CAL Brutus Invite: Predictions for Rupp in 5000m, Womens 3000m, Coe in the Mile...

Perspectivation wrote:

I gotta think Rupp is out to bust some rust out before the 10K and I really doubt he'd be shooting for under 13:10.

The best races of the season are still several months away so he should have backed off after worlds and now be back on the upswing in his training. If Rupp is a 27:00 or better 10K runner he can still take aim at 27:13 on the upswing but to be in 13:00-13:05 shape already would be pretty early.

I assume he'll want to be sharper around Pre and ready to go for a US title again with plenty left for the fast races in Europe.

I predict 13:20 +/- a few seconds assuming nice conditions. If he's feeling great he may kick it down to near his indoor PR.

He plans to focus on Mt. Sac as his spring season, then take a break and revamp for the summer. At least that was Sal's plan several months ago.

sorry, not Mt. Sac. Payton Jordan

noooo wrote:

sorry, not Mt. Sac. Payton Jordan

I'd assume he'll be racing a PRE too though, I thought it was part of the contract for Nike athletes if they were healthy. Plus I'm sure he'd like to race in Eugene at a meet like that.

They have a 5K so he could go for another 5k PR or perhaps a PR in the mile.

I guess it's about 10 days after US championships so I don't know how that will factor into their race lineup. Perhaps Rupp will run a 5K at USA's since there is no worlds to qualify for? That might sacrifice a US title and some money, but if it helps in chasing american records or 13:00/27:00 marks (which I assume are contract bonus marks) perhaps it's worth it.

In 1979 I saw Craig Virgin run an AR 27:39 solo at the TAC Championships which were held at Mt. Sac. Not only did he not have a rabbit or pacers but I believe he lapped the entire field. Tough way to do it and I think Stanford would be the smarter choice for Rupp.

I saw deena do pretty much the same thing at the olympic trials in 2004. I think she lapped everyone else in the field except 1. Don't remember the time but it was incredible.

Looks like there may actually be some wind in Berkeley tonight, slowing times a bit.

will this be streaming anywhere?

I second that question - anyone know if it's streaming anywhere? Flotrack has a page for it, but it's not clear to me if it will have a video stream or not.

I managed to find the live results page here, no thanks to the crappy organization of the Cal Track and Field website ...

http://www.sml1.com/recordtiming/cal/brutus10/

The real question is how fast will Rupp run next week. PR? AR? Sub-27? Also, can we expect to see Ritz soon? I would love to see a Rupp-Ritz battle it out.

"Rupp's ultimate goal is to be able to mix it up with the best East Africans short of Bekele himself. It seems like Rupp is at the point where to achieve that"

-shockingly delsuional. wow.

Ritz is still injured...no track season this year. Fall marathon is the goal now, 2 out of 3 goals for 2010 not accomplished.

Place Name Team Time Splits

1 Rupp, Galen Unattached 13:32.53 1:40.29 1:07.00 1:05.71 1:05.88 1:07.12 1:05.16 1:02.83 1:03.38 1:06.69 1:05.11

2 Romero, Juan Carlos Nike German Silva 13:34.27 1:40.82 1:06.85 1:05.68 1:06.00 1:06.98 1:05.65 1:03.35 1:03.61 1:04.88 1:05.12

3 Takezawa, Kensuke S&B 13:47.30 1:39.85 1:07.12 1:05.79 1:06.56 1:07.03 1:06.13 1:02.14 2:09.87 1:06.50

4 Horn, Jordan McMillan Elite 13:50.03 1:40.54 1:06.90 1:05.72 1:05.94 2:12.31 1:03.64 1:04.55 1:06.91 1:08.26

5 Ikuto, Yufu Komazawa University 13:54.15 1:41.01 1:06.92 1:05.64 1:06.01 1:07.01 1:06.07 1:05.58 1:07.49 1:09.68 1:08.59

6 Moen, Josh Team USA MN/Strands 13:57.49 1:41.72 1:06.08 1:06.01 1:06.12 1:06.87 1:06.38 1:07.00 1:07.13 1:08.34 1:08.58 17.26

7 Schmitt, Jake Washington 13:59.26 1:41.01 1:06.99 1:06.00 1:06.08 1:06.75 1:06.15 1:06.45 1:07.62 1:08.11 1:08.58

8 Watson, Robin Speed River TFC 14:06.84 1:40.80 1:06.33 1:05.33 1:06.22 1:07.15 1:06.47 1:06.62 1:08.06 1:09.00 1:11.33

9 Murakami, Yasunori Fujitsu_TF 14:07.59 1:41.23 1:07.21 1:06.08 1:06.25 1:06.48 1:06.93 1:07.73 1:09.75 1:10.86 1:10.02

10 Garcia, Amado Guatemala 14:13.19 1:41.44 1:07.32 1:05.97 1:06.31 1:06.03 03.97 1:02.93 1:08.19 1:09.69 1:10.98 1:10.60

11 Kihara, Masato Kanebo 14:15.99 1:40.09 1:07.09 1:05.77 1:06.59 1:07.02 1:06.39 1:09.40 1:12.61 1:11.87 1:10.31

12 Karlsson, Kari California 14:19.21 1:41.53 1:06.76 1:06.03 1:06.20 1:06.95 1:07.32 1:08.98 1:10.87 1:11.93 1:11.21

13 Chavez, Chris TRANSPORTS Adidas 14:21.32 1:41.78 1:07.06 1:06.05 1:07.36 3:29.52 1:10.76 1:10.67 1:11.27

14 Arevalo, Alfredo Guatemala 14:21.64 1:41.62 1:07.46 2:13.31 1:08.10 1:08.88 1:09.48 1:10.56 1:10.96

15 O'Donoghue-McDonald, Max Washington 14:21.73 1:41.65 1:06.92 1:06.74 1:08.11 1:08.56 1:09.60 1:09.98 1:10.56 1:10.83 1:11.85

16 Perez, Erick MEXICO 14:29.18 1:41.32 1:06.93 1:06.92 1:07.74 1:07.83 1:08.88 1:09.45 1:10.87 1:11.86 1:13.15

DNF Asmerom, Bolota Saucony/ Bay Area Track Club 1:39.61 1:07.02 1:04.54 1:05.31 1:05.17 1:05.72 1:04.03

DNF Lagat, Haron New York Road Runners 1:39.43 1:07.00 3:19.69

DNF Smyth, Patrick NIKE 1:40.56 1:06.93 1:05.66 1:05.89 1:07.07 1:05.65 1:07.06 1:09.96

DNS Gabrielson, Matt Reebok

DNS Iwamizu, Yoshitaka Fujitsu_TF

DNS Sayenko, Mike Strands

DNS Pérez, Israel Erick MEXICO

It will be interesting to read about it. Its so incredibly lame to have had no streaming video of it at all. But that is for a whole other thread. The x factor here is what Rupp was trying to do with this race. My bet is that Rupp sat back with all the other runners and focused on a fast 400 or 800 finish. But yeah, he obviously doesn't care right now about running anywhere close to the pace required to be competitive at the world elite level. Of course another x factor is what the conditions were like.

chief laughing hard wrote:

"Rupp's ultimate goal is to be able to mix it up with the best East Africans short of Bekele himself. It seems like Rupp is at the point where to achieve that"

-shockingly delsuional. wow.

Ryan Foreman wrote:

But yeah, he obviously doesn't care right now about running anywhere close to the pace required to be competitive at the world elite level.

-shockingly delsuional. wow.

[/quote]

I dont care about running anywhere close to world elite pace either.

Conditions were less than optimal in Berkeley tonight. Temperature was good, but wind seemed to be a factor - it was supposed to taper off as the evening went on, but didn't seem to.

Rupp sat in the top 3 to 5 for most of the race (led for a brief strectch), then kicked with about 300m to go.

not news wrote:

Conditions were less than optimal in Berkeley tonight. Temperature was good, but wind seemed to be a factor - it was supposed to taper off as the evening went on, but didn't seem to.

Rupp sat in the top 3 to 5 for most of the race (led for a brief strectch), then kicked with about 300m to go.

?? There was no wind. Also his "brief stretch" of a lead consisted of about 10 steps before he looked back and then slowed down and sat on the Nike guy. He couldve ran at least 20 seconds faster, but went for the win.

His fastest laps, 62 and 63, weren't even at the end. Looks like a tempo run to me. I think he plans to run the same pace next week in the 10k for the AR. We'll see.

Wind wasn't super strong, but enough to hamper people's time goals a bit--and Galen did mention it in the post-race interview. In any case, it sounds like this was just a prep race for next week (location TBD).

Sususu wrote:

?? There was no wind. Also his "brief stretch" of a lead consisted of about 10 steps before he looked back and then slowed down and sat on the Nike guy. He couldve ran at least 20 seconds faster, but went for the win.

thier was alot of wind and it was cold. im suprised begley ran fast in that conditon and rupp was smart to run for the win although he did surge then let the pack catch him like a cat playing with a mouse(juan carlos romero tough runner). the 10k was know way they where going to run fast to windy and half the field drop out since the pace was moderate. stanford will probably be better for most of these runners conditions where not good.