Yo Average joe,
I know you never asked for my opinion, but here it is anyway : )
The way you have put up those numbers for everything from 5k to marathon seems to give the impression that you think that you have to be able to do one of them before you can do the others.
This is not so.
A lot can depend on your particular "genetic" strengths (to call them that). I have coached runners to sub-2.40 marathons who will never run 16.00 for 5k, nor break 33.00 for 10k.
So I feel you might be painting the picture worse here than it really needs to be, and putting yourself off in the process. Making it seem more difficult than it might be.
You might have been a HS runner who could break 4.10 for 1500m, in which case you might find the training for 16.00-5k suitable, or even easy. Yet never manage to break 2.40 for the marathon.
On the other hand, you might be someone who could just about run 4.30/1500m (after some serious training) and now manage to run a 2.40 and never be able to break 16.00/5k.
You get my point? You have to play to your strengths.
Let's look at one guy I am now "coaching". An ordinary guy, accountant, busy lifestyle, getting married in a year etc...
Came to me with a 2.54 marathon PR from 3 years ago. Had tried many times to break it and couldn't.
After 6 months with me he ran 2.45. Dead easy, even splits the whole way. We are now aiming for sub-2.40 by this Nov or next Feb (2 races he has planned, depending on how the training goes).
To my certain knowledge, this guy has never broken 17.00/5k on the track. (In fact, he may only have run one or two in his life). Okay, it's no big deal and we're not training for it, but I bet that even if we did he would never manage sub-16.00.
In a recent road 10k (post 2.45 marathon) he ran 36.00, and has a recent PR of 35.48 on a hilly course on a hot Med summer evening (30degC).
Hard to compare these things: hilly hot 10ks, and cool flat marathons.
With serious work, we could probably get his road PR down to say 35.00 and his track PR to maybe maybe 34.30 but that would be about it.
And yet I'm pretty sure he'll break 2.40 by next Spring. which is his target, he couldn't care what he runs at 5k.
But to do that his PRs only need to be are something like:
5k - 16.30
10.k - 34.30 (track) 35.00 (road)
HM - 1.15 or maybe just under
M - sub-2.40
Notice that according to any points system these are not equivalent performances by any means. What they do show is that this runner gets better the longer the distance (has no zip, never was a stud in school, but bags of endurance ? which can be trained).
Such figures are, to me, more "normal", more "average", than some guy who is equally good across the board.
Which is why you have to take these "equations" or "formulae" with a big pinch of salt.
Doesn't look so frightening, does it? All perfectly achievable by your average ordinary sort of guy.
This guy will peak at 80-90mpw in his build-up (say 3 times a week of doubles, the rest singles).
The crucial thing is the training pace. He is actually training slower now per mile than he was for his 2.54 old PR. And loving every minute of it. He's now got his father out training and into that 36/10k he ran (his father managed 54-something).
It is actually a joy to watch this guy train because you can see him laughing when he checks his mile splits because he cannot believe he is running so "fast" (for him?it's all relative) so easily.
So yeah, if you can hit the sort of times I mention (and yet not achieve yours), then with the right training you could run sub-2.40.
So now you have no excuse : )
(I'm going abroad tomorrow, so just in case there are any questions on points I made above, give me until my return next Wed to answer. If there are, and you can keep this thread on page 1, I'd appreciate it.)
Hadd