Will Josh Cox win the Comrades race in South Africa?

Testing123 wrote:

There is no doubt Fordyce could break 30 minutes for 10km but his preparation was all for comrades so there was not much point running sub 30 minute 10kms.

That's just not true. According to Noakes (whom I don't particularly respect, but who worships Fordyce), Fordyce ran his PR of 30:28 for 10,000m in 1985, during a period when he was doing a lot of track racing. Although Fordyce obviously focused on Comrades, he ran many, many races at shorter distances during his Comrades streak, from 1500m through marathon and beyond. He never showed any ability to compete at an international level at any conventional distance.

Comrades may be a great race with a great tradition, and it is undoubtedly a "different animal" from conventional marathons and shorter races, but there has been considerable overstatement about the level of marathoning ability among Comrades competitors. The 35-year-old Salazar (ten years after his last international-caliber performance), the 40-something Kotov (twenty years after his fourth-place finish in a weak Moscow Olympic marathon), and the any-age Fordyce (never international-caliber) were nowhere near international-caliber marathoners when they won Comrades. Willie Mtolo and Thompson Magawana may have run Comrades when they were in international-caliber marathing condition (I'm not sure; Mtolo's second-place finishes at Comrades were either well before or well after his NYC victory, and I don't know that Magawana ever ran any world-class marathon times, although his Two-Oceans and 50k times were indicative of excellent marathoning ability), but I'm not aware of any great collection of marathoning ability at Comrades over the years.

Wow. Look at that photo. There are few things more nauseating than a man who loves himself that much

dean karnazes and josh should are the best ultra marathoners in the world and they should get married!

just kidding! those two make me sick!

He regularly ran 5km in a shade over 15 minutes in Johannesburg (1600m altitude) on a hilly course which in my opinion equates to a sub 30 minute 10km.

Also I think his 10km best was at a track race in Johannesburg so equates to a sub 30 coastal time...

If you are interested post him a question on facebook he has his own page..

Your opinion is wrong.

tough to call.Cox what's he been up to since Chicago 2 ten and change?Comrades a different ball game.wouldn't bet on him though too many unknown elements and people who live to run Comrades who would give him a run 4 his money.

Testing123 wrote:

Also I think his 10km best was at a track race in Johannesburg so equates to a sub 30 coastal time...

I don't think that's correct. Noakes noted which of Fordyce's PRs were at altitude; his 10,000m PR of 30:28 wasn't one of them. Moreover, Fordyce himself said that, when he could run 8k in "close to" 25 minutes at medium altitude, he was ready for Comrades. 8k in "close to" 25 minutes at medium altitude is nowhere near 10,000m in 30:28 at medium altitude.

Actually the 25min 8km quote was what he would do at the weekly Tuesday night RAC time trial which is not medium altitude unless you call 5700ft medium altitude.

I was a 30:30 10km guy and I have only ever dipped under 26 on that course a handful of times.

Fordyce was most def a sub 30 10km guy.

Cox is entering this race over-trained. He needed a much simpler approach, a la Alberto Salazar. Modest mileage, modest progression of long run 25-30-35-40M, repeat the cycle, increase the pace.

As Fordyce state, mileage is not as important as speed for Comrades. Cox has mentioned 175M weeks. Comrades is won on 90M/week with the right type of training. As Canova has stated, it's about fuel at this point, fuel, fuel, fuel, and have you developed your fueling capacities at the proper paces and distances.

Another crazy aspect is that this is a down year, which I think bodes well for Cox, but is much more difficult for an up year, when Cox's high mileage base would pay even greater dividends.

While I am disturbed as much as the next guy (and in San Fran to boot) with the wedding photo shared and how much more makeup he had than his bride, I wish him well here.He didn't go into this quietly [at least in part] because they are doing this as a fund raiser, to build awareness.

I hope he does! I am jealous. I would love to go to South Africa and run 56 miles and to be fit enough to run under 6 minute pace the whole way.

That is a sick pace and more power to him!

you might be right. I recall Noakes' description of Fordyce's training and it was very structured with regard to Comrades and the weeks leading up to it- there was a very critical 10-12 week window where Bruce was careful to run just the right amount of mileage he thought he needed to arrive at the starting line fresh. I think his maximum month was 400 miles or not too much over that. It did seem surprisingly low for such a long goal event.

Well, all said and done , the American finished in 6:51 and was probably nowhere near his best to be fair . I give him a lot of repect for finishing it as it must have been much more tough (humbling...a bit humiliating? with the press beforehand? ) to complete on such a miserable day and endless ,unforgiving course. I hope he can come back and give it another shot.

But that said , he certainly got a taste of this different kind of running known as comrades. For those who wax philosophical over the importance of being a 2:13 marathoner to win it really are off on the wrong track. Whether you run 2:10 or 2:22 marathons doesn't matter much after 70 km of running on unforgiving slopes . All that matters is what you can hold onto because the pace is so much slower than marathon pacing anyhow. It is a very specific talent/developed skill that is only very generally related to marathon speed. It is also not a guarantee of a great performance if your marathon time is relatively fast compared to a comparatively poor 10km performances (imho). Just because Bruce F. was also 30:30/2:18 guy doesnt mean you too can run like him over the last 30km !! That is what made him so special. On the other hand Leonid Shvetsov was a junior world champ at steeple (or silver?) but ran magnificently here. The last portions of this course are a seperate entity that neither favor nor reject track/road credentials... different skill sets in a similar sport

Good luck (and fair warning) to others that come over.I see the American woman in 4th did well and must have had some tremendous preparation for the race.

Remember Kotov at 46 had far superior performances (5:25?) to Salazar's performance at 35.. depite running probably close to 2:19 shape for marathon. In my mind he really illustrates the differences of this race.

I'm wondering if any of the commenters on this post have ever run for more than 4 hours at a time.

Maybe they should try it before running their mouths.

Have run a 7:30 100km. Agree fully with the TV commentators who made fun of his attempt to win. Didn't he make a statement the other week about being tired of people being all talk and not enough walk... justice was served today.

Agree 100% wrote:

I'm wondering if any of the commenters on this post have ever run for more than 4 hours at a time.

Maybe they should try it before running their mouths.

A course like that, everything has to cme together to do well. Looks like for Cox it wasn't his day, but it's great that he gave it a shot. And each year Comrades shows its different than a marathon.

Maybe he will be humbled some from today, but I don't fault him for the press build up. He was doing this as a fund raiser for a very very good cause and you need plubicity to raise money.

i second the shoutout for U.S. ultra star kami semick, who finished in 6:32:55 at age 43 for fourth woman, second masters.

Maybe he will be humbled some from today, but I don't fault him for the press build up. He was doing this as a fund raiser for a very very good cause and you need plubicity to raise money.

I'm not sure you need to trash talk and disrespect other runners though, are you?