Which American males have a shot at an Olympic medal (800m - Marathon) in 2012 and how many medals total will US get?

I would add Leo Manzano to the list - he runs hot and cold, but put him in a final and he will run for the win. In a race with the right strategy he could medal.

He made the WC final at 26 - 29 is getting a little old but not too old.

runners who have a chance at a respectable finish:

Solinsky in the 10k

Ritz/Hall in the 'thon

Webb/Wheating in the 1500

Lagat isnt American.

Tyrone Wheatley is coming out of retirement to run the 1500? Granted, he was a hell of a track runner in his day, but the 1500 seems a little long for him...

Can't say with much accuracy what anyone's form will look like two years from now. This is a moot topic.

Hall is the only one I would expect to medal. Meb and Lagat may get one and then retire on it as a way out as legends in American distance running. The rest would have to keep doping as usual and a miracle would have to happen such as Africa boycotting the Olympics and IAAF WCs or war in Eth & Ken.

aint it time we discovered a shemale to boost our medal hopes?

good chances

Lagat- i would hardly say that the second fastest guy ever who has won an world championship in both 15 and 5 and has several OLY medals already is remote chance. He has a really good chance at the 5k if he is still healthy and running well in 2012.

Webb- was the fastest 1500m runner in the world and favored to win a world championship only 3 years ago. He is now training with one of the best coachs anyone in america is training with. I would say he still has the talet remember he has run a faster time than Lagat in the mile and Lagat has a WC.

Hall-Has placed in the top three at some major marathons and his best races are still in front of him. We all know that the oly marathon is usually weaker than a major marathon like NY or BOS. If Meb can get a silver it is totally possible for hall to get a medal.

really decent chances

Ritz, Sol, and Teg- have all run in the 12:50's and anyone who is in that range has a decent chance at medaling in the olympics. I know the kenyans have like 20 in that range but remember they only get to send 3 and everyone has their off days. Sol has also run in the 26's which puts him in the really decent chance catagory for the 10k as well.

Who knows yet

Wheating, andrews, Jager, Fernandez they show really good potential we will have to see what develops over the couple years. Keep in mind a few months ago no on in their right mind would have said Sol will go sub 27. Who knows what will happen next year for any of these guys.

The most important factor in the next olympics is the wave of american distance running that we are all wittnessing. THis is not just one time here or there its several people running really good times. and just like a kenyan who sees his tribesman run and fast believe he can run fast because of it americans are staring to believe that they can everytime they see another american do it. IF our progress contiunes we should have some really good chances at medals next time around.

Maybe Hall and Lagat. Meb is a creaky old guy ready to join the coaching staff back at UCLA. The others don't have a Chinaman's Chance in Hell.

ehyo wrote:

Lagat isnt American.

Naturalization = American

Given the depth that the Kenyans and Ethiopians have it will be difficult for ANY American male to medal at 800m or up. That said, we have a bunch of guys who have a shot at it. Maybe 1 will pan out, but no what to know which until race day.

Webb: If he brings his 3:46/1:43 game he has a very good shot at a medal. Key word is "if."

Hall: Probably the guy I'd most like to see medal. With only 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians in the field he has a better shot at winning an Oly medal than hitting the podium in Chicago.

Symmonds: A tactically smart race and a little better overall fitness could get him there.

Ritz: Slim shot in the 5 or 10. If he can bring his 12:56 speed to the marathon effectively he may be our best hope.

Solinsky: On a huge upswing at the moment. Just one notch away from having as good a shot as anyone other than Kenny B at a 5 or 10 medal.

Lagat: A medal favorite in the 15 and 5 if age doesn't catch up to him.

The young guys (Wheating etc...): Who knows??

Lagat and Meb are the only male Americans who have major distance medals. Hall is very consistent and has an excellent chance in the marathon. The remaining don't have much hope at all.

Quoted cuz its a good post.

You people who say Lagat has a medal shot in 1500 are nuts, he's loosing speed like a leaky balloon looses air. His 2 1500's this year have looked awful. This also makes me doubt his ability to close in the 5k.

Wheating seems to stack up up well against Willis time-wise, and his closing speed puts him in the perfect position to win a medal (in the 1500)IMO.

Symmonds also has a good shot, partially because of his closing speed, partially because of the unpredictability of the 800.

Ritz and Hall in the marathon is a pipe dream, they were in over their over there heads in Bejing and I don't see that changing. Same with Solinsky in the 10k, though he has a better chance that these two.

Ryan is the only hope at this point on the international stage. Lagat and Meb may squeak out one more medal to finish out their careers. Recall also that all but one US distance major medals in recent years are from California and Arizona based runners.

Solinsky just needs to be able to kick with the big guns which sucks because you hate to see the 10k turn into a 400m race, especially with Bekele in it.

I think Symmonds has a really good chance at a medal. He's a very smart championship racer. He was right there with 100m to go at worlds last year running from the front. If he can just hang onto the lead pack and make one decisive move, he'll medal. Hopefully Rudisha and Kaki don't learn to run tactically anytime soon though.

America is NOT a middle distance or distance running phenom and will not win ANY medals in ANY of the distance running events for men or women in 2012 UNLESS it can persuade an Ethiopian or Kenyan runner to switch colors and represent the US. Lagat will win no medals. Flanagan will win no medals. You heard it here first.

America's best bet for medals, likely runner up medals, is in the sprint events 100M-400M. That is just the reality of the matter as it stands now, so please no whining.

What you say is very long shot. If Mt Kilamanjaro blows up and spews ash over the Rift Valley and the Nile overflows and inundates Ethiopia then maybe those other than Hall/Meb/Bernard would have a miniscule chance at medalling.

nil-nil

A better question this far out is

Who would you expect to be on the USA 2012 Team

hmmmm... Ronny Ash, Walter Dix, Jeshua Anderson, Allyson Felix, Lashinda Demus should medal. Other than that ask Allah.

Dan Huling in the steeple is the best chance at a medal.