I would not bet on Fernandez repeating, even if he is healthy, but I would not count him out either, if he is healthy.
My observations of how Fernandez races give me the impression that he almost always comes up big in races that he has a legitimate chance of winning (whether in a blowout or a tight finish), but somewhat less so in races where realistically he won't. Not 100% of the time - he came up big in USATF (despite not being in contention to win), but this is what I seem to see a lot of the time. I can easily think of a few other guys who seem to perform better/less well under similar sets of circumstances.
In an international 1500 that neither Fernandez nor Ulrey had any real chance of winning (like where Ulrey ran his 3:33 and finished 7th), I'd bet on Ulrey finishing ahead of Fernandez. But in an NCAA caliber race, in which I'd argue that Fernandez, Ulrey, Centro, Wheating if he runs, and probably a few other guys I'm neglecting at the moment, all have a reasonable chance, this is where I think Fernandez is most likely to shine. Might Ulrey, Centro, Wheating, or Somebody Else still beat him? Sure, but I absolutely would not count him out.