Wow, Pavlus' absence certainly throws a wrench into things. In Scherer, you have consistency, experience, and steady improvement. In Freese, you have the relative newcomer with big times and a kick to go with it. Perleberg looks rock-solid with the experience and fast times. Lawton has the blazing 5k but remains unproven in a fast 10k. Reich brings the miler threat but won't be fresh. Rawls is the precocious freshman thrown into the fire. Spelts, Sieve, Surtees, Childs-Walker, O'grady could be wildcards.
I'm sticking with Freese, Lawton, Scherer in the 10k and Reich, Perleberg, Sieve in the 5k.
Interestingly, Freese and Pavlus finished one spot apart at XC nats a year ago...