You know, there's something to be said for that red flag that goes off in ones mind. Personally mine went off for Ramzi as well as Komen and Ngeny. That doesn't mean I'm right on all of them but i can't escape that strong feeling that goes off the same way it goes off when you feel a strange person walking down the street before they have said anything or done anything.
Experience and a strong sense can go a long way. You pay attention to the characteristics and habits of people who have done something bad, and you start to notice them in others.
With most people and running they just focus on a sudden substantial PR. But that is a very narrow approach. You have to ask why? What might have contributed to the PR? What might have inhibited the PR or a more steady progression of PRs? In most cases there are logical reasons for this if you know enough about the runners.
And don't discount body language, attitude, and eyes. The eyes cannot lie (unless the person is a sociopath in which case you wouldn't trust anything they say).
To me Ritz's story is pretty simple. High school phemon, the best talent in 20 plus years outside of arguably Webb, Fernandez & Rupp. If you follow those guys you'll notice that they all have similar cases to Ritz. Injuries and spells where no significant PR's are laid down for logical and legitimate reasons.
If you were to ask anybody when Ritz was a senior in high school if they thought he would break Kennedy's AR at 5K who would have said no? He was light years ahead of Kennedy and he went to world jrs and finished 3rd. Do you know who he beat in that race?
1 182 Bekele Kenenisa ETH 25:04
2 323 Lebo Duncan KEN 25:37 0:33
3 534 Ritzenhein Dathan USA 25:46 0:42
4 315 Kemboi Nicholas KEN 25:52 0:48
5 Tegenkamp Mattew USA 25:55 0:51
6 317 Kipchumba Robert KEN 26:00 0:56
Lebo was 9 seconds up on Ritz and had finished 7th at world Cross Jrs in 1999 & 2nd in 2000 as well as 2nd at world champs 10K in 2000 so he was no fluke. He also had run 28:14 in 1999 and 28:12 in 2000 both in Nairobi Kenya at 5,500 feet altitude, so essentially he was already a 27:30 10K runner.
RITZ --
Kemboi ran 13:24 for 5K that year (2001).
Teg is now a 12:58 5K runner.
Kipchumba ran 27:44 prior to that race and 7:44, 13:19 & 27:25 the same year (2001).
If you don't think Ritz had the makings of a sub 13:00 runner at that point, who does???
And most important to me is that when I've seen Ritz in person or in interviews he looks like he has nothing to hide. He doesn't look guilty, he doesn't act guilty and he looks absolutely thrilled and passionate about his successes and failures.
If you've ever cheated and won at a game you know the difference between how that feels and how it feels if you won honestly.
Lastly, where Ritz was in relation to Teg and Bekele as a senior in high school doesn't look too different now in terms of the 5K.