MARY KEITANY: can she take down Paula's Legendary 2:15:25 WR

Renato Canova wrote:

Speaking now about what she can do, using some mathematic calculation, is like to speak about fried air.

Every type of calculation is useless.....

love it. and so true.

Renato Canova wrote:

Speaking now about what she can do, using some mathematic calculation, is like to speak about fried air.

Every type of calculation is useless.....

love it. and so true.

She'd have show herself capable of running a sub-30 10k to really have a chance at 2:15. Paula was a 30 flat runner (probably capable of 29:45 in 03 mode) but her speed dacay is unmatchable. The next athlete to run 2:15 a will almost certainly come from a sub-30 10K background - possibly one of the ethiopians today who are capable of 29:30-40.

Renato Canova wrote:

Speaking now about what she can do, using some mathematic calculation, is like to speak about fried air.

Every type of calculation is useless.....

love it. and so true.

------------------------------

"Useless" is how I'd describe any talk about someone breaking Radcliffe's record. Get real, people. No one's currently within 5 minutes.

Renato Canova may be a great coach-advisor, but no matter how much endurance he adds to a speed runner's training program, or how much speed he adds to an endurance runner's training program, he's still going to get "fried air"--that is, an athlete who's 3 to 5 minutes slower than Radcliffe's mark.

If you run back to back 1:07:45 half marathons, you fall short of the world record. To suggest someone with the above 3 half marathons could break the world record would be like suggesting that a man who's put together 3 half marathons between 1:00:30 and 1:01 and has never run a marathon could take down the men's world marathon record.

Running 2:14:50 pace for 25k does not exactly indicated a 2:15:25 is coming anytime soon. But sub 2:20 would put her firmly ahead of any competitors, so it's still very exciting.

Don't be so quick to spit out the first thought that pops into your head. Renato said the same thing I said when I started this thread that Mary gets better the longer the distance, she is now doing specific marathon training, and lastly the WR isn't in the near future but perhaps 1-3 years down the road! Mary even said the same thing herself in the article on the T&FNews site.

Her goal for her debut marathon if in Chicago or a flat fast course is 2:18-sub 2:20. The WR will come under attack after more marathon training, more WR at road distance other than the marathon, and experience in the event!

douglas burke wrote:

i think it will be one of the current track runners as mentioned, defar, t. dibaba, melkamu, linet masai, vivian cheruiyiot, mercy cherono.

these are who i think can challenge the 2:15.25 world record.

some consider the 2:17.42 the world record, because it was in a all womens race, all the ones i mentioned except mercy cherono can run that right now, add flanagan to that list and my pick for the next womens american record holder in the marathon lisa koll.

Only 1 women in history has broken 2:18 for the marathon. Paula 3 times. I find it very unlikely that there are this many current runners ready to join her. And it doesn't matter what some consider the WR - it's what the IAAF considers.

Really? Defar, dibaba, Melkamu, Masai, Cheruiyiot and Flanagan can all run 2:17 right now? Cmon. Knock it off.

rsbones wrote:

I think the point is that if you are a man and you are going to set a world record, you will have to be faster than your "rabbit." But the women can have a faster runner pace them all the way to the line.

This is an excellent point! Male pacesetters for a woman are not competition. I'm still wondering, however, how many of the older records were set by women running with men. It's interesting how many of the top women's times from the 1980s would still be very competitive today. Kristiansen's 2:21 in 1985 in London would still be a near certain winner today (by contrast, Steve Jones ran 2:08:16 in London that year. Perfect cromulent time, but it's been 15 years since that would have been a winning time). Is that partially because back then a woman who wanted to run 2:20-2:22 had the beneft of unofficial pacesetters who were not competition (I don't know when London moved to separate starts for men and women, so I may be talking out my ass here)?

Surprise! wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

i think it will be one of the current track runners as mentioned, defar, t. dibaba, melkamu, linet masai, vivian cheruiyiot, mercy cherono.

these are who i think can challenge the 2:15.25 world record.

some consider the 2:17.42 the world record, because it was in a all womens race, all the ones i mentioned except mercy cherono can run that right now, add flanagan to that list and my pick for the next womens american record holder in the marathon lisa koll.

Only 1 women in history has broken 2:18 for the marathon. Paula 3 times. I find it very unlikely that there are this many current runners ready to join her. And it doesn't matter what some consider the WR - it's what the IAAF considers.

Really? Defar, dibaba, Melkamu, Masai, Cheruiyiot and Flanagan can all run 2:17 right now? Cmon. Knock it off.

.....................

You left of Elvan Abeleggesse and Mary Keitany.

The lady with the best chance at sub 2:18 is Mary Keitany. If she runs Chicago or Berlin fast courses, get ideal weather, and good pacing I don't see why she couldn't go 2:17:59 or faster in her debut. 1:08:29

/1:09:30= 2:17:59 if her marathon training goes without any setbacks should within Mary's grasp!

In my opinion I feel Mary will eventually be better at the marathon than she currently is in the 1/2 marathon!

Its a 26.2 miles and the SUPER ELITE women are a huge disadvantage not having anyone to push time with seperate starts for men and women. If a lady shows up in 2:18 shape and her closest competitor maybe in say 2:21 shape who gonna push her to her limit.

Say what you will but even in Geb's last two marathon world record he had pacers and other competitors he could draft off of during at least the first 24-25kms and another near 30kms. With seperate starts a female in 2:18 shape would MOST likely be by herself after the first 10km (TEN) KILOMETERS!

Just because a lady have a male pacing her, she is still the one picking her feet up and putting them down! His pacing isn't going to help her AT ALL if she isn't in shape to run the targeted time.

True Paula Radcliffe had an eerry ability to hold her near max without much speed decay; however, many of you assume Mary Keitany doesn't have the same ability. In almost all of her 1/2 marathon blowouts she simply goes at an incredible clip rarely picking the pace up and burns the other ladies out with her steady pace. Her times from 1500m to 1/2 marathon and now 25kms all get better the longer the distance.

That to me indicates her speed decay is only surpassed by Paula Radcliffe now we just have to wait til her first marathon to see how incredible Mary's speed decay.

come on people... WHO CARES WHO IS PACING!!!!!!!

if you ran the time, you RAN the time. doesn't matter who 'helped' or 'pushed' or 'paced'....

as someone stated earlier, back in the day elite women drafted and paced with sub-elite men. does that mean all those WR's should be nullified?

VIPAM wrote:

Its a 26.2 miles and the SUPER ELITE women are a huge disadvantage not having anyone to push time with seperate starts for men and women. If a lady shows up in 2:18 shape and her closest competitor maybe in say 2:21 shape who gonna push her to her limit.

This is probably due to lack of depth more than anything else. If you have three 2:20 women in a race then the victor will probably run 2:20. If you have ten of them then you'll see someone bust a 2:18 just for survival.

Every now and then an Athlete comes along who raises the bar to a magical height such as Jesse Owens (LJ), Daniel Komen, Sotomayor, Burka, JJK, Michael Johnson, Bolt...and Paula Radcliff. We always assume because another athlete gets close or is on the right trajectory that the record will be broken. Although all records will eventually be broken, but not necessarily by an athlete 'on paper' who are expected to break it. Usually even the athlete who set record can't do it again.

I don’t want to suggest any incredible performance was luck, but records are set when all the stars align...everything is perfect, scheduling, conditioning, venue, incentives, pacing, whether, etc., etc., etc., etc. Obviously I am talking about off the charts records, not the incremental ones. If you think about the circumstances when the records were set, for example, when Wariner ran 43.5 a lot of people though the 400m record was a done deal, but when MJ ran 43.1 it was on a rock hard track, no wind, 82 degrees and it done when Mike was perfectly fit while maintaining an unmatched low percentage of body fat which you can only maintain for a short period of time without getting sick or injured. When Daniel Komen ran his 7:20 3k, he was in 3:29 1500m and 12:40 5k shape and he ran the record at a meet and in a race when there was nothing on the line but the 3k record. When Jesse Owens set the long jump record, when he ran down the runway he carried with him weight of thing we can only imagine, which far exceeded a medal. (Like I said, I don’t want to call it luck, but some many things have to be right, beyond the things you can control.) Perhaps one of the Ethiopian ladies have the talent if they take a shot ‘right now’ while they are at the top of their game, but like I said, capability isn't enough… the stars have to align. No disrespect to Coach Canova, but I am pretty certain MaryK will not come close to Paula’s record and we should not even be talking about it until she runs 2:18. And not to take anything away from MaryK, but I watched Tirunesh Dibaba run a 15k in 46:26, she hit the 10k mark 31:24 and basically cruised the rest of the way…keep in mind she was coming off of a long layoff from injury. Tirunesh will break the road 10k/15k/20k/25k and half marathon record whenever she feels like it.

Talent isn’t enough, Paula had two weird human quirks, the ability to handle an insane training load and live an insanely monastic lifestyle singularly dedicated to one pursuit. As important as sport is to an elite athlete, it is almost impossible to get an athlete to make running the absolute center of their universe. Paula had the talent of a servant, body of a mule and mind of a monk.

Just like Jesse Owens' long jump record which lasted for decades; perhaps the female to break Paula’s record isn’t even born yet.

isaac macharia wrote:

She has all it takes to break Paula RecordlMarathon running has changed alot,track runners have no place in marathons.Fast marathoners are young flesh athletes,not them that retire from track

Isaac my man. This is clearly not your forum or platform to spread that bullshit of yours Dude! If I remember rightly both Paula and Haile had clearly moved their focus from Track to Road Marathons at the time of their WR's. And having racd in Haile's 2008 WR race I can tell you that not many 'young flesh athletes' can actually keep up with the 'old man'!

And for all that other crap that's flying around today talking about 'Records don't count just the here in now is relevant'. Bullshit!!! My friends if you ever run a Marathon even at 2:10 (2:30 for the Ladies) you will get an idea of what an achievement it must be to go 6mins (15mins for The Ladies) faster. If one day someone does break either of those Marathon WR's then that will be an awesome achievement and worthy to put in the history books but anyone who knocks any of those two athletes holding the Records right now is and idiot and doesn't have the slightest idea of the sport.

Get real and do some Running.......

stillllll searching..... wrote:

as someone stated earlier, back in the day elite women drafted and paced with sub-elite men. does that mean all those WR's should be nullified?

When was "back in the day"? I don't recall any such cases among the top women until the last ten or twelve years. As I said earlier, the very suggestion that Joanie might have been paced or assisted by a male runner was scandalous in 1983, and was emphatically denied.

On a related note: Have male "pacers" or windbreaks ever been used to set women's world records at distances shorter than the marathon, or is this phenomenon peculiar to big-money marathons competing against each other for fast times and records?

Quit talking about the record. It's impossible to break but it's not everything. HOnestly consider Paula radcliffe 2:29:27 timing and you could see over 100 athletes break it. Teyba Erkesso, Aselefech Mergia, Atsede Baysa, And Liliya Shobukhova already broke Paula's record.

Nutella1 wrote:

[quote]VIPAM wrote:

1:06:36...Oct 2009

1:06:54...Nov 2009

1:07:00...Sep 2009

So she ran 3 1/2 marathons at 2:13:40 avg marathon pace.

Similarly, based on % faster than the wr, if a guy ran 3 1/2 marathons in

1:01:00

1:01:15

1:01:21

Would you even bring this point up?

So no, I don't think she has a shot. The womens marathon world record is the strongest one on the books, including komens 7:20, the 8:06 doped 3k by the chinese, Bolts 9.58 or anything else. The fact that the best womens 1/2 marathons are routinely won in around 67-68 (marathon wr pace) is a testament to Paulas record.