If both had perfect races (which they won't) I wouldn't be shocked if Bernard Lagat ran 12:49 and Chris Solinsky 12:52. The problem is very few athletes ever have perfect races in NEAR perfect conditions but Chris Solinsky did in the 10000m.
sol's race was far from perfect
his 1'56 finish showed the pace to 9200m had been too slow for him & he had so much energy left for last 2 laps
it's a pity because consensus here seems to be he may never get another 10k like that in his career & he didn't quite get the right race pace & he had 26'50 in him
the oslo 5k will go at more like <12'45 pace, because big choge in 12'51 at 95F must be in pb shape & currently it's 12'46
i doubt he wants to shave just 1s off that - he wants a big chunk & that may mean even asking for 12'40 pace at 3k - 7'36
sol & bernie better not follow that or they will die a horrible death
the best race strategy for the organisers is to have staggered wabbits for different pace goals - one at 7'36 for 12'40 attempt & another at 7'42 for 12'50 which bernie & sol can follow
all depends on whether big choge has recovered from doha - that sorta race can take the starch out of your sails for the whole season !
Chris Solinsky wins the race in 12:52.38 outkicking Lagat by two hundredths of a second.
Considering that the meet record is Bekele's 12:52 in 2003, I'd say it probably won't require a "12:50 or faster" to win.
In any case, the problem for Solinsky getting the AR is that he'll have to not only run that fast but also get separation from Lagat. I could see this race going like the 10k in Stanford, where Solinsky gets to play the Rupp character.
neither...It probably requires a winning time of 12.50 or faster and i don't think anybody is capable of that now (Kipchoge ran sub-par over 1500m in Ostrava - did he peak in
Doha??????). I hope both dip under 13. oh yeah, i will be there.
I don't know, Solinsky showed he has a killer kick as well. He just might be able to pull it off if he can get even a little distance on him. Plus, Lagat doesn't have that 800m+ kick that Solinsky does. Most of his kick occurs in the last 200m.
sol's race was far from perfect...it's a pity because consensus here seems to be he may never get another 10k like that in his career & he didn't quite get the right race pace & he had 26'50 in him
The race may not have been setup perfectly for Solinsky to run his absolute fastest time, but it wasn't far from his best and no where near a pity.
I don't know, Solinsky showed he has a killer kick as well. He just might be able to pull it off if he can get even a little distance on him. Plus, Lagat doesn't have that 800m+ kick that Solinsky does. Most of his kick occurs in the last 200m.[/quote]
Guys, that kick was not something you're going to see on the regular, not that big of a kick. Solinsky has stated time and time again that he was full of adrenaline that last mile. Adrenaline has allowed scrawny people to lift cars.
The reason we were all watching Chris in disbelief is because he was going somewhere he never normally goes. Don't expect that to be a standard finish for him. It's not realistic. I'd expect better finishes than previously simply because he has higher confidence and he knows that he is physically capable of it (albeit loaded on adrenanline) but the next time he's in a race where he's not feeling like it's a dream that adrenaline buildup will not be so high. Oslo will likely be just that.
FYI, Lagats kick looks like it's only in the last 200 because he has another gear the last 200. Had they been finishing up 5K at the cardinal invite, Lagat would have loved sitting off Chris that first 700 and then "kicking" in the last 200. That's the reality for now. I'd love to be wrong, but I've been around long enough to know what the likelihood of that is.
Lagat and Bekele are getting old though, and Chris and the rest keep improving, the gap grows smaller.
One 5000m race taking, "the starch out of your sails for the whole season" is just one of the idiotic things to come from your post but its one of your worst. My goodness I just ran 3.1 miles and it was so taxing my season is shot LOL.
Eliud Kipchoge has been known to run as many as five to six 5000m races in a season except for last year in 2009. Some years he has had as many as 11-12 track races from distances of 1500m to 10000m. To even utter such hot air about a 5000m taxing you the rest of the season shows your not a middle or long distance runner and definitely never have been an elite runner! Heck most sprinters thats been on any type of team know a 5000m races isn't going to take the starch out of your sails the whole season.
I really hope your right about one thing and that the race goes out close to 12:40 pace.
Anyone know if Oslo meet will be shown on one of the TVU channels?
I ain't payin' no $20 bucks to universalsports.com
All Africans and one white boy. Wooo...it should be easy to spot CS!
Why are posters saying 12:50 has nothing to do with it when their are two guys who already run 12:51 this season. The track is pretty good for distance running and the only thing stopping it from being a sub 12:50 race is the two guys who already run 12:51 not requesting such a pace. There are 3 or 4 guys in the field who are capable of 12:49 or faster come June 4.
Expectations in distance running lead to one thing... dissapointment.
It's great solinski ran a blitzing 10k, and I hope it translates to a great 5k, but the reality is that we have no real way of knowing what kind of 5k shape he's in... until he runs a 5k.
I'm all about being hyped to see what he can do, but as far as trying to predict what he'll run by putting in his "1:56" kick into some fanboy formula that spits out a predicted time, and then arguing with others over it is like listning to 15 year old emo kids talk about how they were the first to listen to Vampire Weekend...
I hope he breaks 13, if not, so what... you can't run A.R.'s everytime you step on the track...
I think Solinsky beats Kip. I also think the time is between 12:55 and 13:01. Chris is too strong for Lagat. Lagat is faster (1500/3k), but not stronger (5k and up).
Bernard Lagat is a 5000 World Outdoor Champion, one of the few men to beat a healthy Kenenisa Bekele at 5000m, and TWO time 3000m World Indoor Champion and he isn't stronger than Chris Solinsky in the 5000m? You don't know track and field. Just because Bernard Lagat has run a track 10000m many think he can't when he was an All-American in NCAA 10000m X-Country while in college. Bernard Lagat is better than the fast improving Chris Solinsky in the 5000m and could be in the 10000m if he focused on the longer event.
And you have your head in the sand. Bernard was no better then Goucher, Meb, et al while in college, and within a few months, busts out the 2nd fastest 1500 of all time. Oh so coincidentally, his urine A sample tests positive for EPO. The argument of he can't be a cheater because of his fine character doesn't quite hold water considering this is the same man who lied to US and Kenyan officials about his citizenship so he could represent Kenya at the Olympics.
So, yes, I believe a now clean Lagat has no more strength then Solinsky (doped or undoped.... I have no idea what the Portland boys are or are not doing).
An undrugged Kip in his prime is a 3:30, 7:30, 12:56 guy. About as good as Goucher, Solinsky, Kennedy, Webb, Ritz, Rupp, etc (the ones who never made those marks, I am clearly talking about potential). Which lines up with his collegiate marks and competition.
An older (2010), presumably cleaner Kip is a 3:32, 7:32, 12:58 guy.
By the time London comes around, he will be a 3:33, 7:35, 13:02 guy.
So, my undeducated self says don't be fooled by Bernard's drugged times. His un-aided strength is no better then Chris' strength today. As I said, I have no idea if Chris' strength is unaided or aided, but that's not the question here.
BTW, everyone was drugged when Bernard tested positive (with the exception of maybe Haile), so I am not going to condemn the man. I would be surprised if BK wasn't, Komen, El G, too. Just stating an opinion of why you perceive BL to have better strength then CS, and why I think your assessment is incorrect. You're extrapolating the fitness of a drugged athlete in his prime with a presumably clean athlete that is aging.
is lagat considered a master's runner now? I thought it was 35+
I'll also add that just because I view Chris' strength as better then Kip's does not mean that BL can not still win big races or run fast (i.e. World Indoors, 2007 WC Outdoors). The man is a MASTER racer. He is the best racer I have possibly ever seen. SO he can still win Championships and perform well because he knows how to win. He, actually, embodies what I think our current crop of athletes can achieve. Through extremely high fitness and savvy racing, one can achieve greatness at the international stage without being a 12:40s 5k runner (there are few if any right now who can run in the 12:40s anyway, so maybe that fact is a moot point anyway).
Talking about Lagat's 800m+ kick
He did close in 1:46 in Athens.
6 years ago in a 1500m race.
Lagat hasn't tried too many fast 5,000's so there is a big unknown there.
Solinsky's 10K AR reminds me of Ritz's 5K AR last year. No expectations going in, people saying it's not his event, blah blah blah. No pressure followed by huge success closing hard late in the race. Solinsky is under pressure now. He should try to race like Ritz and hang a bit back off the pace so he'll have plenty left in the tank and can close hard. Would hate to see a DNF or 13:20 or something like that if he goes out too fast...
what a load of crap you wrote. So now, whatever one does in college is the only way we can judge their potential? Suuure.... So I guess Teg is clearly doped out of his mind, because NOONE with his college career should almost get a bronze in a WC's or run 12:58. And Solinsky, he did real well in his NCAA x-c championships, huh? I guess his running 26:59 is clearly a sign of a druggie.
Oh yeah, I noted that you said you had no idea if the portland guys were drugged, and that virtually everyone was drugged at one time, so.... what the hell is your point exactly? Oh, I guess you sort of got to it here: "You're extrapolating the fitness of a drugged athlete in his prime with a presumably clean athlete that is aging." Well you have no proof lagat was ever indeed drugged ( yes, believe it or not, the drug tests are not perfect, and there have been false positives before for sure), just as you have no proof he is clean now, or that Solinksy is clean now, etc. You just have a lot of conjecture which isn't worth a hill of beans.
so let's throw out all of the clean or drugged accusations on both sides and say this: In the last three years, Lagat won an outdoor WC's in 5k (after winning the 1500), an indoor WC's at 5k, and a silver in the WC's 5k (after a bronze in the 1500). Sounds like he has some strength recently, huh? Oh wait, tell us when exactly he stopped taking drugs so we can better assess his potential in this race? Was it before or after last year's WC's when he came pretty damn close to pulling off another 1500/5k double? And Bernie has declared he is fully focused on 5k this year. How is Solinsky's record in 5k for the last few years?? Yes, after Solinsky's amazing 26:59, anything is possible for him it seems. But your use of drug assumptions to dismiss Bernie's current potential in 5k is silly.
Unless age ( I agree with you there) has really caught up to Lagat (and we have not really seen signs of that recently), his potential in 5k is still huge. I would say at least as good as Solinky's, and certainly better in a championship race.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
And Solinsky, he did real well in his NCAA x-c championships, huh? I guess his running 26:59 is clearly a sign of a druggie.
Yeah, he actually did. 15th, 16th, 3rd. Yeah he was 73rd his senior year but he had Lyme disease I think. So he was a very solid XC runner.