Predictions for NCAAs

800: wheating then maybe andrews or ryan foster from PSU

1500: gonna be different and say craig miller from wisconsin then wheating/centro/acosta you know that oregon crew

steeple: has kinda been a snoozefest this year don't care who wins

5000: if chelanga runs it, he wins. otherwise, david mcneill. want to see chris derrick medal. or elliot heath or jake reilly. i bet if colby lowe could medal if everything falls together for him.

10k: chelanga no contest. i hear that Jon Grey from william and mary is pretty good?

800 - Wheating comes up clutch.

1500 - Emmanuel 1st, Centro 2nd, Wheating 3rd.

5k - Chelenga, with McNeill creeping up in the last bit. Leeder does well.

10k - Chelenga obliterates the field effortlessly. Mo Ahmed does well for a freshman.

Steeple - Matt Hughes, the man with the dirty stache wins it.

nogutsnoglory wrote:

800 - Wheating comes up clutch.

1500 - Emmanuel 1st, Centro 2nd, Wheating 3rd.

5k - Chelenga, with McNeill creeping up in the last bit. Leeder does well.

10k - Chelenga obliterates the field effortlessly. Mo Ahmed does well for a freshman.

Steeple - Matt Hughes, the man with the dirty stache wins it.

Wow, I'm surprised several are picking Wheating to get beat handily in the 1500. Hasn't he run the 2 fastest marks this season? The fastest and most recent was precisely after an 800-1500-800 in the days before no? And he looked incredibly good doing it over Emmanuel for the 2nd time this season. He ran 1:46 the day before apparently also looking quite good.

To me Wheating has at least 3:36 in him right now even with the double and only Centro is a threat to beat that.

My prediction for the 1500 is Lee goes desperately like he will have to with 400-500 out and Centro and Acosta cover with Wheating just off of them. Centro goes by on the back strech and it'll be between he and Wheating down the homestrech with Acosta applying for the sweep.

This could be the stuff of legend for the Duck fans.

I agree with your other picks. 800 is going to be another exciting race.

800: Wheating over Andrews. Done.

1500: No way Emmanuel wins the 1500. He has been handled easily every single race this outdoor season. NCAAs will be no different. Either Centro or Wheating gets it, with a whole slew of runners vying for third, including Emmanuel, Acosta, Bolas, and Miller.

5000: McNeill and Chelanga down to the wire, then Bumbi, then Derrick, then Bethke. Bumbi looked strong closing on Chelanga at regionals. He's raced so little, that - especially coming off of mono - he's flying under the radar. There's no telling how good of shape he's in.

10000: Are people seriously saying Barnicle? Seriously? Chelanga is going to blow this shit open.

Agreed. Also should add my darkhorse pick in the 5K is Derrick. Chelanga should be tired and is NOT a great kicker. McNeil has a great shot but if he's flat or hit his peak early Derrick should be primed for the upset.

800M Wheating, Andrews

1500M Centrowitz,

5K Chelanga

Steeple Who cares

10K Derrick, Heath, Chelanga

100m - Demps

200m - C. Mitchell

400m - James

800m - Andrews

1500m - Wheating

5000m - McNeil

10000m - Chelanga

110h - Ash

400h - Anderson

4x100m - Florida

4x400m - Texas A&M

800=Jock-Primm-Jones or any configuration the three there-of

1500= Emmanual-Wheating-Matusak

Steeple= Knight- Sodaro

Looking at all of the predictions, which I love the variety of predictions that people are giving, what has been striking me the most is how people are saying Centrowitz could win the 1500m. Given what Wheating has to do with both the 1500m and the 800m, I would say if Wheating wins both titles, it would make up for a lot if not all the disappointments he had while at Oregon, from losing in the 800m in indoors and outdoors by.01 to failing at Penn Relays in the 4x8 to whatever else (all in my opinion).

The race I’m most interested in is the 1500m. If Wheating wins, which I have a feeling he could, that would be sweet and probably would be the start of making him into the next great US miler (which I believe Runner’s World or something like that said he would be, but who knows), but I’ll still put money down that Lee Emanuel will challenge since he’s fresh and being a 2x indoor champ, pretty sure he would love to have an outdoor title. But Centrowitz, I put him as my dark horse.

Chelanga ran 27:08 a month ago. If he's able to cruise to the win in 28-mid, he should be pretty fresh for the 5K. He does have the best PR of the field (13:19), and should try to power away mid-race to get clear of McNeil's kick. Like at Regionals Bumbi closed in 2:01, but Chelanga was already too far ahead.

Wheating has raced the 1500 so little...yet he's run 3:37 twice this season. Looks like Emmanuel is running this year like last year: dominant in the indoor mile then a little past his peak for the outdoor championship. Centro is the darkhorse - he ran 3:57/3:36.xx a year ago but this season he's just been winning, not throwing down crazy times. All these races will be really good.

Everyone is picking Phoebe Wright to win the 800.

100. 1. Demps

400. 1. Kirani James

800: 1. Evans 2. Jock 3. Andrews. 4. Wheating

1500: 1. Centrowitz. 2. Wheating

5000 & 10,000: Chelanga.

Steeple. Cabral.

400 H: Johnny Dutch

Chris doesn't have the strongest kick out of the people who qualified, but if the race goes out fast...that'd be great for him. I really think he is a top 3 runner at nats.

I want to see an american win the 10k!

Through the Glass wrote:

Looking at all of the predictions, which I love the variety of predictions that people are giving, what has been striking me the most is how people are saying Centrowitz could win the 1500m.

But Centrowitz, I put him as my dark horse.

Centrowitz won every 1500 he raced last year up to his stress fracture at NCAA's. That includes a 3:36 over Lee, Heath, Miller etc. at Cardinal invite and convincing victories at Pac-10's and regionals last year again over a handful of sub 3:40 guys including Rupp and Wheating at Pac-10's. Outside of Wheating who was doubling at Pac-10's and seemed to have waited too long to start his kick in the 1500, Centro seemed to absolutely control the fields.

He has looked the same way this outdoor season with the same kind of results, but yet he has not matched up against Wheating. However Fleet and Acosta were 2nd and 4th at NCAA's indoor and Centro has easily handled them on a few occassions.

Centro is no darkhorse, it'll be between he and Wheating to win it. Lee will run well and make a bid, but those two guys will overcome it.

There’s no hiding the success Centrowitz has had and what he has done this season. My flaw in picking him as my dark horse is that I haven’t seen the races he’s been in thus not seeing what he’s ran or who he’s beat. I wouldn’t be surprised if he and Wheating goes 1-2, not surprised whatsoever. For me picking Lee Emanuel over Centrowitz is based on guts. I just have a feeling Lee has a lot more to lose since he’s a senior and this is his last chance at an outdoor title with him having 2 indoor titles. If I look into next season and predict who’ll win, I would say Centrowitz, but that could be a gutsy call because of the possibility of Fleet rebounding, German Fernandez coming back and being healthy, or someone stepping up.

I will go on to add that a big surprise/disappointment was seeing Mac Fleet not making it. Going from school record holder in the indoor mile and finished 2nd at indoors to being left behind at regionals, kind of makes me wonder what went wrong with him.

on the women's side i think people are sleeping on brie felnagle in the 5k...girl's got some speed and is great at the long distances...sub 4:10 1500 pr (i think 4:07?) and former ncaa 1500 champ, 9:00 3k, looked real strong in both her 5k's this season...she's been off her game in the 15 but just the same if the 5k is tactical and shes around with a lap to go, my money's on the hot blonde

fghrunner wrote:

on the women's side i think people are sleeping on brie felnagle in the 5k...girl's got some speed and is great at the long distances...sub 4:10 1500 pr (i think 4:07?) and former ncaa 1500 champ, 9:00 3k, looked real strong in both her 5k's this season...she's been off her game in the 15 but just the same if the 5k is tactical and shes around with a lap to go, my money's on the hot blonde

dont think 5k will be tactical. Biz and koll are gonna smoke it from the start. Could be a good race. Brie's 5k time this year is about half a min slower than Biz's and almost a minute slower than kolls, Biz has the best shot at beating koll if she prs ... the problem is koll has the 3 fastest college outdoor 5ks this year including 15:17, a 15:28 second half split on her 10k record, and a 15:22 right after winning her conference 10k a couple of weeks ago. She beat Biz by a 100 meters here at Payton Jordan.

Blood might have had a shot if she had stuck with the 5k this year.. now she is doubling and I think screwing up her chances...

Perspectivation wrote:

Agreed. Also should add my darkhorse pick in the 5K is Derrick. Chelanga should be tired and is NOT a great kicker. McNeil has a great shot but if he's flat or hit his peak early Derrick should be primed for the upset.

I saw Chelanga outkick the field in a mile this year.

Shampow wrote:

It's been constantly rainy in Oregon recently so I'll take Oregon for the team titles. Southerners seem to be really uneasy running in the rain for some reason.

its been raining the past 2 weeks in florida. they'll be ready

800- Wheating, Andrews close behind

1500-Centro followed by Wheating

5k-Derrick ftw then Chelenga and Mcneil

10k-Chelenga wins easy, Jon Grey 2nd