AND YOUR WINNER FOR THE 2010 TOUR DE FRANCE IS....

Lance lost because he was riding for AC, which won't be the case next year. Contador had all the support and people working for him. Lance didn't save his energy for the TT like AC did. If Lance had the full support of a team (which would invariably be better than any team AC could find... he has the $$$) and raced AC, he would probably win.

And so what if LA has an ego. If any one of us made the money he does because he was the greatest athlete in his sport it would be hard not to. If I got bashed as often as he did I wouldn't be too nice to everyone either.

I think Wiggins will make the podium next year. He has only just started preparing specifically for the tour after years of Olympic pursuit riding. He is still young and there is a lot of progress still to come from him. With him, Contador, the "Shrek" bros and Lance, it'll be a great race.

How would you react if you knew you were the best rider in your team and probably the race, and your DS was doing his utmost to make sure another guy in your team won?

Contador did what he had to do. Armstrong will now use his political sway to make sure all the fanboys wail about how he was hard done by (not too hard, judging by these threads).

Lance will learn his lesson. He needs to make sure his next set of teammates can't think for themselves.

dom wrote:

Lance lost because he was riding for AC, which won't be the case next year. Contador had all the support and people working for him. Lance didn't save his energy for the TT like AC did. If Lance had the full support of a team (which would invariably be better than any team AC could find... he has the $$$) and raced AC, he would probably win.

Look, I disagree with a few points made by the original poster, but at least he makes good arguments. Unlike you.

I think it will depend on the route...TeamRadioShack next year will essentially be Astana minus Contador and Paulinho - Horner will be taking Paulinho's place though, so that's a wash. If Prudhomme and the organizers throw another Team Time Trail in, and Contador ends up on a crappy team...that could make things interesting.

Contador is still under contract with Astana, and the companies sponsoring Astana fully intend for Vinokourov to return to the team and to be ridden for as he is a Kazakh hero. Conti will be trying like hell to get out from under that contract...

I'd really love it if Lance and Johan got the old band back together and somehow brought Hincapie along with them to TRS...

Also, as was previously mentioned - The x-factor here is Andy Schleck. If he can learn to time trial better (he did improve this year), and to not worry so much about his brother's well-being, he will undoubtedly be a major factor.

Those three are your podium again, barring unforeseen circumstances...

I don't think the strength of the team is too important unless there's a team time trial. I don't see Armstrong reaching the same fitness as Contador.

Lance took off 3 years, got hurt shortly before the Tour and still finished 3rd. If people can't see that he can come back next year with better fitness i'm not sure you understand how endurance training and peaking works. What he did with the limited amount of training is nothing short of amazing. If he would have been on another team than Contador he would have finished second and probably less than 2 minutes behind.

i gotta think schleck is just going to get stronger with age. he's close to matching contador and with a stronger team and a stronger TT, he's got a really good shot.

i don't think hincapie would go with radio shack even if they made him an offer. he's got a great role with columbia helping cav win stages and he'd be just another domestique on the radio shack team. i suspect that popo, levi, horner, and possibly kloden will be radio shack. don't know much about rast.

i also think vino believes that the astana team will revolve around him. i'm sure contador can find a way out of his contract.

Well Axel was a little better then a just a domestique - Olympic bronze medal on the roads, National champion of Belgium and current team director of the the Trek Livestrong U23 team (Davis Phinney's son in on this team; look out for him; Taylor Phinney is very strong. Its hard to fill shoes of Eddie Merckx - Ala Jordan - best there ever was. The Cannibal ripped it up Viva La Eddie.

Team, team, team, yada, yada. Cycling ain't basketball. You can draft off anyone, regardless of whether they are your teammate. The effects of drafting are minimal to non-existent on the big climbs; sure there's a psychological boost of having supportive company but that's not much different from a running race. Contador and ASchleck would have been 1-2 regardless of what team they were on.

Even if Lance had a full team and Contador was all alone, I'd still peg berto as the favorite. The only way Contador loses to anyone other than Andy Schleck is if one of the other contenders gets into a major breakaway and none of the teams chase. The odds of that are somewhere between slim and none, because once a contender gets in a breakaway every team who has a rider with a legitimate chance starts pulling like crazy. All Alberto has to do is finish in the same pack as Lance on the flat stages and he beats Lance, because he can out-TT and outclimb him any day of the week.

Whether Lance was fatigued from riding in support of Contador or from not being totally in race shape, he definitely lacked that "get up and go" when he needed it most. Generally, he was just hanging, albeit amongst the most elite cyclists in the world. But, it was an impressive effort, indeed, to make the podium. His biggest challenge is his age. He will be just weeks shy of turning 39 years old during next year's tour, and that's right around when the wheels start falling off, particularly the recovery after grueling day-in and day-out efforts. Maybe this guy will miraculously win the tour next year. He's certainly shown a knack for the incredulous in the past. Personally, if that were to happen, I think it would be a bigger story than his seven in a row. Of course, he may find that his form is good but not great leading up to the tour and revise his plans. It will be interesting.

God knows I've been wrong before, but Lance just doesn't seem to have that gear to drop guys in the mountains that he had some 10 years ago, and he admitted as much. Sure, he hasn't been racing as a pro for a few years now, but he certainly kept a high level of fitness. Another podium finish would be outstanding next year if he does, in fact, ride. But every year that he inches toward 40 makes it less and less likely that he can win. I'll take the field.

i'm not so sure it was really smart for lance or any of the main guys who are riding the tour to also ride the giro.

the recover, especially for an older guy, from a 3 week stage race has got to take it's toll.

i think alot of these guys will be better off next year when the do the tour of california in may instead of the giro.

dirtydan wrote:

(For those that don't understand cycling - Eddy Mercx is the ONLY cyclist to dominate grand tours as well as spring classics and various single stage races - in short, he dominated every aspect of the sport whereas Lance is known as having dominated the tour)

Thanks for the info dirtydan, but last time I checked it was you that didn't know your Eddy's from your Axel's.

funky colin miller

thanks for pointing that out again - I slipped and put Eddy's son's name in my original post instead of his - so sue me - I thought I clearly articulated my argument which appears to be more than what you've managed thus far

you didn't seem to mention that Eddy Mercx AGREED w/ Lance and Liggett that Alberto acted foolishly in defiance of the peleton - a major point I tried to bring to people's attention...

I await yours!

Cheers

News Flash: The entire peloton will be a year older next year. That's good for Contador, Schleck, Nibali, Kruezinger, etc. That's bad for Evans and Kloeden, and really really bad for Armstrong and Leipheimer.

When Armstrong won his last Tour in '05, it was already clear that he was no longer the explosive rider he had been in the hills. He could ride tempo all day, and it happened to be enough to shell everyone. He's not going to all of a sudden get back to 2003 form in 2010.

I get the feeling Team Radio Shack might be team Geriatrics. Armstrong, Leipheimer, Chris Horner. Glad Armstrong brings attention and money to the sport, but still don't like the guy.

In response to the first post:

Riders in the peloton really felt this way? I dunno. It just seems odd to discredit a rider for stamping his authority on a team, particularly when the management seemed inclined to favor Armstrong. Given that there was a great deal of ambiguity over who was the boss of the Astana squad, I saw nothing unreasonable about Contador's attacks that apparently occurred "without permission." He finished first on his team in the prologue, but that was not enough to give me leader status, so he had to hammer his opposition a few times (which happened to include Lance Armstrong and Andreas Kloden). If Armstrong had done the same thing to Contador in the Pyrenees and Alps, I certainly could not have blamed him.

Everyone saying that team doesn't matter in the tour must not watch it. Name the riders in the top ten from weak teams. I'll say it again, Lance has only been riding for less than a year. If you know anything about endurance running or cycling, base means everything. Lance didn't have the base he'll have next year. Whole new race. Conti might not find a top team that wants him. He's not a team player. Again, you have to have a team to win. Conti had Lance, he won't next year. Conti was the reason the team didn't like him, but they still helped him win.