USAIN BOLT emergence and the Jamaicans unseen sprint domination, your thoughts?

Same is said wrote:

Marion Jones never tested positive.

bingo.

All right, I've tried to be civil, but its clear now you are an idiot, a troll, or a 3rd grader.

If you concur that West African descendants in the US and West African descendants in Jamaica are genetically the same, and therefore in any random sprint event the probability for the top finishers is like drawing names out of hat, THEN YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER THAT THE HAT HAS 41 MILLION AMERICAN NAMES AND 2.8 MILLION JAMAICAN NAMES.

In what magical probability space-time continuum do YOU live in that says the chances are exactly the same of 3 consecutive Jamaican names as 3 consecutive American names in this pool? How can you not see that isn't the case?

The "real" reason to suspect the Jamaicans - not just Bolt - is that even in just one international championship they have done things that are HUGE anomalies. Even from this one championship, it is abundantly clear that SOMETHING is skewed towards the Jamaicans. (n=30 is not the end all be all of statistics)

It does not guarantee that they are using PEDs - the "something" could be participation rates, or coaching, or training, and so on, but the reality is that PEDs must be in that mix of possibilities. When considered against the other things it could be, PEDs looks like the most reasonable explanation.

I actually dislike the "America has to win everything" attitude. My contention is on basic numbers, which happen to be very much against Jamaica in this case.

So stop with the name calling and the assumption of intent and come up with a real explanation or stop posting.

Bolt was ALWAYS a precocious talent. There is nothing "sudden" about his rise.

Jamaicans do not play football, basketball or baseball. Imagine USA sprinting without football alone. There would be probably 10 more <10 100m guys in the USA.

My guess is Bolt is clean. Ive never seen a sprinter with such physical gifts before. He is the best sprinter of all time, in my book.

Actually the hat does not have 41 million american names because most of those names are in the football and basketball hats. How many times have we been through this on this board. Track in the US is largely for people who can't cut it at a 'real' sport.

And since you're so in to numbers, explain to me the article on the front page and how you have a crapload of steeplechasers world champions and olympians all living a stones throw from each other in one village. There's one to get your panty's all in a twist about. And while you're at, how come most players on the Candian junior national hockey teams are born in januray and februrary. Didn't the USA have 3 siblings represent them in tae Kwon Do at the last Olympics? Don't a large percentage of US Olympic swimmers come from california? Don't the best US sprinters come from Texas, california and Florida? How do you explain these things? There are explanations for things that seem odd. Just because you can't or won't appreciate them, it does not mean they do not exist.

Titan wrote:

My guess is Bolt is clean. Ive never seen a sprinter with such physical gifts before. He is the best sprinter of all time, in my book.

kind of like the other super talented sprinters we we just saw and were amazed by and were dirty as sin.

but your guess is cute.

Incidentally, you ignore West Africa itself in your analysis. What does it mean than the US has produced more sprint champions from it's West African descended sprinters than West Africa itself? The pool is West Africa is so much bigger than the US' 41 million, right? Does that make you highly suspicious of US sprinters, or do you have a neat explanation in that case? Let's have a little consistency please.

justthefacts wrote:

Incidentally, you ignore West Africa itself in your analysis. What does it mean than the US has produced more sprint champions from it's West African descended sprinters than West Africa itself? The pool is West Africa is so much bigger than the US' 41 million, right? Does that make you highly suspicious of US sprinters, or do you have a neat explanation in that case? Let's have a little consistency please.

are you truly that dense? does someone have to explain to you why west africans aren't getting in world class training and experience?

Anyone who thinks Jamaica's T&F success is to be attributed to PEDs or Jamaicans winning the genetic lottery needs to pay close attention to how Jamaica arrived where it is at. There is a book out called Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell that I just got done reading that speaks to how otherwise ordinary individual accomplish extraordinary things. Jamaica 's Beijing goldmine is the product of it's 100+ year old high prep and high school championship that draws in tens of thousands of people each year, it is the product of a country that sees T&F as a national sport and not as something that is a stepping stone to other 'real' sports. As Malcolm Gladwell says in Outliers superstars don't arise out of nowhere, propelled by genius and talent: "they are invariably the beneficiaries of hidden advantages and extraordinary opportunities and cultural legacies. j

Jamaica's T&F legacy is built on the backs of people like Herb Mckinley, Don Quarry, Merlene Ottey and the many Jamaican track stars from years gone by. Given the seriousness with which track is taken, Beijing was not only overdue it was inevitable.

Funny you should mention Merlene Ottey who was involved in drug assosication and rumors almost her whole career.

Just as I predicted. Always a way to come up with a logical explanation when you see it convenient, but the apparent inability to do so when you choose not to. You're the dense one if you don't understand the rise of Jamaican athletes, or if you, like the OP, seems to think this is an "unseen" phenomenon or inexplicable occurence.

justthefacts wrote:

Just as I predicted. Always a way to come up with a logical explanation when you see it convenient, but the apparent inability to do so when you choose not to. You're the dense one if you don't understand the rise of Jamaican athletes, or if you, like the OP, seems to think this is an "unseen" phenomenon or inexplicable occurence.

Either you're a moron or just so behind this idea that you don't want to concede anything. You cannot take into consideration every male over the age of 20 and throw him into your pool to make 41 million people. Why aren't Americans as good at soccer if they have so many more people than Spain or Italy. It's because of the training that they receive there. Years and years of training, along with some injuries and a stroke or two of good luck led to what happened in Beijing. Do you watch sports with the sole purpose of tearing down what people do? The reason we watch is to be amazed by things that we cannot do. Yes, there is a PED problem in sports, but sitting around accusing every person who does anything amazing in the sport of being on drugs does not help it. You seem to be enjoying people being on drugs so that when the US does not do well you have an excuse for why we are still better than the other countries.

kind of like the other super talented sprinters we we just saw and were amazed by and were dirty as sin.

but your guess is cute.

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My guess is not being naive.

Sounds like you believe anyone who runs fast is dirty. Tyson Gay is not far behind so he must be dirty also? Michael Johnson? So then the guy just behind him is dirty and the guy just behind him. Where do you draw the line between dirty and clean. 9.95 and above is clean? Maybe you have inside knowledge of Jamaicas training program.

Bolt has been tested many times. No positives

drugs > genetics

ask bob kennedy

The "real" reason to suspect the Jamaicans - not just Bolt - is that even in just one international championship they have done things that are HUGE anomalies. Even from this one championship, it is abundantly clear that SOMETHING is skewed towards the Jamaicans. (quote)

Not quite - the Jamaicans haven’t suddenly emerged, they’ve have always had a unique aptitude for running fast.

I think it must be something in their genes, because they’re also certainly the most the most aggressive and violent of our immigrant population, which is probably a useful aid in explosive events.

Way back at the 52 Olympics, Herb McKenley was within a hundredth of winning to 100mt gold and wasn’t far behind fellow countryman George Rhoden, first and second in the 400.

When McKenley then anchored the 4 by 400 team to victory, beating the mighty USA, sports fans back then all wondered how it was a tiny island….

And I think I can safely declare that drugs weren’t a factor then.

More recent, three quarters of the Canadian team that beat the US at Atlanta were Jamaican.

And of course, Jamaican, Donovan Bailey, (representing Canada) won the 100mt gold.

As did our Linford Christie, who won the gold for us (Britain) at Barcelona - but he also was Jamaican.

I’ve visited Jamaica a few times - once I was given the tour of the Myers Rum distillery.

Still remember getting pissed out of my mind - maybe it’s the rum that’s the secret ingredient.

I think that Noone will be able to beat Bolt.

NOW we are getting somewhere.

I was comparing Jamaican and US athletes to keep it simple. Obviously there are others.

However, apart from economics, note a theory that says that West Africans still in Africa did not have the harsh selective pressures of slave ships and brutality narrowing populations to just the strongest individuals, hence the stronger performances of those descended from slave communities. Not very PC I know, but that's a theory about plausible genetic population differences.

Regardless, the entire argument on probability asserts that IF the Jamaican and US athletes came from equivalent gene pools, equivalent opportunities and development, then it is implausible that the Jamaicans would do what they have.

Therefore, something is different in Jamaica with respect to genes, opportunities, or development. That was my entire point in outlining probability. Something IS different in Jamaica.

We are finally starting to see some non-PED cases for what that could be come out with reasonable support. Thank you.

However, apart from economics, note a theory that says that West Africans still in Africa did not have the harsh selective pressures of slave ships and brutality narrowing populations to just the strongest individuals, hence the stronger performances of those descended from slave communities. Not very PC I know, but that's a theory about plausible genetic population differences.

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This theory is way wrong when explaining a reason for sprinting success. Strongets individual does not equate to fastest.

Again when comparing US to Jamaica please note the following:

FOOTBALL, BASKETBALL & BASEBALL!

As another example of the role of cultural influence in Jamaica's sprinting success do take note of the fact that many sprinter's with Jamaican heritage who have gone on to great success while representing other countries. To name just a few Donavan Bailey represented Canada but was born in Jamaica to Jamaican parents. Linford Christie and Tasha Danvers born in the UK to Jamaican parents and though she rarely speaks about it Sanya Richards the current 400m champ was born and raised

in Jamaica through her 13th birthday and now runs for

the US - she even still has an accent. What they all have in common is that they were surrounded by track from an early age, no

doubt exposed to it by parents who revered track stars.

You could say healthiest or most vigorous, whatever, but in those terms strongest and fastest are parallel tracks. Take a look at the builds of the guys lining up for the 100 and that is evident.

Its not my theory, but it does fit with the fact that few actual West Africans have had great success when the majority of genetically West African people live in West Africa, so its worth mentioning.

Interest and participation rate in track definitely a factor. All of the distractions in the US do level the field, but on the women's side that should be less of an influence, and the Jamaicans have been just as anomalous there.

When siblings succeed at something then genetics is obviously a factor. The Jamaicans aren't siblings, but some degree of common ancestry could play a role. That would be a very interesting study.

In the US, CA, TX, and FL have the highest number of sprinters mostly because they are #1, 2, and 4 in total population. The opportunity aspect is in play as well, since warm weather geographies offer more opportunity to train and develop.

However, this is sprinting, not hockey, so coaching and a head start only go so far. "Outliers" documents very well how a head start and an early physical size advantage are huge in hockey. I really don't think it factors in to the same degree in sprinting since it is much less of a skill than a raw talent. Any kid who is good enough to ultimately be world class is probably going to still get picked up to run in college regardless of what kind of hack coached his high school team. That is definitely not true in something like hockey, tennis, or gymnastics.

If the kid never got involved it all because track was just not the cool thing to do, then that goes back to the participation difference.