AND YOUR WINNER FOR THE 2010 TOUR DE FRANCE IS....

well that post kind of opens up a big can of worms...

but in a nutshell -

The argument is whether Lance is still strong enough to individually win a TDF. Some say no, others yes. This year didn't do much to clarify that situation as many believe (including myself) that Lance was not "allowed to fly" on a couple stages becuase he was instructed to ride "in support" of Alberto Contador. When a rider rides "in support" it often means expending more energy by fighting greater wind resistance at the front of a group or peleton.

If you have not ridden before - wind resistance is HUGE in the cycling world - although you would never guess unless you've experienced it yourself. Rider's in the thick of the peleton expend up to 30% less energy than the rider at the very front of the peleton (if you watch the pedal cadence differences between them - the difference is obvious)

Some here are saying that Lance's riding "in support" this year was simply masking his inability to stay with Alberto in the mountain stages - which could very well be true...

Adding to the debate is the fact that Lance was sidelined shortly before the tour (May) of this year with pretty extensive surgery to his collarbone which was shattered in an early-season race.

So there is the debate - could Lance have won the Tour if HE had been better supported? or not?

I am of the belief that with the right training and a powerful team - he is still capable of pulling it off. He if you watched the stage where Lance spotted Wiggins (a threat to Contador) by riding his back wheel up Le Grand Bornand (while Contador went ahead with the Schleck's and his teammate - Andreas Kloeden - whom he later individually attacked to the detriment of his own teammate) - you would have seen Lance explode past Wiggins in a sight that was somewhat reminiscient of his past days...

It reminded me of a guy still capable of pulling off a Tour win... especially his matching Contador and Schleck pedal for pedal up Mt. Ventoux...

If Lance can come back and beat Alberto in an individual TT - and put together a team that destroys Alberto's in a Team TT (if they have one) - next year's race could be extremely interesting.

But thats my take.

dirtydan wrote:

It reminded me of a guy still capable of pulling off a Tour win... especially his matching Contador and Schleck pedal for pedal up Mt. Ventoux...

Were we watching the same race? I saw Armstrong marking Frank Schleck pedal for pedal while Andy continually put in attacks that distanced himself and Contador from everyone else. Andy would then slow the pace and allow everyone to catch up so they could give another go at trying to get Frank away from Armstrong.

The one time Frank went with Andy, Contador helped Lance bridge the gap almost immediately.

I saw nothing to indicate Andy or Contador was going full bore. Andy was trying to help Frank and Contador was marking Andy and helping Lance where possible.

Things broke up a little in the last 500m which resulted in small time gaps at the finish, but I don't think Ventoux was a good guide for comparing Armstrong's form to Andy and Contador.

I will say that Armstrong climbed better and better as the tour went on. He got trounced by quite a few people on Verbier but by the last day he was third best climber in the field.

Lance didn't go with Contador/Schleck because it would have been stupid. All he had to do was mark Frank and Wiggins to hold on to 3rd. That doesn't mean he couldn't have gone Andy and Contador if he absolutely needed to.

I agree. While at times Lance was lacking the acceleration he had earlier in his career, he chose not to follow AC/A. Schleck's attacks because a) you don't chase down your own teammate who is up the road b) all he needed to do was hold 3rd and c) he would have dragged the other contenders up with him. AC will in next year, but it will be much closer if Lance isn't pulling his punches.

That said, nobody has mentioned Basso, who may return to the tour next year. Let's not forget he was to inherit Lance's tour dominance before the Puerto scandal. He is my pick to win the Vuelta this year.

2010 top 5:

1. Contador

2. Basso

3. Armstrong

4. Wiggins

5. Schleck

Had Andy not been worried about his brother on Ventoux he could have put at least 1min on Armstrong on that climb, though it would have been ultimately pointless, as Contador was easily following his wheel. If you watched that stage Andy was very relaxed and just hoping his brother could follow his moves.

Andy Schleck to Radio Shack next year???

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/andy-schleck-linked-to-radioshack-team

Andy Schleck might just get bought out of his contract by Armstrong (with the understanding he will ride in support for 1 year) and agree to it - because he LOVES LANCE.

People dont seem to understand - LANCE was loved by the peleton this year due to his demeanor and approachability - which could have all been in anticipation of trying to build a powerful team to carry him next year...

He's an expert tactician. - wouldn't be surprised to see Andy take this deal.

If Lance was so strong why did he not attack andy to get 2nd place.He was a beat man holding onto 3rd with no way of dealing with the men ahead of him.

grimpeur wrote:

You fooled me into thinking there was a knowledgeable cycling post on here, until Axel.

We'll know better in October when we find out if there will be a TTT and how many summit finishes there will be in 2010. Plus it should be evident what team AC will be riding for. If he were smart he would go to Garmin, but his ethics may be incompatible.

I disagree. I think Conty's ethics align perfectly with Garmins'...

"Attack your own."

That's what Garmin did on stage 14. They led the peleton's chase of the breakaway group that included Hincapie, which kept George from getting the yellow jersey. Granted, Hincapie doesn't ride for Garmin, but he posed absolutely no threat to Garmin's (or anyone else's) GC contenders.

Conty did the same thing on stage 17 when he attacked Kloden. The Schlecks went with him, but Kloden was dropped. Looking back, that was a decisive factor in Kloden finishing outside of the podium.

Manx Missile wrote:

"Attack your own."

That's what Garmin did on stage 14. They led the peleton's chase of the breakaway group that included Hincapie, which kept George from getting the yellow jersey. Granted, Hincapie doesn't ride for Garmin, but he posed absolutely no threat to Garmin's (or anyone else's) GC contenders.

How is preventing someone on ANOTHER team from getting the yellow attacking your own?

By that point AG2R was too worn out to keep defending the yellow, and Astana was doing much of the work. Garmin didn't want Hincapie in yellow because they wanted Astana to keep doing the work instead of Columbia doing the work in defense of George. Or at least that is how I read the situation.

Hincapie, Columbia, Johan, and Lance all whined about Garmin when it could have been avoided by Hincapie busting his ass to the finish 5 seconds faster.

[quote]dirtydan wrote:

When Phil Ligget and Eddy Mercx both think you're wrong in terms of cycling/peloton politics - YOU'RE WRONG.

Hey DirtyDan,

Phil Liggett seemed pretty angry when Lance's team led the initial chase down of Lance's good friend George, keeping our New Yorker out of yellow for the day.

Gomer

What race were you watching? Astana was crawling the pace to help George when Garmin took over and chased them down...

Nodbody wanted George in Yellow more than Lance and Bruyneel that day.

Cycling is a team sport. Lance can't attack his own teammate when that teammate is leading and has the ability to win. Once Contador is in the clear lead, Lance needs to ride in support of him.

That means when he if misses an attack on the mountains and is riding with a competitor like Wiggens, he can't pull Wiggens back up to the lead group.

That means he can't attack Contador on the Ventoux. His job was to protect his podium spot and to work for Contador if needed. He can't attack for the win and risk having Schleck go with him and gain ground on Contador.

Lance rode the perfect team race. Contador did not.

That said, it was clear that Contador was stronger than Lance this year. The final ITT showed that.

Will he be next year? Probably, but you can't judge Lance's performance this year based on the mountain performance. In each of those, he rode as he needed to ride for his team. It was only the ITT which showed that Lance is not quite as strong as he once was.

With another year of training under his belt. He might get back. Then it will be a really interesting TdF next year.

If Lance was working for contador he should have been on Schlecks wheel doing the work with contador behind him.Lance was not up to the task and could not cover Schleck.He was only hoping to hold on to his position because he could not keep up with Schleck and Contador.There is no shame in that.

I ask you all -

Do these sound like the words of an arrogant champion unwilling to accept the reality that he was not the strongest man in this year's tour (?):

[Armstrong offered high praise for Contador, who won his first Tour in 2007. He said that even at his peak while winning the tour from 1999-2005, he may have lost to his 26-year-old Spanish teammate.

"Contador is that good, so I don't see how I would have been higher than that, even in the other years, I think his performance this year would have beaten my performances in '01 and '04 and '05," Armstrong said, referring to his best years on the Tour.

After the impressive Astana team time trial win in the first week of the race, Armstrong almost seized the coveted yellow jersey, missing by a fraction of a second. His lack of acceleration in the mountains and his failure in the Annecy individual time trial killed any chance of winning.

"Sure, we'll change some things next year but looking back at this season we did everything we wanted to do, aside from the crash everything was pretty much on schedule," said Armstrong, referring to a spill in March when he broke his collarbone.

Impressed by Contador's tour de force, the Texan added the Spaniard was even better than Jan Ullrich, Armstrong's biggest rival during the years he won seven Tours. "Absolutely," he said. "Far better."]

I think it says a lot about Lance - and a lot about Alberto's maturity and respect issues.

If Contador had been 10 years older and had competed against Armstrong during his reign, "it would have been damned close. Much closer than what you all saw back then."

Armstrong, however, expects to perform better in 2010 with his new Radio Shack team, and perhaps even beat Contador.

"I'm staying positive," Armstrong said. "My level will be a little better next year. If he has the same level next year that he has this year, difficult to beat him. That's just a fact, a scientific fact."

Armstrong wants to come to the Tour with a strong outfit, including current teammates Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Kloeden, and together they could challenge Contador.

"There's a lot of variables there," said Armstrong. "My condition, his condition, team tactics, tactics of the race ... But that's why we do the race, so we know."

On Ventoux Lance's job was to help Contador if necessary, and keep his podium position.

There's no dragging going up hill, other than mental, so he did not need to lead Contador. If Andy Schleck had broken away from AC, then you would have seen Lance attempt to help him limit to damage or bridge the gap.

His second job was to keep his podium position. To do that all he needed to do was to mark Frank Schleck and Wiggins. They was no reason to respond to every attack by Andy, unless Contador could not go with it himself. Especially once it was clear all Andy was trying to do is get his brother Frank clear of Wiggins and Lance.

What would have been interesting is if Andy keep going on one of those early attacks. In that case, Lance would have needed to try to get up with them to help Contador if he got in trouble.

But that did not happen. Andy's attacks never last very long.

Look, it was very clear that Contador was the strongest this year. Lance rode well. Even if Contador were on another team and Lance was the clear leader he would not have been able to beat Contador this year, but he would have rode differently.

He would have tried to limit his loses to AC on the first mountain stage. He would have attempted to bridge the gap earlier on the stage where his missed the break and Contador broke Kloden.

He might have even rode the ITT better. To me, it did not look like he was at his limits on that day. It looked like he went out very hard, did not quite feel it, and decided to ride within himself the rest of the way to save it for the Ventoux.

Cycling is a complex sport. Those with a "runner's" mentality often have a difficult time comprehending it.

DirtyDan, you are clueless or disingenuous in your description of what happened.

As for the Merckxs' alleged endorsement - whose name you have yet to spell right in a dozen attempts (on top of mixing up their first names)... Axel Merckx is managing the Livestrong/Trek U23 team: that's right, he is essentially on Armstrong's payroll. ;-)

dirtydan wrote:

Do these sound like the words of an arrogant champion unwilling to accept the reality that he was not the strongest man in this year's tour (?):

No. It's specific post race comments, twitters, the fact that he announced his new team while the tour was still going on, the fact that he skipped Alberto's victory dinner to go out with some Radiosnack folks (maybe Alberto thanked his teammates at the dinner and Lance missed it?), the fact that he publicly questioned his teammate's tactics instead of dealing with it internally, etc.

If the the race had played out in exactly the same manner and Lance had skipped all the "it doesn't take a Nobel prize winner to figure out there was going to be a split" type comments, skipped the twitter nonsense, and held off on his own next project until he was done riding the tour for Astana, then I'd say he handled it admirably. He had the opportunity to take Alberto under his wing and teach him some of the things that Alberto has yet to learn, but instead he turned it into a spitting contest. Again, going back to the day of the crosswind, if Lance is really being the consummate teammate and doing everything he can to aid AC, then why does he not say "Hey, AC, with winds like this there is bound to be a split. Stay on my wheel today and I'll get you on the right end of it."

And not only that, but I remember how during one of the stages Armstrong spit off to the side, with Contador riding behind him. Although he did not spit directly at Contador, it was a windy day and you just know some of the spittle had to land on (or near) Alberto. Lance was clearly disrespecting him.

Oh, and also, it would not surprise me (although I can't prove this) if Lance hadn't taken a few deliberate farts while Alberto was riding behind him. Just to spite him.