine Choge Berlin 01.06.2008
1515 3:34.45+ Augustine Choge Oslo 06.06.2008
3514 3:36.41A Augustine Choge Nairobi 04.07.2008
475 3:32.40 Augustine Choge Saint-Denis 18.07.2008
2344 3:35.47 Augustine Choge Beijing 15.08.2008
5350 3:37.54 Augustine Choge Beijing 17.08.2008
2369 3:35.50 Augustine Choge Beijing 19.08.2008
155 3:30.88 Augustine Choge Ad-Dawhah 08.05.2009
52 3:29.47 Augustine Choge Berlin 14.06.2009
1313 3:34.16+ Augustine Choge Oslo 03.07.2009
1104 3:33.86A Augustine Choge Nairobi 25.07.2009
3541 3:36.43 Augustine Choge Berlin 17.08.2009
3688 3:36.53 Augustine Choge Berlin 19.08.2009
862 3:33.38 Augustine Choge Zürich 28.08.2009
2342 3:35.46 Augustine Choge Thessaloníki 13.09.2009
Kiptanui
2703 3:35.8A Moses Kiptanui Nairobi 11.05.1991
6124 3:37.93 Moses Kiptanui Sevilla 30.05.1991
2279 3:35.40 Moses Kiptanui Monaco 03.08.1991
2310 3:35.42 Moses Kiptanui Rieti 06.09.1991
5851 3:37.8A Moses Kiptanui Nairobi 23.05.1992
3932 3:36.7A Moses Kiptanui Nairobi 23.05.1992
1191 3:34.0A Moses Kiptanui Nairobi 13.06.1992
5598 3:37.67A Moses Kiptanui Nairobi 27.05.1995
1805 3:34.82 Moses Kiptanui London 07.07.1995
Kiplagat
5851 3:37.8A Silas Kiplagat Nairobi 26.06.2010
1386 3:34.28A Silas Kiplagat Nairobi 26.06.2010
44 3:29.27 Silas Kiplagat Monaco 22.07.2010
4011 3:36.74A Silas Kiplagat Nairobi 01.08.2010
122 3:30.61 Silas Kiplagat Berlin 22.08.2010
2369 3:35.50 Silas Kiplagat Villeneuve d'Ascq 24.08.2010
356 3:31.97 Silas Kiplagat Rieti 29.08.2010
Gathimba
978 3:33.63 Gideon Gathimba Rabat 14.06.2008
6223 3:37.98A Gideon Gathimba Nairobi 04.07.2008
5168 3:37.44 Gideon Gathimba Tangiers 13.07.2008
2556 3:35.68 Gideon Gathimba Barcelona 19.07.2008
1041 3:33.73 Gideon Gathimba Monaco 29.07.2008
2279 3:35.40 Gideon Gathimba Zürich 29.08.2008
1201 3:34.01 Gideon Gathimba Lausanne 02.09.2008
1645 3:34.61 Gideon Gathimba Rieti 07.09.2008
4500 3:37.05 Gideon Gathimba Zagreb 09.09.2008
1171 3:33.97 Gideon Gathimba Ad-Dawhah 08.05.2009
4450 3:37.02 Gideon Gathimba Hengelo 01.06.2009
1724 3:34.72 Gideon Gathimba Thessaloníki 10.06.2009
1273 3:34.11 Gideon Gathimba Berlin 14.06.2009
4347 3:36.97+ Gideon Gathimba Ostrava 17.06.2009
4130 3:36.82 Gideon Gathimba Roma 10.07.2009
1817 3:34.83A Gideon Gathimba Nairobi 25.07.2009
3615 3:36.48 Gideon Gathimba Rieti 06.09.2009
3432 3:36.36 Gideon Gathimba Thessaloníki 13.09.2009
Keino
1877 3:34.91A Kipchoge Keino Ciudad de México 20.10.1968
4891 3:37.3A Kipchoge Keino South Lake Tahoe 12.09.1969
4249 3:36.9 Kipchoge Keino Århus 23.06.1971
5262 3:37.5 Kipchoge Keino Durham 17.07.1971
4074 3:36.8A Kipchoge Keino Nairobi 15.08.1971
4722 3:37.2 Kipchoge Keino München 05.09.1971
Kibet
4191 3:36.86 David Kibet Sevilla 30.05.1991
1962 3:35.02 David Kibet Getxo 29.06.1991
4857 3:37.28 David Kibet Luzern 06.07.1991
6162 3:37.95 David Kibet London 12.07.1991
5452 3:37.6A David Kibet Nairobi 27.07.1991
2301 3:35.41 David Kibet Malmö 05.08.1991
2980 3:36.03 David Kibet Tokyo 01.09.1991
2006 3:35.08 David Kibet Rieti 06.09.1991
3615 3:36.48 David Kibet Köln 08.09.1991
5971 3:37.85 David Kibet Dakar 18.04.1992
5262 3:37.5A David Kibet Nairobi 23.05.1992
2369 3:35.5A David Kibet Nairobi 13.06.1992
3033 3:36.08 David Kibet Edinburgh 19.06.1992
3054 3:36.1A David Kibet Nairobi 01.07.1992
4276 3:36.92 David Kibet London 10.07.1992
3384 3:36.32 David Kibet Barcelona 03.08.1992
2736 3:35.82 David Kibet Barcelona 06.08.1992
2681 3:35.78 David Kibet Köln 16.08.1992
2833 3:35.90 David Kibet Bruxelles 28.08.1992
3571 3:36.45 David Kibet Bologna 09.09.1992
2301 3:35.41 David Kibet Roma 05.06.1996
2833 3:35.90 David Kibet Moskva 07.06.1996
4722 3:37.2A David Kibet Nairobi 27.06.1996
5418 3:37.58+ David Kibet Oslo 05.07.1996
2310 3:35.42 David Kibet Lappeenranta 14.07.1996
2390 3:35.51 David Kibet Zürich 14.08.1996
1914 3:34.96 David Kibet Rieti 01.09.1996