Fernandez reminds me a lot of Ritz. Highly talented but also highly ethereal. Whether or not he will suffer a similar period of extended injuries, is yet to be seen. . . Some of the most precocious talents have always had to flirt with the thin line between very fit and injured. Hopefully the guys at OSU are bringing German back slowly from injuries and allowing full recovery (and hopefully German is being honest with himself and waiting till he's truly healthy).
If he's had inconsistent training thus far I'd guess he's just not in decent shape, and I'm sure Chili Pepper hurt--even for somebody with his natural ability. However, I don't think that's reason to think he's suddenly out of contention for the National crown. If anything, they should bring him back slowly, building base, underracing him, and cultivating that aerobic engine. Throw in the occasional hard tempos, threshold runs and what not, and he's ready to roll. Remember the guy's got great natural strength; afterall, he ran arguably the toughest test of aerobic and anaerobic strength--the mile--in 3:56 for his first indoor race ever. Allegedly this was coming off of xc fitness only.
As for GF winning the crown, it would be tough. . . but if he's in the mix with 400 to go (and this would mean him being selfish for once) you've gotta believe he's gonna bust it out just like he did at National's 1500m. Let's review the contenders:
Chelanga said his training is behind.
Derrick looked great in his victory, he's fit, but will he peak at the right time?
GF looked haggard. Can he pull the talent and training together in time? He is a workhorse after all.
Puskedra. . . Puskedra is a great runner, but he's not going to win this year or in the 2 years following it. He's just not at the same level. You saw the way German dispensed him at Nike Nationals in the 2-mile, don't kid yourselves.
I hereby declare myself the first to predict that German Fernandez, sophomore at Oklahoma State University, will win the Nats. Furthermore, I'm going to predict the margin of his victory to be in excess of 23 seconds. I'm at your mercy Let's Run. If I turn out to be terribly wrong, then you may vindicate me and I shall sink to an acarpous, obsidian demise. If, however, I turn out to be correct, you must all emerge from the dingy lairs of your parents' basements, expose your pimpled, translucent fleshpads to the worldly sun, and acknowledge your latent homosexuality.
Capiche?