I need to explain something about Mary Keitany.
a) I'm not the coach of Mary. I'm the supervisor of her programs, that are prepared by my friend Gabriele Nicola, young Italian working with me from longer than 10 years. I followed Mary during the last period (from 6th of April) because Gabriele was not in Kenya, and I arranged some workout changing little things only, how we normally do approaching an important competition.
b) There is confusion (in Tilastopaja too) between Mary Keitany and Mary Ptikani. Mary Keitany NEVER ran any marathon. The project is to debut or in Chicago or in New York. Speaking now about what she can do, using some mathematic calculation, is like to speak about fried air.
Every type of calculation is useless, because :
1- Also if two athletes have the same performance in one event, looking at another distance the result probably is not the same, because their SPECIFIC individual attitudes are different. For every distance, we have two typologies of athletes : the FAST (for example, speaking about Marathon, athletes very fast in 10000m) and the RESISTANT (athletes starting from long run, without previous experiences in short distances). The athletes of the first category can have more talent if show the possibility of physiological and mental adaptation (not alòways this can happen). If don't show this adaptation, NEVER they can become good marathon runners.
The athletes of the second category, NEVER can become top champions, but for them is easier to become GOOD marathon runners.
2- The type of training for the two different typologies must be different. In the case of FAST runners, we must look for EXTENDING the Aerobic Power (that is very high) having the goal to REDUCE the consumption of fuel "super" (glycogen) in order to be able to last longer. In the case of RESISTENT runners, we must look for QUALIFYING the speed of long run, trying to increase the POWER of their engine, because the limit is the long speed.
3- The reason because in 2010 it's difficult to find marathon runners (women) able to run really fast (25 years ago we had Ingrid Kristiansen and Joan Benoit at 2:21...) is that, at that time, all the athletes were specialists of short distances on track, because the Marathon for women was at the beginning only, and there were not real specialists. For example, Ingrid Kristiansen was only a good specialist (but not a top runner) on track for the LONGEST distance at that time : 3000m. She moved to Marathon when the event became interesting under the economic point of view, but, for top Championships, looked for 15 km on roads, winning the title in 1987 and 1988, because there were not 5000 and 10000m on track, neither HM. When (in 1986) for the first time, women had officially 10000m on track (European Championships in Stuttgart), Ingrid decided to prepare essentially that event, and was no more able to run a full marathon fast like before.
Paula Radcliffe is the typical example of FAST runner, while Takahashi is the example of RESISTENT runner.
4- Another reason because today it's difficult for a women running under 2:20 is that there are a lot of Marathon with very high prizes / time bonuses, and the most part of athletes can win a lot of money in short time, also without a real technical project. This is expecially the case of many Ethiopians, product of an ambience of runners more than of a technical plan. The Ethiopians are still very young, and usually run in 2-3 years a lot of competitions, being hungry of money. The most part of managers don't care about the duration of their career, because for them it's very easy to replace a burnt athlete with another (look at the seasonal list, how many Ethiopians there are already under 2:30).
5- What we have to try to do with Mary, is to create a plan for lasting several years. So, it's a mistake to rush too much : we have to create the BASE for running marathon at top level, and for lasting. It's clear that an athlete like Mary can look for a time of 2:18 in her career (really the 2:15 of Paula looks far from the possibility of other specialist of today : don't forget Paula had 8'22" in 3000m...), but this is the plan for 2012. The advantage is that, for her mentality, she WANTS to have a technical project, not looking at money in short time. At the end of every thing, it's the brain that makes the difference