Bernard Lagat may try 5000/10000m double in 2012...discussion and predictions

Your about as juvenile as they come with your uncalled for attitude. What happened to the ability to simply disagree with someone without the name calling like you did in your initial post. Your definitely someone I won't waste my time responding to ever again...if you think I'm so ignorant why waste your time finding my threads and commenting on them. I'll come out and say it because you want to stir up anything so you continually go to POPULAR threads or posters that get alot of responses. Just ignore all my threads Chet and Ventolin- PLEASE!

You should try really knowing the sports there has been several cases where athletes set personal best at age 35-39 in the last several years in their main events. Will it happen with Bernard, Kenenisa, or Geb most likely not but to say it don't and can't is STUPID- when elite established athletes are doing it every year!

VIPAM wrote:

IN ALL REALITY Bernard, Kenenisa, or X could be a freak of nature and not hit their prime til 38 or 39.

OK, I should not insult your intelligence. I will simply point out that Kenenisa peaked at ages 22-23 and has fallen off slightly. Bernard peaked at age 26, running 3:26.43 and he has been able to sustain excellence at a somewhat lower level for quite some time...You really believe that Kenenisa's prime might be 10 or 11 years from now, in 2020 or 2021? OK, well.....

3:26.34 of course...

you are clearly not familiar with the era concerned

the likes of viren/rono had serious consideration as the greatest distance runners in history ( along with likes of zatopek/kuts/nurmi )

i remember no one bandying that about ingrid

she took a piss-weak 30'59wr to 30'13 in 1 fell swoop - the year prior, zola had run 14'48wr which implied if she'd been as good at 10k wouda gone ~ (x2) + 1'00 -> 30'36

so the current 10k wr of ingrid's at 30'59 was weak compared to zola's 5k wr

30'13 was a good improvement

that brought it to some semblance of respectability but it was no way superior to 27'13 ( or even low 27'20s ) for men

also, i have no way implied the women's improvement curve has been linear - from '70's, there was a sharp surge in improvement in '80s, levelled of a bit into '90s ( or improved again if you accept chinese times ) & again a surge in general standards ( but no new 10k wr ) in '00s - as opposed to men who's middle distance times have generally stagnated in '00s

it's been stop & start

Viren/Rono were obviously not the best runners in history as their times have been far surpassed. My only point is that it is not impossible to think that a woman could have turned in a time equal to or better than their times, if you have a reliable way to convert women's times to men's times, which we just don't know.

You're doing this all along your scale of "respectability" according to what you think the women's WRs should be. My point is, you don't know. It doesn't matter what the 5k WR was because 1) You don't know what Zola Budd could have run for a 10k (you make this up according to your bogus scheme as well) and 2) you don't know which record is more "respectable" because there's nothing better than them to compare it to. So, it's very possible that 27 flat is closer to 30'20, like one poster said. No bogus conversions or comparisons you make have been valid, and none are likely to be.

err...

i'm talking contemporaneously

after viren's 4 golds, he WAS regarded as being close to if not the goat

then came rono - stunning 4 wrs in 1 season - 3 at medal distances - another goat contender

same applied decades before to zatopek & all 3 golds one games

yes

if she'd run ~29'45 back then, she wouda been

for 30y+ the yardstick for sprints has been 10.00/11.00 & 20.00/22.00 - & lots of these races run every year - most of any events

you have your ~10% difference there as baseline

for increasing race distance it will be around this level/slightly less than 10% as power becomes less of a factor & endurance predominates & women's endurance capabilities are acknowledged as similar to men

however, i have a very good idea what it is, something clearly you don't

nonsense

i'm using the generally accepted conversion for 5k to 10k which is

10k = 2*5k + 1'00

try it for ingrid's 30'13 & see what it implies for her 5k & what was her actual 5kwr

err...

no

we have 50y of stats to work with

it's how you use them

for the casual observer only

truely clueless...

Great article and I look forward to the rest of Bernard's season and 2011. If he says he's trying for a time of 3:30-3:31 this season, American Record in the 3000m, and a track 10000m in 26:40 I believe he is capable of such performances. Don't know how posters are saying he is washed up when so far in 2010 he has:

indoor 5000m AR

won his unprecedented 8th Wanamaker Mile

destroyed the competition to win World 3000m GOLD

outdoor 5000m AR

ANY other American would throw away the rest of their season if they could have accomplished what Bernard has so far in 2010. They guy is very intelligent and knows what he is capable of better than anyone. So if he says 26:40, I say 26:44.18 (debut) because he knows what he is capable of in the 10000m!