Rupp 10,000 meter prediction thread

a wrote:

Rupp is in good shape but running sub 27:20 is getting pretty fast for a guy with his prs.

FYI when Rupp ran 27:33 he was roughly a

4:01

7:50

13:30

28:15?

runner with no ncaa titles & he was throwing in major surges in the race, it was actually quite strange to see.

anyone have a link to that race??? He looked to be ready for more than 27:33 for sure.

Anyway he is now

3:55-3:56 (3:39 from regionals)

7:42 (indoors)

13:14 (indoors)

27:33 (remember how much he pr'd by last time?)

and a dominant 6 time ncaa champ with a much improved close.

even his PR's under 10K are going to get rocked this summer.

everything adds up to a PR whomping for 10K.

Bill Huntington wrote:

I guess he wanted to show message board posters he wasn't a pu**y after all!!

That's right! Way to go letsrun message board! We saved Rupp from an imminent case of vaginitis.

edumacator wrote:

Well the alternative explanation would be that his 5k PR back when he ran 27:33 was well slower than what he was capable of, so he's basically just gotten it down to where it should be. I think he ran sub 13:40 for the 2nd 5k of his 10k, so certainly he was capable of better than his 13:30 5k PR at the time. Just playing devil's advocate.

Well I agree with you. The same is the case with 27:33 though to me. He did not run that race the way the most do when they run the fastest race of their lives, stretched out and fairly even during most of the race. Rupp was blasting between groups like he was doing a workout. There is no way you can race like that and it actually be the fastest time you are capable of.

I don't think any of Rupps PR's (except maybe 800) are true indications yet because none of them have been set in ideal conditions which are:

Good weather

1 race to worry about (his 1500 mark was during a conference double)

A rabbit or competitors who race at a pace better than you are capable of

All of Rupps marks have simple come from indoors or pac-10s while doubling or that cardinal invite 10K which he could more than handle.

When he gets stretched out in europe or PRE his marks will drop to what he's really capable of. And more importantly the last time Rupp was focussed on running for a time instead it was his freshman year at Oregon and he set the AJR for 10K.

a wrote:

Indoors doesn't mean slow. If people were in the same shape for indoor as outdoor (which can be done if you mess up your beak), indoors isn't much slower for things like the 3 and 5k. You have the big advantage of good weather (no wind and a good temperature).

And the ability to run at a certain pace and the ability to handle pace changes are not always the same. Some people handle surges and the like better than others. You can image that both Pre and Rupp were a bit faster than AlSal over 400m which makes running 30s pace easier for them while AlSals aerobic strength made it possible to hold a faster steady pace. No real evidence about things like this.

Rupp is in good shape but running sub 27:20 is getting pretty fast for a guy with his prs.

[quote]jussa thought wrote:

FYI, this guy ran his best indoor 5K of 13:11 in 2004 and in 2005 he ran his PR of 27:12 at the Cardinal invite.

Incidentally his outdoor 5K top marks are 12:54 and 12:56.

You can go thru this list of 5K guys and see what they run for 5K indoors in relation to where their 5K and 10K marks outdoors line up. Rupps mark indoors lands him in strong company. Granted some of them are 1500-5K types but you can figure out who the 5K-10K types are pretty easily.

I'm sure the truth lies somewhere in the middle - he won't PR by 40 seconds just because his 5k PR dropped by 20 seconds, but at the same time there's no reason to think he won't PR by a good amount. I just hope that he goes for it, and that other people go with him. I'm also excited to see if someone else can break through by hanging onto the train. Maybe Fam will actually run a smart race? And is Solinsky racing this thing, or rabbitting it?

I think he has a great chance of breaking the AR, a pretty good chance of breaking 27:10, a small chance of breaking 27:05 and though I don't think he'll break 27, I wouldn't be totally shocked if he did it.

edumacator wrote:

I'm sure the truth lies somewhere in the middle - he won't PR by 40 seconds just because his 5k PR dropped by 20 seconds, but at the same time there's no reason to think he won't PR by a good amount. I just hope that he goes for it, and that other people go with him. I'm also excited to see if someone else can break through by hanging onto the train. Maybe Fam will actually run a smart race? And is Solinsky racing this thing, or rabbitting it?

I think 20 seconds is very realistic here and perhaps another 5 on top of it.

Solinsky is racing according to Jerry's quotes. There are some good runners in the field, if Fam respects Galens ability and doesn't fall back on a PRE movie he could get dragged into the 27:20's, who knows maybe dip under.

Chelanga? Who knows maybe him as well.

One possibility (which would suck in a way) is that Chelanga and others are fit enough to sit on Rupp at 27:15-27:20 pace but not strong enough to help out at that pace and Rupp turns it into a race and the time is gone. Normally I like the racing but Rupp can beat everyone in this field if he races it and this time I'd like to see what he can simply run for a time.

Bairu really could be a factor, as others have pointed out. 13th at WXC is no joke, so he's definitely got the strength.

What is interesting is how Salazar is so hell bent to run a fast 10K this weekend. He seems to have a very rigid workout plan for Rupp. Apparently he can't just make the best of whatever race he wants to run this weekend and then wait for better conditions in a week.

27:09

Ryan Foreman wrote:

What is interesting is how Salazar is so hell bent to run a fast 10K this weekend. He seems to have a very rigid workout plan for Rupp. Apparently he can't just make the best of whatever race he wants to run this weekend and then wait for better conditions in a week.

Are you suggesting he races two 10Ks in a week?

Rupp rarely backs off, I'm assuming he backed off a little this week and they plan to get straight back at it next week for the big picture.

I doubt he's running another 10K before USA's (if even there) and that will be a tactical affair. So it's now or the next attempt in Europe in months and if the iron is hot and you got an AR in sight you might as well strike.

I could see Rupp doing 5K at USA's since there is nothing to qualify for this year and then a 5K or mile at PRE. Then go race 3-4 times in Europe and i bet he'd like to hit a 3K, 5k and 10K while he's there so he may get 2 hard efforts at 10K this year (tomorrow and a mid-late summer one). The only way I see him doing more than that is if he knows he's ready for sub 27 (assuming he doesn't get it the first go around in europe) and a great race shapes in the later summer.

edumacator wrote:

Bairu really could be a factor, as others have pointed out. 13th at WXC is no joke, so he's definitely got the strength.

13th in world cross is legit but he doesn't seem to translate onto the track. I wouldn't be surprised if wasn't even the first guy from Jerry's group, but it would be a nice surprise if he can contribute to a fast race.

On the other hand, what if Jerry had 3 guys in the 27:3X's or better? I'd be impressed with Solinsky if he sneaks under 27:45 though.

Well, I was suggesting he could not run at all this weekend or run but back off. He backed off in his race in Berkley a couple weeks ago.

The fact that he was seriously considering running an impromptu race Saturday night at Hayward goes to show that Salazar can set up a time trial 10K virtually anytime he wants.

But then I agree that he is probably not going to run another 10K. And thats the point. I imagine Salazar probably wants to get going on preparing Rupp's speed for the tactical races later this summer.

27:11

Lets look at Geb since I know he ran a decent amount indoor races1500m 3.33.73 3.31.76 hey look at that indoors is 2 seconds faster3000m 7.25.09 7.26.15 1.06s slower. That is in the pure randomness factor5000m 12:39.36 12:50.38 yeah this one is slower by 11s but compare the number of indoor 5k to outdoor ones.The shape of the athlete matters more than the track.Or just looking at Rupp, after running 13:18 last year indoors, how much faster did Rupp run outdoors? How much did he beat his indoor 3k time by? We had this discussion last year at the same time. And no Rupp didn't break the 10k record last year either.

Agreed. Seems to me that AlSal is focusing Rupp for an all out effort for time, hence the effort they are going through to find the right conditions. Less than ideal conditions will not ptovide them with the benchmark they need to really gauge Rupp's current ability. AlSal is getting Rupp ready for competing at the world level this summer, which is why they need a true indicator time now. Can Rupp run 27 low with a fast last 2K...?

Also, its not just about the time, it's about how its run. Meaning, sub 27:20 pace, with the ability to run a 55 or better last lap, which is what Rupp needs to be able to do to compete at the world level - AlSal is all about preparing his athletes for maximum performance. I predict low 27, with a very fast last lap! This will be on course for summer competion and anything less will be disappointing to them!

a wrote:

Lets look at Geb since I know he ran a decent amount indoor races

1500m 3.33.73 3.31.76 hey look at that indoors is 2 seconds faster

3000m 7.25.09 7.26.15 1.06s slower.

Geb ran few 1500s, the 3:31 satisfied his need to do more there. Indoors depends on the track more than outdoors, as well as the competition and how the race develops.

Rupp's PR in the 2 Mile is 8:54 (from high school). Don't be dumb are you telling me he has not improved since high school? He could run a PR by twenty seconds and get 8:34. And hello, 10k is three times the distance. That translates to a 1 minute pr in th 10K, for those of you math challenged. So he is capable of 26:33 right now! Good job Rupp.

I think you are wanted on the other thread that is trying to rationalize why Wheating is a 3:30 guy right now.